TC Bertha

[jhamps10]

Welcome to another hurricane season... I have just spent the last hour reading the last days worth of posts and am happy to see this board as lively as ever. Looks like we have quite the anomaly on our hands. Too soon to make any predictions (since I usually make "homer" predictions for the Houston area anyway), but this does look to be an interesting week with the tropics.

Can anyone tell me how rare this strong of a wave is coming off the coast in July?

it's rarer than the Cubs Winning the World series.

[RL3AO]

Can anyone tell me how rare this strong of a wave is coming off the coast in July?

The strong wave itself is not actually that rare. What is rare is that the conditions are actually very favorable for development. Normally strong shear, cool SSTs and a lot of dust kills any wave that attempts to develop in June and July.

[NDG]

Can anyone tell me how rare this strong of a wave is coming off the coast in July?

The strong wave itself is not actually that rare. What is rare is that the conditions are actually very favorable for development. Normally strong shear, cool SSTs and a lot of dust kills any wave that attempts to develop in June and July.

Which is why is so well organized tonight

[cycloneye]

A question to any pro met.Will that big area of convection just behind invest 92L may have some effects on it?

[littlevince]

This might be going down for the record books if it named in the next couple of days, for forming so far east so early in the season.

Some early cape verde storms:

July 5, 1996 Hurricane Bertha
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Bertha

June 23, 2000 Tropical Depression Two
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000_Atlan ... ession_Two

[brunota2003]

Anyone catch the beginning of the article on Bertha?

"On July 1, a tropical wave emerged off of the coast of Africa."

[hurricanetrack]

Nice! Right on cue, 12 years later and to the exact day. Gotta love how sometimes statistics work out and make coincidences seem less coincidental....

Anyhow, as people have been saying, it appears that a lot hinges on how fast this thing develops, if at all. Latest GFS still has it yanked out to sea. I remember when Frances was looking like it could do that after coming off of Africa. Lots of people here were writing it off. Then, everything changed. That's what makes tropical cyclones so interesting, they are never easy.

[Sanibel]

This right out of the gates spin is unusual. Climatology would dictate dissipation, but since this is unusual who can really say for sure. I'm still sticking with dissipation since we've already seen an early pattern for spinning waves but all of them have faded.

Geesh, what is going to happen in August if we have this happening now?

[brunota2003]

Hopefully a lot of fish storms?

Go figure, I leave for Basic at the end of July...

[NDG]

Nice convection near its cyclonic center.

[Jason_B]

I'm still sticking with dissipation since we've already seen an early pattern for spinning waves but all of them have faded.

I don't know, the previous waves didn't have nearly as much outflow and persistent convection as this one. It could dissipate later on down the road like the rest of them but I think it has a good opportunity to become something beforehand.

[SouthFloridawx]

I don't know if anyone noticed the convection occurring in Africa right behind 92L. To the poster above me saying about the poofing, I would say that it is unlikely at this point to see that happen. Any comments on that?

IR 1 KM Fast animation from NRL site:
http://tinyurl.com/5on87v

[littlevince]

Nice! Right on cue, 12 years later and to the exact day. Gotta love how sometimes statistics work out and make coincidences seem less coincidental....

Just for fun, an IR loop of Bertha in 1996:
http://i217.photobucket.com/albums/cc44 ... nim-39.gif (Big file: 3 Mb.)

[Eyewall]

The cv season is under way and this is not a good sing for August and September or the rest of this month and it will only go down hill from here on out. We might all want to start getting the vacation plans ready.It is a good thing my family has 100 acres of land in Durant Mississippi.

[RattleMan]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 020553 CCA
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2008

...CORRECTED FOR DAY OF THE WEEK...

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
EXTREME EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 330 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAL IN
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
AND THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT
ABOUT 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[RL3AO]

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

All I will say is this looks very very good. In fact I would not be suprized if this did become a depression or even a tropical storm soon. Reminds me of Isabel a little, at least some of the sat pics I've looked at as it was west of the Cape verdes, but anyways it is a different part of the year. So that is impossible! Frances was a good amount larger; maybe Ivan to with the chain saw "clouds" that have formed with this.

Yes I'm playing around, but this doe's look good.

[weatherSnoop]

A question to any pro met.Will that big area of convection just behind invest 92L may have some effects on it?

Miami...anyone else. I also am interested in the possible affect.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

A question to any pro met.Will that big area of convection just behind invest 92L may have some effects on it?

Miami...anyone else. I also am interested in the possible affect.

That will likely keep the SAL at bay for 92L. So don't expect development in the short term.

[Category 5]

All I will say is this looks very very good. In fact I would not be suprized if this did become a depression or even a tropical storm soon. Reminds me of Isabel a little, at least some of the sat pics I've looked at as it was west of the Cape verdes, but anyways it is a different part of the year. So that is impossible! Frances was a good amount larger; maybe Ivan to with the chain saw "clouds" that have formed with this.

Yes I'm playing around, but this doe's look good.

Considering the names listed thats a big statement.