Looks like the LLC is becoming exposed

[Air Force Met]

JUst looked at the shortwave IR and it appears the LLC is moving out from under the convection. This is what I was talking about last night in the chat room...if it doesn't slow down...it will run under the upper level low and end up in Belize.

[Pebbles]

I was hoping someone would throw their take on these more recent developments soon. I was looking at the 5am discussion from NHC and thinking..wow kinda unusual to have such a high wind gust with the type of pressure and was wondering if maybe the met guys were playing conservative because of that. So over to the IR I look and even a rookie like me could see that she's not a happy storm right now LOL

Just when you start to think your getting a tenative hold on the whole tropics scene..a storm like this comes along and makes you realize just what a newbie you are LOL *winks*

Wish I hadn't missed that chat last night...mighta learned more But then again..that's why I'm here!

[Air Force Met]

I've been getting a little kick out of the NHC wording. They talk about her slowing down in 48 hours. Heck...if she doesn't slow down before then...she will be in the pacific! 48 hours at 20 kts is about 16 degrees of longitude. That puts her at 91W...which is well inland into Mexico.

Simply put...she is outrunning her convection. This means two things:
1) She will be steered by the low level flow into Mexico as a weak tropical system.
2) She will get sheared by the TUTT.

She has about 12 hours to slow down. Looking at the sterring flow now...she won't do it until she is near the coast of Honduras.

[Guest]

Bye Bye Claudette

[wrkh99]

Not so fast ticka ! This one is not dead yet



http://groups.yahoo.com/group/Hurricanes2001/

[Lindaloo]

That ULL situated near the tip of Cuba is supposed to move off to the west sometime today, which may cause Claudette to slow down and strengthen.

[Air Force Met]

The upper low will have no bearing on her speed...especially if it moves out of the way. She has moved at a very steady 21.5-22 kts for the last 12-18 hours. She has slowed only 3 kts in the last 24 hours. The TUTT is moving west at about 5-10 kts slower. Claudette must slow down in the next day or it is into Belize. The undercutting of shear began last night. You could see the cloud pattern elongating and the TSTMS on the SW side got thinner. It is hard to keep a LLC intact when it is moving so fast. It is very rare...especially when there is a TUTT to the west and the system is running up underneath it. What happens is the storm weakens...which means it is steered by low level flow...which is still strong to the west for the next 36 hours. A stronger storm would be steered more NW by the TUTT...but the fast forward motion is going to prevent that. She must slow down by tomorrow morning or she is done. And by slow down...I mean below 15 kts. It has to get the upper high back on top of it and that won't happen as long as it is moving faster than or the same speed as the TUTT.