TC Bertha

[MiamiensisWx]

Can someone post the links to the ATCF file directory and the SAB tropical cyclone classification (satellite) data? Thanks!

[cycloneye]

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/

[MiamiensisWx]

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/

Thanks! Can I receive the link to the SAB T numbers as well?

[cycloneye]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

[Category 5]

Looks like we could finally have an active Cape Verde season.. hasn't happened since '04.

well, we've had plenty of Cape Verde born storms, but they just take a long time to get going.

We've pretty much had 3 long track CV storms in the last three years (Irene, Helene, Dean) and calling Helene and Dean long track is being generous. It's amazing how patterns shift. Remember 1995-2000? And 2003-2004? Alot of long tracks in those periods.

[MiamiensisWx]

We've pretty much had 3 long track CV storms in the last three years (Irene, Helene, Dean) and calling Helene and Dean long track is being generous. It's amazing how patterns shift. Remember 1995-2000? And 2003-2004? Alot of long tracks in those periods.

Helene and Dean were certainly long tracked tropical cyclones of Cape Verde origin. Both systems attained TS intensity east of 40 W as well.

[KWT]

Yep thats probably fair enough though what about Gordon 06, that was pretty long tracked as well, maybe Emily category-5?

Also thanks for the links cycloneye, does anyone have the link for the quick updating IR image in the east Atlantic?

[jaxfladude]

Looks like we could finally have an active Cape Verde season.. hasn't happened since '04.

Well thanks a lot:

[WmE]

Yep thats probably fair enough though what about Gordon 06, that was pretty long tracked as well, maybe Emily category-5?

Also thanks for the links cycloneye, does anyone have the link for the quick updating IR image in the east Atlantic?

Emily became a TD about at 43 W, so I wouldn't exactly call that a Cape Verde System, though one could argue about that. Gordon developd near 54 W, so definitly no Cape Verde System. Both however were long tracked,

[MiamiensisWx]

BEGIN
NHC
invest_al922008.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200807021845
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 92, 2008, DB, O, 2008070106, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL922008
AL, 92, 2008063006, , BEST, 0, 107N, 102W, 25, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2008063018, , BEST, 0, 109N, 128W, 25, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2008070100, , BEST, 0, 110N, 140W, 25, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2008070106, , BEST, 0, 112N, 153W, 25, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 120, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 92, 2008070112, , BEST, 0, 114N, 165W, 25, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 120, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 92, 2008070118, , BEST, 0, 115N, 177W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 120, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 92, 2008070200, , BEST, 0, 117N, 186W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 120, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 92, 2008070206, , BEST, 0, 118N, 195W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 120, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 92, 2008070212, , BEST, 0, 120N, 204W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 120, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 92, 2008070218, , BEST, 0, 120N, 210W, 25, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 120, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/invest_al922008.invest

It remains an INVEST as of 18Z. Additional thunderstorms are now initiating very close to the LLC again.

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/SDDI/html/images/out/SDDI-20080702-2045-MPEF-09-MPE-04-1237.jpg

[KWT]

Yep still an invest and still not any better organised, nice wart like thunderstorm area going up close to the center however which is good for this system but needs to do far more then that, still we shall see if that trend continues with the Dmax tonight.

The only thing really to note MiamiensisWx is that the track is due west with the center at 21W and 12N so no sign of WNW yet.

[P.K.]

Meteo-France bulletin released an hour ago.

FQNT52 LFPW 022049

A
SECURITE
Weather bulletin for METAREA 2, METEO-FRANCE
Toulouse, Wednesday 2 July 2008 at 21 UTC.

- Wind speed in BEAUFORT SCALE - Sea : Total significant -
- Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger
than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice
the significant height.


Part 1 : WARNING : 339


Part 2 : General synopsis, Wednesday 2 at 12 UTC

Low 986 58N15W, slowly filling with little move, expected 1000
58N24W by 04/00UTC.
New low expected 1006 45N25W by 3/00 UTC, then moving east and
deepening, expected 1002 45N21W by 3/12 UTC, then 1000 47N15W by
04/00UTC.
High 1028 35N38W, drifting west, expected 1028 36N42W by 4/00 UTC.

Strong tropical wave along 22W south of 19N moving W 10-15 kt ;
associated low 1011.
Tropical wave is along 37W/38W south of 19N, moving W 15 kt..
ITCZ along 10N17W 09N30W 06N42W.



Part 3 : Forecasts to Friday 4 at 00 UTC

FARADAY :
Cyclonic 4 to 6, at times 7 in far south soon. Rough. Rain or
showers, locally thundery.

ROMEO :
Westerly 4 or 5, becoming Cyclonic 5 to 7 from Southwest soon,
increasing occasionally 8 later. Severe gusts. Rough, northwest
swell. Rain or showers, locally thundery. Gusts.

ALTAIR :
West or Southwest 6 or 7, veering West or Northwest 5 or 6 later.
Rough or very rough. Rain or showers, locally thundery.

CHARCOT :
Westerly 3 to 5, backing Southwesterly 6 or 7 from west soon,
veering Westerly 5 to 7 later. Rough or very rough, northwest
swell. Rain or showers, locally thundery. Gusts.

ACORES :
West or Southwest 4 to 6, from south to north, veering West or
Northwest 3 to 5 later. Moderate or rough. Showers.

JOSEPHINE :
North or Northwest 3 or 4, backing West or Southwest 4 to 6 from
north soon. Rough in northwest swell. Showers.

IRVING :
Northeast 2 to 4, backing Northerly later. Moderate.

MADEIRA :
Northeast 3 to 5, backing Northerly 2 to 4 in northwest later.
Moderate or rough in northwest swell.

PAZENN :
West or Northwest 4 or 5, backing Southwesterly 3 or 4 later, then
increasing Southerly 5 to 7 from southwest at end. Severe gusts.
Rough by west or northwest swell. Rain or showers, locally
thundery. Gusts.

IROISE, YEU :
Southwest 4 or 5, veering Westerly 3 or 4 soon, backing gradually
Southerly later. Rough by west swell, decreasing later. Rain or
showers, locally thundery. Gusts.

ROCHEBONNE :
West or Southwest 4 or 5, veering Westerly 3 or 4 soon, backing
gradually Southerly later. Rough by west swell, decreasing later.
Rain or showers, locally thundery. Gusts.

CANTABRICO :
Westerly 3 to 5, temporarily 5 or 6 in west overnight and in the
morning, then backing South or Southeast 3 to 5 at end. Rough by
west swell, decreasing later. Rain or showers, locally thundery.
Gusts.

FINISTERRE :
West or Northwest 4 or 5, at times 6 overnight , locally 3 or 4 in
south, backing South or Southwest 3 to 5 later, then increasing
Southerly 6 or 7. Severe gusts. Rough by west or northwest swell.
Rain or showers, locally thundery. Gusts.

PORTO :
Northwest 3 or 4, backing Southwest 4 to 6 later. Rough by west
swell, decreasing later.

SAO VICENTE :
North or Northwest 4 to 6, locally backing West or Southwest 3 or
4 later. Rough by west swell, decreasing later.

CADIZ :
Northwesterly 4 to 6, decreasing 3 to 5 later. Slight or moderate.


GIBRALTAR STRAIT :
Westerly 4 or 5, increasing 5 or 6 later. Moderate. Slight or
moderate.

CASABLANCA :
Northeasterly 5 or 6, at times 7 in far southeast. Rough by west or
northwest swell.

AGADIR :
North or Northeast 6 or 7, but occasionally 8 in northeast
overnight, locally 5 or 6 in south. Rough by west or northwest
swell.


METEOR :
Northeast 4 or 5. Moderate locally rough.
CANARIAS :
Northeast 5 or 6. Moderate or rough.
TARFAYA :
North or Northeast 4 to 6. Rough.
CAPE VERDE :
Northeast 4 or 5, increasing 5 or 6 in southeast soon locally 7 at
end. Moderate or rough. Thundersqualls with severe gusts in far
southeast.
CAP BLANC :
Northeast 4 to 6. Moderate or rough.



CAP TIMIRIS :
Northeast 3 to 5, locally East or Southeast 4 to 6 in south and
West or Northwest 3 or 4 in far east. Moderate locally rough in
south. Thundersqualls with severe gusts in south.
SIERRA LEONE :
In west : North or Northeast 3 or 4 backing gradually West or
Northwest 4 or 5 from east, becoming cyclonic 5 to 7 in east at end
: in east : cyclonic 5 to 7, becoming South or Southeast from east
later, decreasing 4 to 6 at end. Severe gusts. Moderate or rough.
Thundersqualls with severe gusts.
GULF OF GUINEA :
South or Southeast 3 or 4 in west, South or Southwest 3 or 4 in
east. Moderate locally rough in far west. Thundersqualls with
severe gusts in north and near coasts.
POINTE NOIRE :
Southeast 3 or 4 at times 5 in far west, but Southerly 2 to 4 in
far east. Moderate locally rough in far west.



Part 4 : Outlook for next 24 hours :

Threat of Cyclonic gale in PAZENN.
Elsewhere no gale expected.

[MiamiensisWx]

Convection is developing directly over the southwestern portion of the LLC near 12N and 21W.

IR imagery

[soonertwister]

I sure like this resource at NRL Monterrey. Clink on the link in the left column for this storm.

Tons of information on each system.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html

[Aric Dunn]

here is the best visible loop i believe .. at least in respect to actually have a image every hour that is not blurry.. its shows the motion and a little more detail .. the center is still riding the 12n or just below 12n line..

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_ ... 16vis.html

omit frames 9 10 and 11

[Eyewall]

[KWT]

LLC very evident there cycloneye as it has been for the last few scans.

MiamiensisWx, yep though we need to see this continue if we are going to get closer to a TD because we saw a similar thing occured earlier in the late morning hours. Oh yeah nice loop Aric you can see the broad circulation quite well there.

[Eyewall]

021400Z JUL 08
FM NMFC
TO FNMOC
BT
UNCLAS
MSGID/NLMC/OVLY2/0087/JUL
OVLY/TCFA/021400Z7/JUL/1OF1/TCFA AL9208/METOC
LINE/2//G/120000N3/0200000W2/130600N0/0270600W5
LINE/2//G/135400N3/0194200W6/100000N1/0202400W8
LINE/2//G/100000N1/0202400W8/110600N8/0273000W2
LINE/2//G/110600N8/0273000W2/150000N6/0264800W0
LINE/2//G/150000N6/0264800W0/135400N3/0194200W6
TEXT/20//G/090000N9/0233600W4/TCFA AL9208
TEXT/20//G/080000N8/0233600W4/VALID UNTIL 031200Z
TEXT/20//G/070000N7/0233600W4/WINDS: 25-30 KTS
TEXT/20//G/060000N6/0233600W4/MVG: W AT 13 KNOTS
ENDAT
BT
#0001
NNNN

[tropicsPR]

convection increasing:

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/SDDI/cgi/lis ... v=400,pp=0

[Aric Dunn]

here is the latest quikscat close up....

i see a couple 30kt wind barb