Latest track grafic of models are clustered into GOM

[cycloneye]

http://www.wright-weather.com/data/wxp/ ... tte-10.gif

But this is subject to changes of course as it is a consensus of the models so GOMERS from Brownsville to the Panhandle of Florida keep watching Claudette's track.

[bfez1]

Thanks for posting the track, Luis
I was anxious to see the graphics.

[Rainband]

I like them all but the bamm..the blue line!!! :o

[Lindaloo]

OH NO Johnathan!!! I was only joking in that other thread. :o

[southerngale]

Thanks...I was wanting to see the graphics as well.

[Rainband]

OH NO Johnathan!!! I was only joking in that other thread. :o

I know..we never get storms so I am not concerned

[wx247]

Interesting to say the least... I am not sure which one I prefer at the moment. Somewhere between the BAMM and the BAMD is my thinking.

[Steve]

Wright-weather is the best source for models. While their graphical maps aren't updated often enough, you can usually find the latest runs (ahead of everywhere else) on their site:

http://www.wright-weather.com/

This is the link to their main page.

http://www.wright-weather.com/gfdl.shtml

This is the link to their Hurricane Models.

http://www.wright-weather.com/data/wxp/gfdl/tracks/

[Rainband]

Thanks steve..whats your take on claudette???

[Steve]

>>Thanks steve..whats your take on claudette???

Ain't got one yet RB. I think the potential for Cat-2 or Cat-3 is there if the storm slows down around the Yucatan. My early gut was to go with climatology. Seriously, it was July, invest was at a very low lattitutde, and it was flying along. That looked like a Nic/Hon landfall of not-much followed by an EPAC storm. But now I'm not inclined to go with that scenario at all. None of the models (global or tropical) that I've looked at really want to slow the system down. And to be fair, none have really been that well initialized yet. However, as the data is pumped in with successive TPC information, a clearer picture should emerge. But then we'll have to ask how well they're going to handle the information since there isn't much of a July precedent to this storm (and that speaks to those models that carry some historical input).

So I think there are a range of options. Yucatan is probably first (after some Greater Antilles brushes - Jamaica, Caymans, Cuba). Then it could be anywhere from Central Mexico to SW FL. If I had to hone in, and I never do that from 5 days out, I'd have to go with Mexico being the most likely, followed by S Texas. If it's not those areas, anywhere else on the Gulf Coast (Corpus to Key West) could be threatened. It's just too early to tell.

And I like the ETA and ECMWF the best for systems in the Gulf. Both of them just blow it on by (but neither of the 12z runs had anything remotely at 1006mb, so I'm throwing their solutions out.

And you?

Steve

[Rainband]

>>Thanks steve..whats your take on claudette???

Ain't got one yet RB. I think the potential for Cat-2 or Cat-3 is there if the storm slows down around the Yucatan. My early gut was to go with climatology. Seriously, it was July, invest was at a very low lattitutde, and it was flying along. That looked like a Nic/Hon landfall of not-much followed by an EPAC storm. But now I'm not inclined to go with that scenario at all. None of the models (global or tropical) that I've looked at really want to slow the system down. And to be fair, none have really been that well initialized yet. However, as the data is pumped in with successive TPC information, a clearer picture should emerge. But then we'll have to ask how well they're going to handle the information since there isn't much of a July precedent to this storm (and that speaks to those models that carry some historical input).

So I think there are a range of options. Yucatan is probably first (after some Greater Antilles brushes - Jamaica, Caymans, Cuba). Then it could be anywhere from Central Mexico to SW FL. If I had to hone in, and I never do that from 5 days out, I'd have to go with Mexico being the most likely, followed by S Texas. If it's not those areas, anywhere else on the Gulf Coast (Corpus to Key West) could be threatened. It's just too early to tell.

And I like the ETA and ECMWF the best for systems in the Gulf. Both of them just blow it on by (but neither of the 12z runs had anything remotely at 1006mb, so I'm throwing their solutions out.

And you?

Steve

Being a novice..I look at climatology and such..My best guess would be TX..all the models but one favor a west track..The only thing that remotely concerns me is if it slows down then it could turn north with a weakness in the high forecast..Other than that it will be something for me to watch!!