Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:The inflow out of the south was a hint that it could have a "LLC". Now theres west wind, but anyways it should not have much time.
Yeah but i don' like that: convection is lacking, where are you convection??!!!
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Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:The inflow out of the south was a hint that it could have a "LLC". Now theres west wind, but anyways it should not have much time.
simeon9benjamin wrote:This is a TD and should be called one in the morning.
cycloneye wrote:This is what we expect here later today and tonight as the wave moves mainly south of Puerto Rico.
000
FXCA62 TJSJ 030903
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
503 AM AST THU JUL 3 2008
.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW HAVE BEEN
PUSHING ACROSS THE VI AND SECTIONS OF EASTERN PUERTO RICO
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE DURING THE LATE MORNING
HOURS...AND FOR TPW TO CONTINUE ON AN UPWARD TREND...AS THE
TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES THIS
MORNING...CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA. WHILE SOME CIRCULATION
AND SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EVIDENT WITH THIS WAVE...EXPECT THE
MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AHEAD OF IT TO INHIBIT ANY FURTHER
ORGANIZATION AS IT CONTINUES WEST NORTHWESTWARD. LATEST GFS AND
NAM HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT ANALYSIS OF THIS WAVE AS IT
PASSES MAINLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH GFS
SIGNIFICANTLY MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP. EITHER WAY...SHOULD SEE
AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME RAIN BANDS AND GUSTY WINDS MOVING
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. MADE SOME
MODIFICATIONS TO SHORT TERM GRIDS TO REFLECT TIMING OF THIS
WAVE...AS IT APPEARS TO HAVE SLOWED A BIT OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES...WHICH PUTS FORECAST MORE IN LINE WITH LATEST NAM
GUIDANCE. ONCE THIS WAVE PUSHES WEST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...EXPECT
A MODIFIED SAL TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. A SURFACE REFLECTION OF TUTT MAY MOVE ACROSS THE ISLANDS
LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BUT OPTED NOT TO INCREASE POPS FOR SUNDAY
JUST YET.
A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM.
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