Waiting game

Rainband · #1 Postby **Rainband** » Wed Jul 09, 2003 2:06 pm

I just think if she survives this hostile enviornment..she may have a chance.. I hear if and it's a big if she survives and moves into the GOM conditions are ripe for intensification..just some food for thought :wink:

She has proved us wrong before!!! :o

southerngale · #2 Postby **southerngale** » Wed Jul 09, 2003 2:10 pm

Yep...she developed where nobody thought she would....she strengthened where nobody thought she would....I don't think she's done yet. JMO

Rainband · #3 Postby **Rainband** » Wed Jul 09, 2003 2:12 pm

I do think this is a TX storm!!! :o

#4 Postby **bfez1** » Wed Jul 09, 2003 2:19 pm

"It ain't over till it's over". We all just have to sit tight and wait and see. Now go read a book or work in the garage---lol

#5 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jul 09, 2003 2:28 pm

She has been a very tough fighter under very hostil enviroments first she made it thru that caribbean graveyard north of southamerica and now she is figthing against and ULL and the shear and so far she has held well under those circunstances.When the 5 Pm advisory comes out she will continue to be a tropical storm as the LLC has now gone in last frames under that red convection so as rainband very well points out on the title of his thread it is a waiting game.

Rainband · #6 Postby **Rainband** » Wed Jul 09, 2003 2:30 pm

cycloneye wrote:She has been a very tough fighter under very hostil enviroments first she made it thru that caribbean graveyard north of southamerica and now she is figthing against and ULL and the shear and so far she has held well under those circunstances.When the 5 Pm advisory comes out she will continue to be a tropical storm as the LLC has now gone in last frames under that red convection so as rainband very well points out on the title of his thread it is a waiting game.

I seems to be holding it's own and maybe even could strngthen..the last few sats are looking better..This is one wild rollercoaster ride!!! :roll:

BTW cycloneye go to Gopbi and answer that guys question about core temp!! Thanks :wink:

#7 Postby **bfez1** » Wed Jul 09, 2003 2:32 pm

Our local met just put this statement out on our local weather board:

Well, after looking pretty good on the IR channel last night, there was obviously some weakening this morning due to SW shear from the upper low ahead of her. As I look at the visible pics this afternoon, I am seeing more convection trying to fire northeast of the weak low-level circulation which seems to be still exposed to the SW of the deep convection, so she’s probably not dead just yet. Actually that circulation is becoming more difficult to find. We’ll see if reconnaissance can find any circulation left when they fly in again. I wouldn’t be surprised if they didn’t.

Anyway, SW shear is still very evident looking at the water vapor images. NHC was forecasting that upper low to weaken a bit, as were the global models, thus keeping the shear down as she caught up to the upper low. But the global models always seem to weaken upper lows too fast in the tropics – a known bias. This just goes to prove once again that intensity forecasts are very tough. Without a doubt this system is becoming shallower due to the exposure of the center for now. There is a possibility she could be steered more westerly now and not even make it into the Gulf, getting ripped apart over land, but that remains to be seen.

Still something we need to watch carefully because if she does make it into the Gulf, conditions will be much more favorable for development with high pressure building aloft.

John Gumm
Meteorologist
WWL-TV
1024 North Rampart Street
New Orleans, LA 70116

Guest · #8 Postby **Guest** » Wed Jul 09, 2003 2:34 pm

God Bless you Rainband !!! OtherHD is gonna love you for being his biggest wishcaster for it coming to Texas. :-)

Rainband · #9 Postby **Rainband** » Wed Jul 09, 2003 2:41 pm

ticka1 wrote:God Bless you Rainband !!! OtherHD is gonna love you for being his biggest wishcaster for it coming to Texas.

I just watch model trends..The first set I ignore the second..I take into consideration and the third..I start to look..models have continued to trend west..The only way this would move more north or east would be if the high eroded..while I think it is starting to..it's not gonna do it in enough time.. and the trof won't have much pull either..the only other thing is if it goes into the GOM and sits around..weak steering currents could make it interesting..but I believe it will go into the GOM and contiue to move.... So west to texas..for the time being is my guess :wink:

Also by it not being as vertically stacked at the moment the high wouldn't affect it much anyway..I think..I am still learning LOL :lol:

Colin · #10 Postby **Colin** » Wed Jul 09, 2003 2:56 pm

This is how Tropical Storms can be...one wild Roller Coaster ride, and until she passes through these hostile conditions, it's going to be this way...looks good, looks bad, looks real good, looks like it's on death's doorstep... etc, etc, etc...

But if it does pass through these hostile conditions, I think it has a very good chance of strengthening into a hurricane.

#11 Postby **Air Force Met** » Wed Jul 09, 2003 3:45 pm

Agree Colin. One thing I noticed on the ETA and GFS runs was a small little high developing over the system. Looking at the cloud motions...it looks as if this is happening. Now the back-breaker is her forward speed.

Colin · #12 Postby **Colin** » Wed Jul 09, 2003 4:24 pm

What does that mean if a HP system is developing over the system?

Rainband · #13 Postby **Rainband** » Wed Jul 09, 2003 4:25 pm

Colin wrote:What does that mean if a HP system is developing over the system?

High pressure aloft aids to develop a system :wink:

ColdFront77 · #14 Postby **ColdFront77** » Wed Jul 09, 2003 4:59 pm

Three things...

1.) Tropical Storm Claudette should slow down some in the next 6 to 18 hours. Tropical systems, as most of you know, rarely move this fast below 20ºN... this decrease in forward will also be indicative of a turn to the west-northwest.

2.) There are more forecast models beyond the first, second and third ones.

3.) Upper level high pressure systems over tropical surface lows act as outflow for a tropical system, the result is favorable for tropical development.

PTrackerLA · #15 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Wed Jul 09, 2003 5:04 pm

Lili fought just as hard as Claudette is now and we all know what happened after that. I don't think this one will just "go away".

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