Arthur's remnents near the BOC

[gatorcane]

I just opened up a new thread because of the NW Caribbean development possibilities not related to Arthur:

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=101197

[NDG]

I wonder why NOAA satellites are not updating.
But anyway, no signs of surface low circulation redeveloping in the area.

[gatorcane]

It looks to me like another LLC is trying to form just west of the deep convection over the Gulf of Honduras. Movement: stationary:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-vis.html

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looking at the lower level "clouds" you can see that there is a westly flow at 17.8-18.2 north, a southly flow at near 90-91 west, and then a eastly flow of the clouds at 18.5-19.5 north into the BOC. By "flow" I mean direction of the lower level cloud movement. Based on that I would say that the LLC is near 18.5 north/91.2 west and is 40 percent into the BOC. The center is still on land by about 40-50 miles...But who knows...You can clearly see the lower level clouds of the northern side.

So it is not yet dead, but chances are not to high. But its a wait in see still.

[Recurve]

Unbelievable that this is not dying, dying, dead.
Top winds still 40 mph.
"TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES" from center

Interesting, maybe the remnants eventually get lifted toward Florida as the GFS hinted last week?

[tailgater]

Well it looks like Arthur's reign is over. I Think I see his LLC drifting to W While there is a dying MLC over Northern Guatemala and one that bears watching along the northern coasr of Belize.
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at1_0.html

[tolakram]

If I didn't know anything about Arthur I would be wondering why an invest wasn't on that area of convection in the NW Caribbean that appears to be stationary or moving NE.

[cycloneye]

WTNT21 KNHC 011435
TCMAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ARTHUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012008
1500 UTC SUN JUN 01 2008

AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENTS OF BELIZE AND MEXICO HAVE
DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS.


TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 90.7W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 90.7W AT 01/1500Z...INLAND
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 90.4W...INLAND

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 17.9N 91.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 17.7N 92.5W...INLAND REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 17.5N 93.6W...INLAND REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 17.4N 94.7W...INLAND REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 90.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN

[Chacor]

342
WTNT41 KNHC 011436
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012008
1100 AM EDT SUN JUN 01 2008

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT
ARTHUR'S CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BECOME ELONGATED AND CONTINUES TO
BE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. BASED ON THE OVERALL DECREASE IN
ORGANIZATION...ARTHUR HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 30 KT. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND
ARTHUR COULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

ARTHUR HAS TURNED TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH AN INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE OF 250/07. A GENERAL WESTWARD-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS KEEPING ARTHUR...OR ITS
REMNANTS...OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS
ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND THERE NOW APPEARS TO BE LITTLE CHANCE
THAT THE CYCLONE WILL EMERGE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

DESPITE THE DOWNGRADE TO A DEPRESSION AND ADDITIONAL FORECAST
WEAKENING...ARTHUR WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUDSLIDES OVER GUATEMALA...SOUTHERN MEXICO...AND BELIZE FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/1500Z 18.1N 90.7W 30 KT...INLAND
12HR VT 02/0000Z 17.9N 91.6W 25 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 02/1200Z 17.7N 92.5W 25 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 03/0000Z 17.5N 93.6W 20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 03/1200Z 17.4N 94.7W 20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN

[Chacor]

Looking at the lower level "clouds" you can see that there is a westly flow at 17.8-18.2 north, a southly flow at near 90-91 west, and then a eastly flow of the clouds at 18.5-19.5 north into the BOC. By "flow" I mean direction of the lower level cloud movement. Based on that I would say that the LLC is near 18.5 north/91.2 west and is 40 percent into the BOC. The center is still on land by about 40-50 miles...But who knows...You can clearly see the lower level clouds of the northern side.

So it is not yet dead, but chances are not to high. But its a wait in see still.

TPC obviously disagrees:
ARTHUR HAS TURNED TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH AN INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE OF 250/07. A GENERAL WESTWARD-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS KEEPING ARTHUR...OR ITS
REMNANTS...OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS
ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND THERE NOW APPEARS TO BE LITTLE CHANCE
THAT THE CYCLONE WILL EMERGE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

[tolakram]

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

These pics are still updating. Unless I'm looking at an old image it appears something is just coming on shore. I is confused.

[MiamiensisWx]

Earlier, some posts were criticizing the NHC's track and implied the possibility of a more northward track.

Later, it turns out that Arthur will never even enter the Bay of Campeche because of shear from the upper low.

Consistency wins again.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looking at the lower level "clouds" you can see that there is a westly flow at 17.8-18.2 north, a southly flow at near 90-91 west, and then a eastly flow of the clouds at 18.5-19.5 north into the BOC. By "flow" I mean direction of the lower level cloud movement. Based on that I would say that the LLC is near 18.5 north/91.2 west and is 40 percent into the BOC. The center is still on land by about 40-50 miles...But who knows...You can clearly see the lower level clouds of the northern side.

So it is not yet dead, but chances are not to high. But its a wait in see still.

TPC obviously disagrees:
ARTHUR HAS TURNED TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH AN INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE OF 250/07. A GENERAL WESTWARD-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS KEEPING ARTHUR...OR ITS
REMNANTS...OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS
ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND THERE NOW APPEARS TO BE LITTLE CHANCE
THAT THE CYCLONE WILL EMERGE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

Obviously, they are tracking the broad LLC over land, but there is a more defined LLC just inland near were I pointed out. But of course slam me; Heck thats the way people have treated me over the last few years. I've done nothing but try to do my best, but to be treated with disrespect. Why discount me like that with no proof of your own?

[Chacor]

I'd advise you to read my post again. All I said was the TPC does not see it the way you see it. I did not "slam you" nor "treat [you] with disrespect" nor "discount you". Unless, of course, you're referring to someone else.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I'd advise you to read my post again. All I said was the TPC does not see it the way you see it. I did not "slam you" nor "treat [you] with disrespect" nor "discount you". Unless, of course, you're referring to someone else.

I see a broad LLC, but I see the "core" or the triple point near 17.8 north/89.8 west drifting around. But you can also see the lower level clouds of a Low level circ near were I pointed out. I agree with the nhc about the center of the broad LLC being were they have it. But feel that is as good as dead as is, so its time to focus on anything close to the BOC.

I won't say anything more about the disrespect thing; I just feel that it was pointed kind of harshly in a way to tell me that I was totally wrong.

Anyways take a look at the satellite...
http://www.cira.colostate.edu/cira/RAMM ... pical.html

Personally, I don't think anything is going to form...In think if by chance we get another Jose, Bret then its worth watching.

[StormspinnerD2]

There doesn't appear to be a LLC associated with the (weakening) convection off the coast, just what's left of the broad one inland. There are also no signs of a formative LLC anywhere else.

[jlauderdal]

Looking at the lower level "clouds" you can see that there is a westly flow at 17.8-18.2 north, a southly flow at near 90-91 west, and then a eastly flow of the clouds at 18.5-19.5 north into the BOC. By "flow" I mean direction of the lower level cloud movement. Based on that I would say that the LLC is near 18.5 north/91.2 west and is 40 percent into the BOC. The center is still on land by about 40-50 miles...But who knows...You can clearly see the lower level clouds of the northern side.

So it is not yet dead, but chances are not to high. But its a wait in see still.

TPC obviously disagrees:
ARTHUR HAS TURNED TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH AN INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE OF 250/07. A GENERAL WESTWARD-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS KEEPING ARTHUR...OR ITS
REMNANTS...OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS
ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND THERE NOW APPEARS TO BE LITTLE CHANCE
THAT THE CYCLONE WILL EMERGE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

Obviously, they are tracking the broad LLC over land, but there is a more defined LLC just inland near were I pointed out. But of course slam me; Heck thats the way people have treated me over the last few years. I've done nothing but try to do my best, but to be treated with disrespect. Why discount me like that with no proof of your own?

its june 1 and people are feeling dissed, wait till we actually get something worth arguing over. maybe there should be a smackdown avatar people can use instead of writing harsh words to lighten things up a bit. its a hurricane discussion board, not brain surgery here.

[Sanibel]

Looking at that energy Arthur maintained feeding-in off the Caribbean I think we would have had an Alma-type hurricane if it stayed over water and tracked north into the Gulf.

Subtropical isn't correct because the system has good shape still. There's the illusion of reformation off Yucatan in the Caribbean but a sharp eye can see the surface feature spinning over by west Yucatan, so decoupled with a well east upper reflection is more accurate. Looks like a cool synoptic to the north squashed it.

[wxman57]

The convection off the coast is puzzling. I'm wondering why it won't die off or move inland.

Cyclone1, take a look at a water vapor loop and I think you'll get your answer. Very dry air is spilling into the southern BoC and western Yucatan today as the ridge builds over northern Mexico and the western Gulf. As is the case with any building ridge, there's a trof downstream (across the western Caribbean). Thunderstorms are continuing to fire along the trof axis east of the Yucatan. They're not really associated with Arthur's circulation any more.

If you look at the latest surface analysis (below), there's no LLC in the western Caribbean. In fact, pressures are much higher now (up to 1014-1015mb). But we will need to watch for any persistent storms in the SW-W Caribbean this week. That large gyre spinning vort maxes across the western Caribbean could spark another Arthur-type low later this coming week:

[wxman57]

I'd like to make a point about low-level circulations. Just reading through the posts, I see various debates/arguments that the "LLC is here" or the "LLC is reforming there", or "You're nuts, there's no LLC there, it's here!".

I think back to one "storm" in the Caribbean maybe 3-4 years ago. It sure looked impressive on visible satellite with a "clear LLC" and winds probably at TS strength or higher. There was griping about why the NHC wasn't calling it a storm. It even looked like a storm to me. But when the recon arrived they could not find any LLC. The circulation we were all seeing was above the surface a few thousand feet or so. That's where you're looking even if you're using visible satellite - you're not necessarily seeing surface winds.

The only way to definitively state that an LLC is here or there is with surface observations. It's not wrong to say that there appears to be a surface circulation here or there based on satellite loops, but you can't declare you're right and someone else is wrong unless you have reliable surface observations across the area.