TC Bertha

[KWT]

Shouldn't that normally happen though wxman57, the wave hits the water and the convection in the short term weakens whilst overland the convection increases?

Agree with the idea that it would very likely be a fish, though Bermuda could be at risk if it takes a track close to the ECM.

[brunota2003]

Looking at that loop (last post on the previous page) seems like convection is attempting to flare up around the circulation over water.

[HURAKAN]

Even Mayfield went back to the NHC to talk about 92L.

j/k of course!

[wxman57]

Shouldn't that normally happen though wxman57, the wave hits the water and the convection in the short term weakens whilst overland the convection increases?

Agree with the idea that it would very likely be a fish, though Bermuda could be at risk if it takes a track close to the ECM.

Right, most waves will have a hard time initially after moving out over the water. What we need to watch for is if it can develop some significant convection near that weak LLC and if that convection can persist at least 24 hours.

By the way, here's an excellent paper on African Easterly Waves and development potential. I was reading through it yesterday. It deals with the transition of AEWs from over land to over water. Kind of long at 240 pages, though. But lots of good info.

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/~lavilesbramer/Aviles(2004)thesis.pdf

[KWT]

Very interesting link very long though as you say!
As you say that next 24hrs is key as to whether convection will reform, esp during the D-max when it occurs and if we do see some good convection form then that at least raises the chances a little for development at least in the short term.

[Aric Dunn]

are we having fun yet?

[StormTracker]

Here is a more simplified breakdown of the atmosphere(at the moment)!!!

No pun intended, but, "the sky is the limit"!!!

[KWT]

Looks like the few waves before this one has taken the main SAL blow opening the way for this wave a little from the looks of things.

[Aric Dunn]

here is a good loop not sure if everyone knows the NRL site loops..

there is a small shift in the image.. but overall its really good considering there is really no closeup out there except this

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... PE=Animate

[Aric Dunn]

ITs looking good i might add..

[cycloneye]

The amount of sal in the Tropical Atlantic is much less than in the past few weeks.

[Eyewall]

code orange now

[cycloneye]

498
ABNT20 KNHC 012344
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2008

...CORRECTED TIME OF PRODUCT...

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN ABOUT 150 MILES WEST OF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA. THIS SYSTEM
IS ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND A
WEAK SURFACE LOW. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 TO
20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[CrazyC83]

I still don't see it getting past good ol' Sally...

[deltadog03]

still don't see this developing that quickly

[MGC]

I doubt 92L developes in the short term. It is just too soon for it to happen where it is. Maybe once it passes 30 degrees it will have a better chance. It is a pretty impressive wave for this time of the season though. If 92L does develope in the next day or so (which I doubt) it will be a long CV season for sure.....MGC

[cycloneye]

This is the 23:45 UTC pic.Convection increasing again.

[HURAKAN]

Just 4 Fun.

[KWT]

To be honest its got a better chance where it is right now MGC of developing as SST's here are a good deal above normal and probably closer to early August levels, further west they are cooler and much closer to normal.

[Derek Ortt]

possible flooding threat for the CV Islands