06z NAM and 06 GFS shows rain event for S FL Mon nite/Tues

[boca]

Yes the NAM,but I hope it materializes since scattered showers aren't doing much to alleviate the drought.I think the rain event is from the tropical wave by Puerto Rico moving it WNW towards the sunshine state.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Vortex]

Boca,

I agree with you and I've been watching the various guidance the last few days continue to increasingly favor a potential heavy rain event for southern florida and the keys mon night/tue.

The disturbed weather over the dominican republic and vicinity will continue west bound. That coupled with the winds veering more southerly across the area will bring very deep moisture laiden air from the carribean across south florida by monday afternoon. Early analysis appears likely of a general 3-5" rain event with localized areas receing up to 6" More later..

[Vortex]

18Z Nam is also suggesting an area of low pressure will form either at the surface or mid levels across the western carribean in about 2 days. This would serve as a rain pump bringing very heavy rains across southern florida from the south as the flow will be out of the sw.

[KWT]

Yeah I believe the NAM was developing a weak closed low in the north Caribbean close to Cuba on this mornings run.

[srainhoutx]

Yeah I believe the NAM was developing a weak closed low in the north Caribbean close to Cuba on this mornings run.

Actually this has been "hinted" from NAM for 24 to 48 hours and to a degree by the GFS as well. Hope you get some rain for Lake O.

[boca]

This will be in our near future Mon/Tues time frame.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 11&loop=no

[srainhoutx]

Snipet from EYW this afternoon...


FXUS62 KKEY 141821
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
225 PM EDT SAT JUN 14 2008

.DISCUSSION...

A TROPICAL WAVE
IS LOCATED ALONG 68W-69W SOUTH OF 19N. THIS TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING
TO THE WEST AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. AT THIS SPEED OF MOVEMENT...THE
TROPICAL WAVE SHOULD BE PASSING SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA KEYS MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THERE MAY BE SUBTLE LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW NORTH
OF THE WAVE AXIS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. IF NOT...AT THE VERY
LEAST...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION...DRAWING
ABUNDANT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
THEREFORE...POPS WILL BE INCREASED BY 10 PERCENT FOR THE MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT PORTION OF THE ZONE FORECASTS FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS

[Recurve]

Nice convection tonight over Puerto Rico. Looks to me like high westerlies shearing the tops.

Earlier:


Latest:

[boca]

Just updated the thread for the 00z run.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[boca]

I don't think the NAM is taking into count the ULL in the Bahamas shearing the tops off the tropical wave to the NE. This area could be void of precipatation by tomorrow if the shear doesn't lessen up.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

The wave is running into 40knot shear which will rip this wave up too,just like the one we saw a couple of days ago over Barbados.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8shrZ.html

[boca]

I'm having doubts that this might not happen from this wave,but our rain will come from afternoon thunderstorms from the stalled front over South Georgia by Mon/Tues.Upper level winds will push the storms to the east coast.

[Sanibel]

Mild persistence in high shear area. Nothing worth shouting over, but noted.

[boca]

Sanibel the 18z NAM still has a pretty good rain event for the southern 1/3 of Florida. Its been showing this for 4 days now. Lets see what happens when the winds turn southerly and brings up the moisture from the wave located at 78w as of 8:05pm tropical discussion.

[Patrick99]

I hope so. This rainy season has started off as a total bust down here in S. Dade.

[boca]

Here's the 00zNAM and is still showing a good soaking for us here.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[boca]

06 NAM and GFS now show good rain event for Florida.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Sanibel]

Poof. Conditions negative.

[jlauderdal]

Poof. Conditions negative.

conditions seem pretty good considering its pouring this afternoon

[Sanibel]

Still weak persistence like the other wave that looked like it was spinning in the BOC.

That rain today was from a front over northern Florida colliding with southwest winds. We had morning showers because of it instead of the afternoon rains that come on the fair weather trades.

[gatorcane]

Boca, Palm Beach County does not have a large drought AFAIK. We've been getting the typical scattered showers almost everyday as expected (with a string of a few days in early June with nothing).

this rain would be additionally welcomed though.