June 4-7: Severe wx (Omaha tornado update)

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1235
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0510 PM CDT THU JUN 05 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB...WRN IA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 461...

VALID 052210Z - 052345Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 461 CONTINUES.

TORNADO AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3
HOURS AS CELLS INITIATE AND TRACK NEWD ACROSS ERN NEB AND WRN IA. A
REPLACEMENT TORNADO WATCH WILL BE NEEDED BY 00Z.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 988 MB LOW OVER CNTRL NEB WITH A WARM
FRONT EXTENDING ENEWD ACROSS NE NEB INTO NRN IA. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS SWD FROM THE LOW AND RUC OBJECTIVE DATA SUGGESTS THE WARM
SECTOR IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 2000 TO 2500
J/KG RANGE. CELLS SHOULD INITIATE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR AS THE
LEADING EDGE OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...CURRENTLY LOCATED IN ERN
NEB...MOVES EWD INTO WRN IA. THE OMAHA WSR-88D VWP SHOWS ABOUT 60 KT
OF VERTICAL SHEAR WITH 0-1 KM SR HELICITY JUST ABOVE 300 M2/S2. THIS
WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
STRONG TORNADOES AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS EARLY THIS
EVENING. IN ADDITION...THE STRONG FORCED ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO SUPPORT WELL-ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS
WITH WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. WITH 50 KT SLY FLOW LOCATED JUST ABOVE
THE SFC...WIND GUSTS OVER 70 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
CELLS.

..BROYLES.. 06/05/2008


ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...

40699460 40469600 40749662 41529723 42929736 43879649
43989363 43139299 42249345

[Bunkertor]

[Melissa]

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
453 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2008

KSC155-159-052245-
/O.CON.KICT.SV.W.0253.000000T0000Z-080605T2245Z/
RICE KS-RENO KS-
453 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN RENO
AND RICE COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM CDT...

AT 450 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS REPORTED CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE...AND DAMAGING WINDS OF
60 TO 75 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR PLEVNA...OR 20 MILES WEST
OF HUTCHINSON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 83 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE...
NEAR STERLING BY 500 PM CDT.
NEAR LITTLE RIVER BY 510 PM CDT.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

LAT...LON 3773 9847 3782 9849 3846 9845 3848 9793
3817 9792 3816 9791 3773 9807
TIME...MOT...LOC 2153Z 212DEG 72KT 3807 9823

$$

COX

Theres several others moving at over 70mph.

[KWT]

Wow moving over 83mph, thats racing along your going to have to break the speed limit quite well to keep up with that!

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1236
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0523 PM CDT THU JUN 05 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN OK...NWRN TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 465...

VALID 052223Z - 052330Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 465 CONTINUES.

OVERALL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN CONFINED TO THE NRN PORTION
OF WW 465 ACROSS SWRN OK...ALONG DRYLINE WHICH EXTENDED FROM WOODS
COUNTY IN NWRN OK S/SWWD TO AROUND 20 E MAF AT 22Z. SURFACE
TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS REMAIN LARGE /AROUND 30 TO 40 DEG
F/...IMMEDIATELY INVOF ONGOING TSTMS IN SWRN OK. THUS...SEVERE WIND
GUSTS/LARGE HAIL SHOULD REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS IN THE NEAR-TERM.
HOWEVER...SUBTLE BACKING OF SURFACE WINDS HAS BEEN NOTED IN
TIME-SERIES TRENDS IN THE PRE-DRYLINE AIR MASS...WHICH SHOULD AID IN
ADVECTION OF RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE S/SSE. GIVEN STRONG
LOW-LEVEL FLOW AS SAMPLED BY REGIONAL VAD/PROFILERS...ISOLATED
TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH DISCRETE STORMS ON THE
TAIL-END OF LARGER MCS CLUSTER.

FARTHER SW INTO NWRN TX...CU/TCU FIELD CONTINUES TO APPEAR AGITATED
ON VIS IMAGERY. WITH GREATEST LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WELL REMOVED FROM
THIS REGION AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS NEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL
PLAINS...IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER OR NOT SUSTAINED TSTM DEVELOPMENT
WILL OCCUR WITHIN THIS REGION.

..GRAMS.. 06/05/2008


ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...

35589949 35749889 35749850 35649748 34749772 33529888
33199939 32910014 33090065 33810032

[KWT]

TORNADO WARNING
NEC067-097-133-052315-
/O.NEW.KOAX.TO.W.0024.080605T2223Z-080605T2315Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
523 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN OMAHA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN GAGE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...
JOHNSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...
WESTERN PAWNEE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...

* UNTIL 615 PM CDT.

* AT 522 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THE MOST
DANGEROUS PART OF THE STORM WAS LOCATED 41 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
TECUMSEH...OR 31 MILES SOUTH OF BEATRICE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55
MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TECUMSEH...BARNESTON...BURCHARD...STEINAUER...STESTONAND
STERLING...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR A PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF A BASEMENT IS NOT
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. GO TO
AN INTERIOR ROOM OR HALLWAY. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR
BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT THURSDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHWESTERN IOWA AND EASTERN NEBRASKA.

LAT...LON 4000 9664 4051 9642 4039 9606 4034 9606
3999 9626 3999 9663
TIME...MOT...LOC 2223Z 208DEG 58KT 3986 9655

$$

GRIFFIS

[Category 5]

TORNADO WARNING
KSC117-052245-
/O.NEW.KTOP.TO.W.0011.080605T2205Z-080605T2245Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
505 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
MARSHALL COUNTY IN NORTHEAST KANSAS...

* UNTIL 545 PM CDT

* AT 504 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR
WATERVILLE...OR 13 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MARYSVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 59 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MARYSVILLE...
FRANKFORT...
OKETO...
BEATTIE...
AXTELL...
SUMMERFIELD...

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING TORNADOES. TAKE COVER IN A
BASEMENT OR STORM SHELTER NOW!

FOR YOUR SAFETY...GO TO A STORM SHELTER OR BASEMENT NOW! TORNADOES
MAY HAVE WINDS GREATER THAN 100 MPH. AVOID OVERPASSES AND WINDOWS...
AND COVER YOUR HEAD. (Did they really need to tell us that?)

LEAVE MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES...AND GO TO A BASEMENT OR STORM
SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST DITCH
OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD. AVOID OVERPASSES.

STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE LATEST
SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION.

LAT...LON 4000 9624 3985 9624 3956 9654 3956 9680
3982 9680 3999 9665
TIME...MOT...LOC 2205Z 227DEG 51KT 3970 9678

$$

CAVANAUGH

[CrazyC83]

KSC163-060130-

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
CIVIL EMERGENCY MESSAGE
NEBRASKA EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY HASTINGS NEBRASKA
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
519 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2008

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE
ROOKS COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY.

POWER LINES ARE DOWN ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE COUNTY AS A RESULT
OF STRONG WINDS. SOME OF THE LINES ARE HIGH VOLTAGE LINES. DO NOT
APPROACH OR DRIVE OVER ANY DOWNED POWER LINES.

$$

EDDY/JCB

[KWT]

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
531 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2008

SDC023-053-052241-
/O.EXP.KFSD.SV.W.0086.000000T0000Z-080605T2230Z/
GREGORY SD-CHARLES MIX SD-
531 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CHARLES MIX AND SOUTHEASTERN
GREGORY COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED...

THE STORM HAS EXITED THE WARNED AREA.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4337 9888 4320 9814 4287 9829 4289 9835
4292 9839 4293 9845 4299 9851 4299 9904
TIME...MOT...LOC 2159Z 199DEG 48KT 4311 9856

$$

BT

[Bunkertor]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1237
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0529 PM CDT THU JUN 05 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN SD...SW MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 463...

VALID 052229Z - 060000Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 463
CONTINUES.

THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS SERN SD OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. A FEW TORNADOES ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE
POSSIBLE. A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY ACROSS THE MCD AREA
TO REPLACE WW 463.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 988 MB LOW OVER CNTRL NEB WITH A MOIST
AXIS EXTENDING NNWWD ACROSS ERN NEB INTO FAR SERN SD. SFC DEWPOINTS
IN SERN SD HAVE INCREASED INTO THE LOWER 70S F AND RESULTANT MLCAPE
VALUES ARE NOW IN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE. THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF YANKTON SD SHOULD REMAIN INTENSE AS
DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL INCREASE AS A 40 TO 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET EXPANDS
NWD EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES. LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.

..BROYLES.. 06/05/2008


ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...ABR...

43319606 42969825 43449912 44309882 44739751 44569520
43729488

[Weatherfreak14]

heres a 3D look at the Marysville KS Storm Rotation. Very strong rotation with this storm.

[Weatherfreak14]

Radar is estimating winds around 105mph appraching White city, KS. Also a Tornado Warning Issued Just north of the City.

WFUS53 KTOP 052237
TORTOP
KSC061-127-149-161-052300-
/O.NEW.KTOP.TO.W.0012.080605T2237Z-080605T2300Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
537 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
GEARY COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...
NORTHWESTERN MORRIS COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTHWESTERN POTTAWATOMIE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST KANSAS...
RILEY COUNTY IN NORTHEAST KANSAS...

* UNTIL 600 PM CDT

* AT 531 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 7 MILES SOUTH OF
GEARY COUNTY STATE PARK...OR 16 MILES SOUTH OF JUNCTION CITY...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 57 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
JUNCTION CITY...
GRANDVIEW PLAZA...
OGDEN...
TUTTLE CREEK STATE PARK...
WAMEGO...
ST. GEORGE...
MANHATTAN...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 296 AND 318.

FOR YOUR SAFETY...GO TO A STORM SHELTER OR BASEMENT NOW! TORNADOES
MAY HAVE WINDS GREATER THAN 100 MPH. AVOID OVERPASSES AND WINDOWS...
AND COVER YOUR HEAD.

STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE LATEST
SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION.

LAT...LON 3920 9629 3916 9635 3917 9636 3916 9639
3912 9639 3875 9682 3881 9689 3886 9689
3887 9692 3890 9692 3936 9661
TIME...MOT...LOC 2237Z 212DEG 49KT 3887 9679

$$

KONOP/POAGE

[Bunkertor]

Tornado thread for Omaha has slightly diminished. But the sounding does not mean all clear.

[CrazyC83]

The cap up there is gone, but the CAPE values have dropped.

[HarlequinBoy]

SPC disagrees with you btangy

Not really, his assessment is mostly in line with the SPC forecast.

[CrazyC83]

SEL7

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 467
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
550 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

MUCH OF WESTERN AND PART OF CENTRAL IOWA
SMALL PART OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
PARTS OF SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
MUCH OF EASTERN NEBRASKA
PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY MORNING FROM 550 PM
UNTIL 100 AM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 90 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 150 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES SOUTH OF ONEILL
NEBRASKA TO 30 MILES EAST OF FORT DODGE IOWA. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 461...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 463. WATCH
NUMBER 461 463 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER 550 PM CDT.
CONTINUE...WW 462...WW 464...WW 465...WW 466...

DISCUSSION...WARM FRONT MOVING NWD INTO SERN SD AND WRN MN WITH A
VERY UNSTABLE AND HIGHLY SHEARED WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WRN PORTION OF WATCH. WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
VIGOROUS S/WV TROUGH AND 80-100KT MID LEVEL WIND
MAX...SUPERCELLS/BOW ECHOES WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE VERY
RAPIDLY NEWD THRU THE WATCH THIS EVENING. TORNADOS POSSIBLY STRONG
AND VERY DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 80 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22055.


...HALES

[CrazyC83]

2244 82 5 S GODDARD SEDGWICK KS 3759 9758 (ICT)

82 mph wind report...

[Category 5]

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
550 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2008

KSC061-149-161-052300-
/O.CON.KTOP.TO.W.0012.000000T0000Z-080605T2300Z/
RILEY-POTTAWATOMIE-GEARY-
550 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT FOR EASTERN
GEARY...SOUTHWESTERN POTTAWATOMIE AND RILEY COUNTIES...

AT 545 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD TEN
MILES NORTHWEST OF ALTA VISTA. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 11 MILES SOUTH
OF OGDEN...OR 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF JUNCTION CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 60 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TUTTLE CREEK STATE PARK...WAMEGO...ST. GEORGE AND MANHATTAN.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 301 AND 317.

FOR YOUR SAFETY...GO TO A STORM SHELTER OR BASEMENT NOW! TORNADOES
MAY HAVE WINDS GREATER THAN 100 MPH. AVOID OVERPASSES AND WINDOWS...
AND COVER YOUR HEAD.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE
LATEST SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION.

LAT...LON 3920 9629 3916 9635 3917 9636 3916 9638
3917 9639 3912 9639 3888 9671 3896 9681
3936 9661
TIME...MOT...LOC 2250Z 214DEG 52KT 3901 9664

$$

KONOP/POAGE

[badger70]

I expect we'll see streaming coverage at some point tonight.

--------------------

Shawnee County Opens Tornado Shelters
Shawnee County Emergency Management is preparing for the possibility of severe storms in NE Kansas, including Shawnee County, Topeka and surrounding areas. The following shelters are opening at 6pm and everyone should be in place by 6:30pm.

Shawnee Heights Elementary (2410 SE Burton)
Tecumseh South Elementary (3346 SE Tecumseh Rd.)
Seaman High School (4850 NW Rochester)
Kansas Expocentre (Pets allowed)

In addition the City of Topeka will open all community centers and Big Gage Shelter House if and when a tornado impacts Topeka. These will only be open if a tornado impacts the City of Topeka.

Residents are encouraged to bring preparedness items for short-term sheltering. Emegerceny Management will be in contact with each shelter to give weather updates and check on shelter status.


Story Created: Jun 5, 2008 at 5:37 PM CDT

Story Updated: Jun 5, 2008 at 5:37 PM CDT

http://www.ksnt.com/news/local/19579719.html

[Weatherfreak14]

SPC disagrees with you btangy

Not really, his assessment is mostly in line with the SPC forecast.

Yea its now mostly a magaing wind threat from now into all night long. Its going to be a potienally scary night for alot of people,