TC Bertha

[Aric Dunn]

well here it is..

load the full size image

[KWT]

Ok, it doesn't look bad Aric and there is some decent convection but its not all that widespread still. To be honest I don't think this will become a tropical depression yet until it gets further west back into the warmer waters later in its journey.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Ok, it doesn't look bad Aric and there is some decent convection but its not all that widespread still. To be honest I don't think this will become a tropical depression yet until it gets further west back into the warmer waters later in its journey.

The centeral Atlantic is way way more hostile to tropical cyclone development. If it don't become a depression in the next 36 hours it won't ever become one. At least I believe so, unless the "wave" moves into the caribbean or Western Atlatnic north of the Islands that is.

[gatorcane]

Well it looks like a false alarm on TD status. I really never though this invest had a chance to begin with. I still can't get over SHIPS predicting an 85K hurricane

I still expect a downgrade in the NHC 2:00pm EST outlook. You should see yellow probability on their map instead of orange.

In the meantime the EPAC is cranking storms out left and right and where you can see some real invests

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Well it looks like a false alarm on TD status. I really never though this invest had a chance to begin with. I still can't get over SHIPS predicting an 85K hurricane

I still expect a downgrade in the NHC 2:00pm EST outlook. You should see yellow probability on their map instead of orange.

It is really weird that the models been trying to make this a strong tropical storm or hurricane at 13-16 north/36-42 west the last few days in that area. The TUTT will KILL anything that trys to get into the centeral Atlantic. SAL is also stronger around that area.

[KWT]

Not really Matt though shear isn't progged to be all that high at all in fact at least until 144hrs and SSt's start to increase past 40W...there may be a TUTT further north but thats not going to be a player until it gets up around 25N IMO.

Gatorcane they will NOT lower, why should they when its still got convection firing near the center and a clear closed LLC, if anything they will up it to code red now we have a TCFA issued as well.

[gatorcane]

Well it looks like a false alarm on TD status. I really never though this invest had a chance to begin with. I still can't get over SHIPS predicting an 85K hurricane

I still expect a downgrade in the NHC 2:00pm EST outlook. You should see yellow probability on their map instead of orange.

It is really weird that the models been trying to make this a strong tropical storm or hurricane at 13-16 north/36-42 west the last few days in that area. The TUTT will KILL anything that trys to get into the centeral Atlantic. SAL is also stronger around that area.

Matt that is a good point. The TUTT low moved into the Caribbean late last week and is one gigantic blocker for the islands and CONUS from anything coming in from the east anyway.

But having such a TUTT in July is pretty typical and is why the Caribbean is generally pretty quiet in July (at least the Central and Eastern Caribbean)

[Frank2]

If it don't become a depression...

If it duzn't become a depression...

LOL

P.S. It is heading into a large area of dry air, so - not much behind this disturbance, either...

[gatorcane]

If it don't become a depression...

If it duzn't become a depression...

LOL

P.S. It is heading into a large area of dry air, so - not much behind this disturbance, either...

Frank agreed. Wouldn't surprise me if we have to wait 4-5 weeks again before something decent gets going in the Cape Verde area.

[KWT]

Umm Frank the air isn't that dry around the system and considering its moving west there is still quite a large moisture package with it, not enough dry air to stop development IMO the only thing that will is lower SST's further west, anyway here is the moisture at 12z:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/wv-l.jpg

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Not really Matt though shear isn't progged to be all that high at all in fact at least until 144hrs and SSt's start to increase past 40W...there may be a TUTT further north but thats not going to be a player until it gets up around 25N IMO.

Gatorcane they will NOT lower, why should they when its still got convection firing near the center and a clear closed LLC, if anything they will up it to code red now we have a TCFA issued as well.

Your right, but I'm pissed off because it played us for over 2 hours earlier today.

[Frank2]

Yes, as others have noted, the TUTT is well in place at this time...

[curtadams]

C'mon guys, you should have known better than to expect an upgrade. Since when is a relatively tight LLC with 30 kt winds and associated deep convection separated from fronts and the ICTZ a tropical depression? It takes a lot more than that to earn an upgrade!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Yes, as others have noted, the TUTT is well in place at this time...

Once you get past 45 west yes it is.

[cycloneye]

693
ABNT20 KNHC 021739
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...IS
CENTERED ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED
TODAY...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10-15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Derek Ortt]

conditions may be the most favorable as they will be all season for this one

shear is NOT likely to be a factor farther west. Dry air is not likely an issue (because there is no shear).

how many times do we have little to no shear/dry air concerns in this part of the basin?

[Jason_B]

P.S. It is heading into a large area of dry air, so - not much behind this disturbance, either...

...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10-15 MPH.

NHC obviously thinks otherwise.

[KWT]

Exactly Derek there is dry air and SAL but thats way to the north of this system. The only thing that is questionable though Derek has to be those SST's, they do look a little on the low side for any development once we get past the next 36hrs or so. I honestly don't think this will be a TD yet until it can make it into the higher SST's again close to 40W but we will see!

[SouthFloridawx]

I agree with Matt.

The SSTS are about as good as they are going to get for this system. Using the 06Z GFS from the cyclone phase page, you can see they have incorporated the SST'S. As you can see here, it is traveling through some of the warmest waters in the area there. Even if it were to move directly west for the next 5 days, it would encounter cooler waters on it's way.

IMHO: If it doesn't acquire tropical depression status in the next 72 hours, perhaps as it heads nw later it could acquire some kind of sub-tropical status.

Ok, it doesn't look bad Aric and there is some decent convection but its not all that widespread still. To be honest I don't think this will become a tropical depression yet until it gets further west back into the warmer waters later in its journey.

[HURAKAN]

I go away for two and half hours and 92L advances 6 pages. We need to either relax or have a storm in the Atlantic to calm our nerves!