WPAC: Ex-TY Fengshen 0806 (07W) 1,300 dead

[senorpepr]

01Z observations...


Ramblon 98536 (AAXX 21011 98536 41465 80608 10252 20234 49984 5//// 76066 8482/ 333 56199 84815 88457;)
21/01Z
Visbility is 15km with intermittent light rain
Winds are 060° at 16KT
Temperature is 25.2°C
Dewpoint is 23.4°C
Pressure is 998.4 hPa
Total precipitation over the past 24 hours is 52mm or 2.05" (reported at 00Z)
Skies are 4/8 cumulus and stratocumulus at 1500ft (clouds drifting northeast), 8/8 altostratus at 7000ft

San Jose 98531 (AAXX 21011 98531 41462 83206 10277 20246 40004 5//// 71544 8452/ 333 56999 69907 84618 88457;)
21/01Z
Visbility is 12km with nearby rain
Winds are 320° at 12KT
Temperature is 27.7°C
Dewpoint is 24.6°C
Pressure is 1000.4 hPa
Total precipitation over the past 6 hours is 5mm or 0.20" (reported at 00Z)
Skies are 4/8 stratocumulus at 1800ft, 8/8 altostratus at 7000ft

Iloilo 98637 (AAXX 21011 98637 41420 81608 10248 20220 40011 5//// 76066 8397/ 333 56999 83912 88358;)
21/01Z
Visbility is 2km with intermittent light rain
Winds are 160° at 16KT
Temperature is 24.8°C
Dewpoint is 22.0°C
Pressure is 1001.1 hPa
Total precipitation over the past 24 hours is 354mm or 13.94" (reported at 00Z)
Skies are 3/8 cumulonimbus at 1200ft, 8/8 altocumulus at 8000ft

Roxas 98538 (AAXX 21011 98538 41410 81820 20224 4999/ 5//// 76566 84221 333 56559 84811 88456;)
21/01Z
Visbility is 1km with heavy rain
Winds are 180° at 39KT
Temperature is 24.0°C (reported at 00Z)
Dewpoint is 22.4°C
Pressure is 999 hPa
Total precipitation over the past 24 hours is 300mm or 11.81" (reported at 00Z)
Skies are 4/8 cumulus at 1100ft (clouds drifting southwest), 8/8 altostratus at 6000ft



Note that Iloilo and Roxas are along the SW side of the eye, in the heavy rain bands. Roxas was closer to the eyewall.

[senorpepr]

Hopefully later tonight I can sit down and decode some ob trends for Iloilo and Roxas...

[HURAKAN]

In-Accuweather!

[HURAKAN]

Very impressive. Latest loop show it moving west!

[senorpepr]

That MTSAT image you posted places the eye about 35mi NE of Roxas.

[HURAKAN]

Eye becomes more clear.

[cycloneye]

Vietnam bound instead of Hong Kong?

[HURAKAN]

[cycloneye]

WTPN31 PGTW 210300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 07W (FENGSHEN) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
210000Z --- NEAR 11.8N 122.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.8N 122.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- NEAR 12.6N 120.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- NEAR 13.6N 119.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- NEAR 14.6N 118.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- NEAR 15.8N 116.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- NEAR 18.4N 115.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- NEAR 21.1N 115.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- NEAR 24.0N 114.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
210300Z POSITION NEAR 12.0N 121.9E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 210900Z, 211500Z, 212100Z AND 220300Z.//

[Derek Ortt]

I'd like to know how they derived only 95KT from that. Especially with JMA having a 10 minute wind of 90KT, which equals about 105-110KT via the conversion

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I'd like to know how they derived only 95KT from that. Especially with JMA having a 10 minute wind of 90KT, which equals about 105-110KT via the conversion

I agree. I believes it borderline cat3/4 right now. I would hate to be those cities that this is coming close to.

[Sanibel]

Incredible the way this muscled through the midst of the Phillipines and kept its form while the eye threaded the channel.

[HURAKAN]

21/0230 UTC 11.9N 122.4E T6.0/6.0 FENGSHEN -- West Pacific Ocean

[HURAKAN]

Thousands evacuated as typhoon strikes Philippines
30 minutes ago

MANILA (AFP) — Typhoon Fengshen dumped heavy rains across the eastern and central Philippines Saturday, grounding domestic flights and inter-island ferry services, officials said.

The storm forced over 200,000 people to seek temporary shelters in the eastern Bicol region, the civil defence office said, but there were no immediate reports of casualties.

The typhoon also uprooted small trees and blew away tin roofs in the central city of Roxas, where Fengshen was hovering early Saturday with maximum sustained winds of 140 kilometres (87 miles) an hour.

Fengshen was forecast to dump heavy rains in large parts of the central Visayas region and parts of the main island of Luzon, the weather bureau said.

Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes were warned against possible flash floods and landslide, while those in coastal areas were told to watch out for big waves.

Officials said domestic flights going to the central Philippines have been suspended, while inter-island ferry services were also halted.

"There have been flights cancelled," said Office of Civil Defense deputy head Anthony Golez, advising residents to stay indoors.

"If there are untoward incidents, the armed forces are prepared to deploy," he said.

He said there have been no reports of any casualties, but said up to 200,000 people were evacuated to temporary shelters in the Bicol region as a precaution.

Government agencies were also instructed to stockpile on relief goods, while state-run hospitals were placed on alert.

Coast guard spokesman Lieutenant Commander Armand Balilo said 21 inter-island ferries were barred from leaving port in the central city of Cebu while one vessel ran aground in the central island of Samar.

[JonathanBelles]

I think they may want to prepare for evacuations in HK/Macau/China as well.

[HURAKAN]

Close to Cat 4 if not already there.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Wow, what a storm! Looks like the popular tourist island of Boracay is about to get hammered. I was there in January and it's a stunning region, I really hope the damage from this storm is minimal but looking at its excellent structure that's wishful thinking.

Fengshen definitely looks like a threat to China now.

[senorpepr]

Here's 24-hr rainfall totals (in inches) from 19/0000Z to 20/0000Z:




Here's 24-hr rainfall totals (in inches) from 20/0000Z to 21/0000Z:




Those two charts indicate a 48-hour total of...
Roxas 14.78
Iloilo 14.51
Guiuan 8.64
Tacloban 8.31
Borongan 5.95
Catbalogan 3.99
Massin 3.85
Catarman 3.83
Dumaguete 3.26
Romblon 2.78
Tagbilaran 2.68
Butuan 1.59

[JonathanBelles]

Amazing image right there. With all that beauty, its hard to comprehend the destruction going on underneath it.

[senorpepr]

04Z observations: