The image clearly shows a long outflow boundary progressing to the west out ahead of Claudette. It is now very difficult to identify a circulation (at the surface) on satellite. Whenever you see such an outfow boundary moving outward from a tropical storm, it's generally a sign that the end may be near (of a closed circulation).
Now I wonder... The NHC refused to upgrade the "tropical wave" with 45kt sustained wind measured at the surface because recon could find no wind with a westerly component. I haven't seen any recon indicating a closed circulation yet, though we did get 3-4 vortex messages in the last 4-5 hours. If the plane doesn't find any SW-W winds will the NHC downgrade Claudette to a wave at 4pm?
Of course, the answer to that is of course not. In fact, they just indicated it's strengthening based on one 65kt flight level wind about 80-100 miles to the northeast of the center in an isolated squall. They're not at 10,000 ft, they're at 1500 feet, though. So the reduction to sea level would be 30%, or about 45 kts - but only in that squall removed from the center. I haven't seen any indications of surface wind over 40kts from the recon.
My thinking on this one has definitely changed. I just got fed up with the NHC's "track compression". They just stall the storm after 72 hours, refusing to commit to anything. If you measure the distance covered during the first 9 hours, for example, you find 17kts and not the 20kts the storm is presently moving at. But after 72 hours, it's a 4kt crawl to the NW. Clearly, they don't want to actually forecast where the storm will be at 120hrs - just as they used to do at 72 hours in previous years. Therefore, I now think there may be a 60% or better chance that CLaudette will remain a weak storm or even a wave/TD and hit the southern Yucatan, emerge into the BOC around 15Z Friday, then move inland into Mexico near Tampico (or just north of there) at 96hrs.
We'll see.
At this point..
my Cowboys 
We shall see 
