7/9/03 5:00 PM Model Plot tracks

#2 Postby **vbhoutex** » Wed Jul 09, 2003 3:59 pm

I don't like what I see!! Not because it is a bad map, but because it tells me what I already know and that is the longer Claudette stays weak, the further west she is likely to come! :grr:

Once she is in the GOM she will be in better conditions for development too.

Rainband · #3 Postby **Rainband** » Wed Jul 09, 2003 4:00 pm

Could be..be ready but mexico may kill her too!!!! :wink:

#4 Postby **Steve** » Wed Jul 09, 2003 4:08 pm

Doubtful that the YP gets her RB.

Hey VB, if you haven't read the 5:00 NHC Discussion, it gives a great explanation as to what the models are doing and their future thinking. It made a lot of sense to me as a justification for a Mex/Tex threat down the road. I'm not buying it hook, line and sinker yet, but the indications are there.

Steve

Rainband · #5 Postby **Rainband** » Wed Jul 09, 2003 4:13 pm

Steve wrote:Doubtful that the YP gets her RB.

Hey VB, if you haven't read the 5:00 NHC Discussion, it gives a great explanation as to what the models are doing and their future thinking. It made a lot of sense to me as a justification for a Mex/Tex threat down the road. I'm not buying it hook, line and sinker yet, but the indications are there.

Steve

Why is this storm so unpredicatable is it because of the lack of storms in this area in JULY?? This is hilarious in my book!!! It's caused more headaches then a LF cane!!!! :lol:

crazy4disney · #6 Postby **crazy4disney** » Wed Jul 09, 2003 4:14 pm

Oh, I don't like that at ALL....

#7 Postby **Steve** » Wed Jul 09, 2003 4:20 pm

Yeah you rite RB. There's just no telling. Claudette may well be changing historical perspectives on her own. Hey, I don't have to tell anyone here that the entire 2003 Hurricane Season is changing historical perspectives for that matter.

I'd say we're in for plenty more thrills and spills before October's up.

Steve

#8 Postby **vbhoutex** » Wed Jul 09, 2003 4:22 pm

Steve wrote:Doubtful that the YP gets her RB.

Hey VB, if you haven't read the 5:00 NHC Discussion, it gives a great explanation as to what the models are doing and their future thinking. It made a lot of sense to me as a justification for a Mex/Tex threat down the road. I'm not buying it hook, line and sinker yet, but the indications are there.

Steve

Indications are definitely there. The furhter west they move the progs each time, the better I feel! That being said, I will reserve judgement on the track past friday till things clear up a little down the road. So far the track had been parallel and just south of the NHC progs. With the way she is "fading in and out" I figure anything is possible with Claudette, but overall I do expect a possible minimal Hurricane at Yucatan landfall or at least a strong TS. Refer to above for comments past that time. BTW, anyone know a good hair weaver?? :lol:

:o

I've already pulled all mine out! :roll:

Rainband · #9 Postby **Rainband** » Wed Jul 09, 2003 4:35 pm

Steve wrote:Yeah you rite RB. There's just no telling. Claudette may well be changing historical perspectives on her own. Hey, I don't have to tell anyone here that the entire 2003 Hurricane Season is changing historical perspectives for that matter.

I'd say we're in for plenty more thrills and spills before October's up.

Steve

I agree 100% :wink:

Stormsfury · #10 Postby **Stormsfury** » Wed Jul 09, 2003 4:35 pm

IMO, the "fading in and out" with Claudette has played havoc with the model plots today ... she's weakening and losing the LLC, but WAIT, here she comes again with a new burst and the pressures back and forth ... the rapid fluctuations likely played havoc with regards to tracking a stronger storm, a weaker storm ... steered by the immediate surrounding environment which the models read only into how shallow or deep Claudette is ... and that played into everything with this worm-like juggling ... Anyway, I'm going to view the globals/ensembles and see if any "help" is available there ...

The only thing that seems more certain is the Yucatan Peninsula has some problems to deal with and her name's Claudette ... after that ... way too many :?:

s to be answered ...

This isn't going to be an easy time for forecasters both pro and amateur...

SF

GulfBreezer · #11 Postby **GulfBreezer** » Wed Jul 09, 2003 5:24 pm

While the models are shifting her more to the west and leaving out the "hook" back to the NE, aren't they jumping the gun a bit?? It seems to me that it is all going to depend on the timing of the frontal boundary as to whether she changes direction or not? Just curious..........

ColdFront77 · #12 Postby **ColdFront77** » Wed Jul 09, 2003 6:17 pm

GulfBreezer, that is my belief as well, with all tropical cyclones, especially a system like Claudette. The center is located far enough south that with the current fast speed and forecast for the system to slow down as the frontal system moves toward the southeastern United States..... the models all being similar taking Claudette more to the west is in my opinion jumping the gun.

After all, models are used for guidance, in this case, looks like it should be taken model run by model run.

7/9/03 5:00 PM Model Plot tracks

7/9/03 5:00 PM Model Plot tracks

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