TC Bertha

[wyq614]

So where can we see the French "next bulletin"?

[srainhoutx]

DIE 92L, DIE!!!

And now, back to our regularly-scheduled programming...

Seeing that vacation time fly out the window.

[Chacor]

So where can we see the French "next bulletin"?

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... QNT50.LFPW

18z should be the next bulletin.

[Blown Away]

At 12N/20W it's only 15 days away from SFL.

[oyster_reef]

models say fish... all of them that i've seen.

[MiamiensisWx]

Convection is starting to fire in the immediate vicinity of the LLC... note the new thunderstorm development.

Loop

Organization is starting to improve very slightly.

Latest imagery

[KWT]

Well the 992mbs estimate is clearly wrong, 1009mbs sounds far more likely given its developmental stage. Hopefully we will finally figure out whether this is TD2 or not soon because this is really tiring trying to figure it all out!

Also yep its starting to get a little better organised, still doesn't look great mind you but everything has to start somewhere, the D-max tomorrow is going to be key.

[Aric Dunn]

well if this image is not close enough for everyone... i dont know glasses would be a good buy...

center is located at 11.8 n 21w ver clearly with some convection covering the center slightly...

make sure you view the full sized image

[Ed Mahmoud]

At 12N/20W it's only 15 days away from SFL.

If it does become Bertha, it is only about six years away from a possible Texas landfall.

[MiamiensisWx]

It is possible that the path depicted in the TCFA suggests it will remain south of the Cape Verde islands. In that case, the advisory may be a full package at 2 p.m. EDT, but I'm starting to harbor doubts. This may have easily been a glitch or error.

Amend: FALSE ALARM; IT'S STILL 92L

[Thunder44]

It says 92L.Invest again on NRL.

[wyq614]

I don't know if it is really upgraded, and the title of the 92L thread in Chinese typhoonbbs remains unchanged just like that of here. I'm going sleeping, now it's 00:54 in Beijing.

[KWT]

MiamiensisWx, if anything the path the models have been suggesting might take it ever so slightly south of west over the next 24hrs before the system starts to feel the weakness. The longer it gets steered by shallow steering currents the longer this WSW motion will likely be.

Aric I can't see your image.

Edit---Ah back to 92L then, that makes more sense I suppose given its current structural organisation!

[wxman57]

Back to Invest 92L on Monterey!! Hurray!!!!

[wyq614]

NRL makes it back to 92L.

[Chacor]

Aric I can't see your image.

That would be because the 02L folder is gone and 92L is back.

[KWT]

Yep that explains it Chacor. anyway at least we do have a TCFA for this system so it does still need to be watched very closely to see if convection can increase over that LLC like it has been for the last 6hrs.

[wyq614]

So i'm going to bed with a little disappointment. Good night everyone. I hope a 02L will form when I wake up tomorrow morning, although I don't think it is very possible.

[Aric Dunn]

MiamiensisWx, if anything the path the models have been suggesting might take it ever so slightly south of west over the next 24hrs before the system starts to feel the weakness. The longer it gets steered by shallow steering currents the longer this WSW motion will likely be.

Aric I can't see your image.

Edit---Ah back to 92L then, that makes more sense I suppose given its current structural organisation!

thats because... the NRL site is not working right now... it will show up when the site is back .. up for either noname or 92l

[wxman57]

MiamiensisWx, if anything the path the models have been suggesting might take it ever so slightly south of west over the next 24hrs before the system starts to feel the weakness. The longer it gets steered by shallow steering currents the longer this WSW motion will likely be.

Aric I can't see your image.

Edit---Ah back to 92L then, that makes more sense I suppose given its current structural organisation!

nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc08/ATL/02L.NONAME/vis/modis...

thats because... the NRL site is not working right now... it will show up when the site is back .. up for either noname or 92l

It's working, you have the wrong URL now. When they changed it back to 92L the path to the image changed from "02L.NONAME".