June 4-7: Severe wx (Omaha tornado update)

[Weatherfreak14]

In my Opinion, I really think some of these watches should be PDS this is a very dangerous situation in many areas.

Yeah there were a couple that in the end warranted PDS but the environment isn't fully conducive for development (hard to believe, this is all happening with the environment at 50% of potential). Tomorrow we'll surely see some PDS watches.

I truely think tommrow will be the biggest outbreak thus far out of MAY and JUNE

[Bunkertor]

In my Opinion, I really think some of these watches should be PDS this is a very dangerous situation in many areas.

Yeah there were a couple that in the end warranted PDS but the environment isn't fully conducive for development (hard to believe, this is all happening with the environment at 50% of potential). Tomorrow we'll surely see some PDS watches.

I truely think tommrow will be the biggest outbreak thus far out of MAY and JUNE

Maybe. The other option would be that todays storms blow out a fairy slice of the energy.

btw: Detroit - Penguins : 3-1

[Weatherfreak14]

You Can see the Meso Extending upward into the supercell



3D SRV of Adams Co. IA Tornado.. Look to the left at the bottom u can see a tightening Meso.

[Weatherfreak14]

Now moving into Union Co. IA looking Impressive..

[Weatherfreak14]

Wow storm really looking healthy right now, possible strong tornado with this.

[Bunkertor]

Weatherfreak14: Awesome service.

This is definately a hell of a storm.

[Weatherfreak14]

thank you, hate to say it but i do have to get off i have finals tommrow. I will still be collecting data all night. I will be on for tommrows outbreak.

[Bunkertor]

Today i´ll set back my system time and maybe i can remove the GRLevel3 reg. So there is still a slight chance to contribute pics.

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1214
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0933 PM CDT WED JUN 04 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF IA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 453...

VALID 050233Z - 050400Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 453 CONTINUES.

LONG LIVED SUPERCELL OVER SWRN IA /WITH A HISTORY OF LARGE
TORNADOES/ WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EWD AROUND 20 KTS THROUGH SCENTRAL
IA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THE TORNADO
THREAT WILL REACH I-35 AROUND 04Z. MEANWHILE...LARGE SVR TSTM
SHOWING BOWING CHARACTERISTICS WILL MOVE AROUND 40 KTS INTO WRN
PORTIONS OF WW 453 BEFORE 04Z.

SFC ANALYSIS PLACES A STATIONARY FRONT RUNNING ROUGHLY ALONG THE
IA/MO BORDER. NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...LOW LEVEL ELY FLOW TURNS
QUICKLY TO SLY AT 1 KM SUPPORTING FAIRLY LARGE HODOGRAPHS /0-1 KM
SRH AROUND 300 M2/S2/. INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET...WILL SUPPORT
INCREASING LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ONLY GRADUALLY INCREASING CINH
OVER THE NXT FEW HRS. THUS LONG-LIVED SUPERCELL OVER UNION COUNTY AT
0230Z WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR TORNADOES /INCLUDING A FEW
STRONG/ OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL
CONTINUE ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF WW 453 OWING TO THE INCREASING LOW
LEVEL JET IMPINGING ON THE 850 MB FRONTAL ZONE. STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME MARGINAL HAIL THREAT WITH
THESE TSTMS ACROSS NRN IA. THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR
INCREASING STORM COVERAGE AND POSSIBLE SVR WW. SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AT THE SFC OVER THIS AREA SHOULD MITIGATE A THREAT FOR
TORNADOES WITH THIS CONVECTION.

OTHERWISE...SVR CONVECTIVE CLUSTER NEAR OMA METRO/SERN NEB
INDICATING BOWING CHARACTERISTICS WILL MOVE EWD AROUND 40 KTS INTO
WRN PORTIONS OF WW 453 /SWRN IA/ BY 0330Z. AS THIS CONVECTIVE LINE
MERGERS WITH OTHER CELLULAR CONVECTION...THE PRIMARY SVR THREAT WITH
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DMGG WIND.

..CROSBIE.. 06/05/2008


ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...FSD...OAX...

42959496 42299548 42019641 41629640 41409624 41429564
41189530 41089524 40699477 40649395 40799204 40969108
41769077 42109081 42289083 42629115 43129171 43169303
43099409

[CrazyC83]

Strongest wording I have ever seen without a tornado emergency:

TORNADO WARNING
IAC175-050315-
/O.NEW.KDMX.TO.W.0046.080605T0248Z-080605T0315Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
948 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DES MOINES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL UNION COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA...

* UNTIL 1015 PM CDT.

* AT 943 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO NEAR CRESTON...OR 54 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF DES MOINES...MOVING EAST AT 19 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF THE
INDICATED COUNTY.

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY LIFE THREATENING STORM. EXTENSIVE DAMAGE IS
LIKELY. GO TO A BASEMENT IMMEDIATELY...OR GO TO A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM
OF A SUBSTANTIAL BUILDING. COVER YOURSELF. IF YOU ARE IN A CAR OR
MOBILE HOME...ABANDON IT AND SEEK SHELTER IN A REINFORCED BUILDING.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT THURSDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTHERN IOWA.

LAT...LON 4114 9424 4090 9425 4090 9435 4109 9436
TIME...MOT...LOC 0248Z 255DEG 16KT 4100 9428

$$

SMALL

[btangy]

The Iowa supercell is straddling a very sharp gradient in surface based CAPE and EHI:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s5/ehi3.gif

As it continues slightly north of west, it should begin weaken in the next hour as it gets in to a slightly less unstable atmosphere. Already, the 0-3km helicity index in this area is locally above 600 m^2/s^2 with a sig tornado parameter (effective layer) above 9. These values are representative of the type of environment we'll have tomorrow, this long track supercell in IA is just a harbinger of what we'll see tomorrow.

[CrazyC83]

Seems like the Iowa cells are squalling, but it will be too far east to have a significant impact on tomorrow.

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1215
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1114 PM CDT WED JUN 04 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...ECENTRAL CO...NWRN/NCENTRAL KS...SRN NEB...FAR SWRN
IA..FAR NWRN MO

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 456...

VALID 050414Z - 050615Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 456 CONTINUES.

THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE OVER MAINLY ERN PORTIONS OF WW
456 THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...THE
WRN/FAR SRN PORTION OF WW 456 /ECENTRAL CO...NRN KS AND FAR SWRN
NEB/ WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED FROM THE WATCH BY 06Z.

STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA IMPINGING ON STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...COMBINED WITH INCREASING CINH SOUTH OF WW 456 /PER THE
00Z TOP AND DDC SOUNDINGS/ WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT TRAINING
CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS SCENTRAL/SERN NEB AND FAR SWRN IA FOR THE
SEVERAL HRS. ISOLATED TORNADOS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH ANY
DISCRETE CELL THAT CAN BE SUSTAINED WITHIN THIS CLUSTER...AS STRONG
LOW LEVEL JET /AROUND 50 KTS PER THE AEX AND TOP VWP DATA/ SUPPORTS
0-1 KM SRH AROUND 300 M2/S2. HOWEVER...GRADUALLY INCREASING CINH
OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS IS LIKELY TO BEGIN MITIGATING THE TORNADO
THREAT. AS THIS OCCURS...THE THREAT WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO HEAVY
RAIN...OR MAY EVOLVE INTO A SVR MCS IF CONVECTION CAN GROW UPSCALE
INTO SERN NEB/FAR SWRN IA/FAR NWRN MO. GIVEN STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL
FLOW FIELDS AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR...LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO REMAIN
POSSIBLE WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS.

FURTHER WEST...AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OVER SCENTRAL NEB WILL CONTINUE
TO POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES/LARGE HAIL AS IT MOVES EWD
AROUND 25 KTS TOWARDS THE KEARNEY AREA BY 06Z. ADDITIONAL SVR
CONVECTION WEST OF THIS SUPERCELL APPEARS UNLIKELY GIVEN INCREASING
CINH...DESPITE CONVERGENCE ALONG SWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER
FAR NWRN KS/ECENTRAL CO.

..CROSBIE.. 06/05/2008

[therock1811]

Tornado warning up southwest of Cincinnati, Ky.

That was my location...no touchdowns confirmed, however scattered wind damage probable along a line from Rising Sun, Indiana - 1S Richwood, KY.

[HarlequinBoy]

Hmm, a MOD risk today and tomorrow, but they didn't go HIGH yet like most expected.

[HarlequinBoy]

Maybe they will with the next update. I'm not sure how much all the convection in NE and IA will affect the forecast though, but storms are already firing in Colorado.

[wx247]

Maybe they will with the next update. I'm not sure how much all the convection in NE and IA will affect the forecast though, but storms are already firing in Colorado.

We should know within the half hour. I am most surprised that they took the moderate risk away from Oklahoma. I definitely think that will be "fixed" by this next update.

[liveweatherman]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1244 AM CDT THU JUN 05 2008

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
MID-UPPER MS VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM
WRN OK INTO THE GREAT LAKES...

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
PLAINS AND MID-UPPER MS VALLEY...

UPPER LOW ALONG THE UT/AZ BORDER IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EWD INTO SRN
CO LATER THIS MORNING AS UNUSUALLY STRONG SPEED MAX...H5 AOA
90KT...ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER SRN NM...THEN EJECTS NEWD
ACROSS THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS BEFORE LIFTING INTO SERN MN LATE IN THE
PERIOD. THIS FEATURE WILL INDUCE STRONG SFC CYCLOGENESIS OVER WRN
KS WHICH WILL LIFT NNEWD INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS AS FOCUSED HEIGHT
FALLS SPREAD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS. NEEDLESS TO SAY...VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL BE QUITE IMPRESSIVE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR FROM THE
PLAINS INTO THE MS VALLEY REGION WITH PROFILES MORE RESEMBLING
STRUCTURES OF EARLY SPRING. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
MODERATE RISK REGION FROM NEB INTO SRN MN WHERE TORNADOES AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY.

ONE COMPELLING FACTOR THAT HEAVILY INFLUENCED THE DECISION TO
MAINTAIN A MODERATE RISK IS THE EXPECTED STRONG CAP ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR. AS OF MIDNIGHT THIS MORNING...16C 700 MB TEMPERATURES WERE
SPREADING NNEWD ACROSS KS. THIS VERY WARM AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CNTRL PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY REGION...EFFECTIVELY
CAPPING THE WARM SECTOR WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE LARGE
SCALE COLD ADVECTION SHUNTS THE WARM PLUME EWD. IN FACT...AFTER
EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS SHIFT NEWD INTO WI/MI ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION WILL STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE IMMEDIATE WIND SHIFT
ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND MAY NOT DO SO UNTIL LATE FROM CNTRL NEB INTO
PORTIONS OF NWRN OK. LATEST NAMKF...WHICH IS USUALLY QUITE
AGGRESSIVE...INSISTS THE CAP WILL HOLD ACROSS MUCH OF OK INTO KS AND
GENERATES ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...BOTH
THE NAM AND GFS DO GENERATE PRECIPITATION LATE ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR AT LOWER LATITUDES. THERE IS GREAT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
COVERAGE SOUTH OF KANSAS. LATEST THINKING IS THE GREATEST
CONCENTRATION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS NEB/SERN
SD/WRN IA INTO SRN MN. THIS IS BASED ON MUCH COOLER THICKNESS
VALUES AND THE ENHANCED VERTICAL ASCENT/HEIGHT FALLS THAT WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THIS REGION ALONG RETREATING WARM FRONT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY STRONG SHEAR...SEEMINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF LONG
TRACK TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT
STRONGLY FORCED CONVECTION MAY EVOLVE INTO BOW ECHOES. THESE BOW
ECHOES MAY ULTIMATELY EVOLVE INTO LEWP TYPE STRUCTURES THAT MAY
PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WINDS OR PERHAPS EVOLVE INTO A DERECHO
AS IT MOVES ACROSS NEB INTO MN DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS.

...UPPER OH VALLEY/UPSTATE NY...

SUSTAINED WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTENING WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD ENHANCE THE PROSPECT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
PERIOD. ALTHOUGH LARGE SCALE HEIGHT RISES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION IT APPEARS DAYTIME HEATING ALONG WITH TERRAIN INFLUENCES WILL
ENHANCE THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
LARGE HAIL OR PERHAPS STRONG WINDS COULD ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY.

..DARROW/CROSBIE.. 06/05/2008

[HarlequinBoy]

Maybe they will with the next update. I'm not sure how much all the convection in NE and IA will affect the forecast though, but storms are already firing in Colorado.

We should know within the half hour. I am most surprised that they took the moderate risk away from Oklahoma. I definitely think that will be "fixed" by this next update.

They seem/ed pretty worried about the cap not busting.

[liveweatherman]

Latest:

This could be dangerous..nasty squall developing ahead..
Next 24hr Here: SUPER DOPPLER SQUALL LINE in Nebraska..