GOMERS watch next weekend for Claudette

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jul 08, 2003 7:52 am

All GOMERS you will have to watch very closely the track of what will be Tropical storm Claudette when it makes it into the GOM because conditions will be favorable down the road for it to develop.GFS model takes it into the GOM but we will have to wait for next runs for more data.The future track of the models show a cluster moving almost on a track like LILI did last year but of course that track could change with time.

GulfBreezer · #2 Postby **GulfBreezer** » Tue Jul 08, 2003 8:22 am

Well, well............seems us GOMers are having to watch the tropics alot lately!

I wonder if this is a prelude to the rest of the season? :?:

There was alot of talk about the east coast being a big bulls-eye this year but I think I am carrying that bulls-eye on my back!! :o We have had flooding and massive river cresting problems here and absolutely can't handle more rain. OMILORDY...........It is ONLY July 8th!! :o

Well, we will definitely be watching and the local mets are watching too!

Sandi

Lindaloo · #3 Postby **Lindaloo** » Tue Jul 08, 2003 8:56 am

Well we had to watch the Gulf LAST YEAR!! Enough already.

#4 Postby **vbhoutex** » Tue Jul 08, 2003 9:31 am

GulfBreezer wrote:Well, well............seems us GOMers are having to watch the tropics alot lately! I wonder if this is a prelude to the rest of the season? There was alot of talk about the east coast being a big bulls-eye this year but I think I am carrying that bulls-eye on my back!! :o We have had flooding and massive river cresting problems here and absolutely can't handle more rain. OMILORDY...........It is ONLY July 8th!! :o

Well, we will definitely be watching and the local mets are watching too!

Sandi

Was that you I saw with that bullseye on the back as I crossed Escambia Bay on I-10? I can absolutely back you up on the no more!! Every creek, bayou, or river we crossed on our trek back to Houston from Niceville was at or near bankfull or still flooding. The entire Gulf coast from the FL panhandle to Central LA DOES NOT NEED ANY MORE RAIN!

With high pressure continuing to ridge W across Central FL I don't see a quick end ot the GOMER watch that is now in effect.

Rainband · #5 Postby **Rainband** » Tue Jul 08, 2003 9:34 am

I hear the high is supposed to build back east??? :roll:

Thats what our locals are saying!!!!!!!! :wink:

Guest · #6 Postby **Guest** » Tue Jul 08, 2003 9:39 am

How does the high affect you and tropical action Rainband?

Rainband · #7 Postby **Rainband** » Tue Jul 08, 2003 9:45 am

ticka1 wrote:How does the high affect you and tropical action Rainband?

Never had a storm so I don't know :roll:

Rainband · #8 Postby **Rainband** » Tue Jul 08, 2003 9:54 am

EXTENDED (FRI-MON)...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO PREVIOUS THINKING DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. DEEP MEAN TROF WILL SET UP OVER EASTERN N.A.
HELPING TO FORCE THE SURFACE RIDGE INTO THE SOUTHERN FA. THIS WILL
INTRODUCE SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND
THE WEEKEND. STILL GOING WITH SCATTERED DIURNAL POPS...ALTHOUGH WE
NEED TO SEE IF ANY TROPICAL MOISTURE GETS ENTRAINED FROM THE SOUTH
OVER THE WEEKEND...WHICH WOULD INCREASE RAIN COVERAGE.

MARINE...NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED WITH WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS

FIRE WX...NO CONCERNS

CCFTBW

GulfBreezer · #9 Postby **GulfBreezer** » Tue Jul 08, 2003 12:02 pm

VB- sorry I missed you while you were here! Glad you got to see my bulls-eye though!! :lol:

It is a mess here and without a nice long break, it will end up being a very dangerous situation if more rain heads this way, which looks to me like an extremely good possibilty. I know that most counties here are already talking about some pro-active measures but realistically there is not a whole helluva lot you can do before the fact.

Take care!

Rainband · #10 Postby **Rainband** » Tue Jul 08, 2003 12:05 pm

One model has it in the se gom..most have it heading west!! Guess it will be wait and see :o

Guest · #11 Postby **Guest** » Tue Jul 08, 2003 12:06 pm

Any of the model maps being updated or do they usually wait until its a TD or greater? Haven't seen ScottVa's link yet.

Rainband · #12 Postby **Rainband** » Tue Jul 08, 2003 12:12 pm

ticka1 wrote:Any of the model maps being updated or do they usually wait until its a TD or greater? Haven't seen ScottVa's link yet.

Don't know..haven't seen steve post yet either :roll:

He is usually pretty close!! :wink:

PTrackerLA · #13 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Tue Jul 08, 2003 12:17 pm

VB, I noticed the same thing when we went to florida last week! The traffic in Niceville was terrible too! Anyway, this one is starting to get me worried. It looks like a TS on sat. right now and I remember Lili and Izzy came from the same general area. We all need to watch this one as it could be in the gulf as early as Friday.

southerngale · #14 Postby **southerngale** » Tue Jul 08, 2003 12:20 pm

I went to Scott's model map page and got this:

Important note: There will be *no* model maps generated between
July 6 and July 12, 2003 as I will be away at Boy Scout camp.
All other Hurricane and WeatherCenter products will continue normally.
Thanks. Scott Lancey

Guest · #15 Postby **Guest** » Tue Jul 08, 2003 12:21 pm

Thanks Kelly for the update. I'll just have to do with what I can find and word of mouth.

Patricia

ColdFront77 · #16 Postby **ColdFront77** » Tue Jul 08, 2003 3:17 pm

Patricia, with a tropical cyclone in the Caribbean and a high pressure over the southeastern U.S. and/or off the southeast coast of the U.S. can easily cause the tropical system to move more northerly, thus not getting much of a westerly component to move into the Gulf of Mexico and then points westward.

GOMERS watch next weekend for Claudette

GOMERS watch next weekend for Claudette

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