Tropical Depression Boris in EPAC

[HURAKAN]

Starting to question the 50 mph intensity.

[cycloneye]

Yes very interesting development.

[HURAKAN]

[KWT]

Oh its going to surely be upped in terms of strength again, I reckon will probably up it to 50kts, maybe even 55kts if Sat,estimates go up.

Does look like a prototype eye and eyewall trying to develop, still wide open on the northern side. GFDL did forecast short term strengthening upto 60kts before ventually weakening, may we be seeing that now?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

55 knots is what I'm thinking. Partly "closed" eye with nice outflow, if current trends can keep up. This system could become a 60 knot system with in the next 6-8 hours...We will see.

[HURAKAN]

278
WTPZ22 KNHC 292042
TCMEP2
TROPICAL STORM BORIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022008
2100 UTC SUN JUN 29 2008

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 117.3W AT 29/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 100SE 100SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 117.3W AT 29/2100Z
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 116.7W

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 15.0N 118.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 75SE 75SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 15.0N 120.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 75SE 75SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 15.0N 121.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 75SE 75SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 15.0N 122.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 15.0N 124.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 15.0N 126.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 15.0N 128.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 117.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[HURAKAN]

835
WTPZ32 KNHC 292043
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BORIS ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022008
200 PM PDT SUN JUN 29 2008

...BORIS HAS NOT WEAKENED YET...

AT 200 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BORIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.3 WEST OR ABOUT 735
MILES...1180 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

BORIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST TODAY BUT A GRADUAL
WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN ON MONDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 200 PM PDT POSITION...14.9 N...117.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[HURAKAN]

456
WTPZ42 KNHC 292044
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022008
200 PM PDT SUN JUN 29 2008

THE CENTER IS A LITTLE MORE TUCKED IN THE CONVECTION BUT THE OVERALL
CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY. DVORAK T-NUMBERS
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS. BORIS IS
HEADING TOWARD COOLER WATERS AND INTO MORE STABLE AIR.
THEREFORE...A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN AND THIS FORECAST
BASICALLY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.

BORIS HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS. SOME
GLOBAL MODELS ARE CHANGING THEIR TUNE AND ARE NOW KEEPING BORIS
SEPARATED FROM THE DEVELOPING DISTURBANCE TO THE EAST.
CONSEQUENTLY...THESE MODELS KEEP BORIS MOVING WESTWARD. NOW ONLY
THE GFS AND THE GFDL INSIST ON MERGING BORIS WITH THE NEW
DISTURBANCE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO CALL FOR A SLOW
WESTWARD MOTION UNTIL BORIS BECOMES A REMNANT LOW IN 3 OR 4 DAYS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/2100Z 14.9N 117.3W 45 KT
12HR VT 30/0600Z 15.0N 118.3W 45 KT
24HR VT 30/1800Z 15.0N 120.0W 40 KT
36HR VT 01/0600Z 15.0N 121.5W 35 KT
48HR VT 01/1800Z 15.0N 122.5W 30 KT
72HR VT 02/1800Z 15.0N 124.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 03/1800Z 15.0N 126.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 04/1800Z 15.0N 128.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[HURAKAN]

You're looking at the best 50 mph storm in history!!!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It looks to be almost a closed eye. I say it is a 55 knot tropical storm, and maybe soon to be 60 knots. But we will have to wait intill another forecaster gets into the forecast chair tonight for any changes!!!

[KWT]

I think anyone would have to be very stubborn not to at least slightly raise the winds on the next forecast cycle because it looks stronger then 45kts.

I suspect that package was made before the eye opped into vis.imagery over the past hour or so.

[cycloneye]

I suspect that package was made before the eye opped into vis.imagery over the past hour or so.

You may be right about that.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Tropical storm Boris
2pm pst
6-29-2008


Winds 70 mph
Pressure 993 millibars
Movement 8 knots west at 275 degree's
Location 14.7/117.3


Boris strengthens to near hurricane strength

Boris has made a super come back over the last few hours, with 85h data showing a nearly fully closed eye, with just a opening in the northern quad. Also visible has shown a complete eye the last few frames, so it is likley that the system is fairly close to becoming a hurricane. Also very well defined bands have formed, showing that the system is in a very favorable strengthing environment as of this moment. Our t number is now 3.8t. While Cimss advance t number is 3.7t/59 knots. We are currently going with 60 knots.


As Christina has moved out of the way, it has now moved just far enough to the west, that the shear is now focused just west of Boris. This is noted on the shear maps. So this is why it has became slightly more favorable for tropical cyclone development. The system is under a strong anticyclone just to the north of the system. This high pressure area should keep it on a westward track through out the next 24-36 hours. Cooler water is expected to be reached by 30-36 hours; we are currently forecasting Boris to become a 70 knot hurricane at 12-24 hours. After 12-18 hours we expect that the system "could" catch back up with the shear jet from Christina, in which time we expect that to limit development, on the other hand a distrabance to the east should also help to make the environment less favorable after 24-30 hours.


Forecast
0 60 knots 14.7/117.3
6 65 knots 14.8/117.9
12 70 knots 14.9/118.6
24 60 knots 14.8/120.8
36 50 knots 15.2/124.5


Just what I think, nothing more or less!!!

[HURAKAN]

By the time the next advisory is available the feature may have weakened or disappared.

[HURAKAN]

This was a few hours ago but looks quite interesting.

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 29 JUN 2008 Time : 203000 UTC
Lat : 14:54:43 N Lon : 117:12:33 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.8 / 992.6mb/ 61.0kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.8 4.0 4.0

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.8mb

Center Temp : -62.8C Cloud Region Temp : -68.2C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************

[KWT]

Who knows whether that feature will still be present we shall have to wait and see however even if its not the overall structure looks far better then it did even 12hrs ago the center finally tucked into the deep convection for the first time in probably 48hrs and can't be denied there is some strengthening occuring.

I'd guess the NHC would go upto 55kts nwxt forecast.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

[RattleMan]

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 292337
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BORIS SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022008
500 PM PDT SUN JUN 29 2008

...BORIS JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH...

AT 500 PM PDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BORIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.8 WEST OR ABOUT 760
MILES...1225 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

BORIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ALTHOUGH BORIS HAS STRENGTHENED UNEXPECTEDLY THIS
AFTERNOON...A WEAKENING TREND IS LIKELY TO BEGIN TOMORROW.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM PDT POSITION...14.8 N...117.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN




000
WTPZ42 KNHC 292338
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM BORIS SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022008
500 PM PDT SUN JUN 29 2008

THE PURPOSE OF THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS TO INCREASE THE INITIAL AND
FORECAST INTENSITIES OF BORIS. OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...A
RAGGED EYE HAS BEEN APPARENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. IN
ADDITION...A RECENT MICROWAVE PASS INDICATES THAT THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER OF BORIS IS REASONABLY CO-LOCATED WITH THE VISIBLE EYE
FEATURE. THE CIMSS ADT ESTIMATES THE INTENSITY OF THE CYCLONE TO
BE JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH. AS A RESULT...THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60 KT.

WHILE BORIS COULD REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH TONIGHT...THE GENERAL
SLOW WEAKENING SCENARIO FROM PREVIOUS ADVISORIES IS RETAINED. THE
TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED ONLY SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/0000Z 14.8N 117.8W 60 KT
12HR VT 30/0600Z 14.7N 118.5W 60 KT
24HR VT 30/1800Z 14.6N 120.0W 50 KT
36HR VT 01/0600Z 14.5N 121.5W 40 KT
48HR VT 01/1800Z 14.5N 122.5W 35 KT
72HR VT 02/1800Z 14.5N 124.5W 30 KT
96HR VT 03/1800Z 14.5N 126.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 04/1800Z 14.5N 128.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN