Arthur's remnents near the BOC

[Javlin]

THE CENTER OF ARTHUR REMAINS INLAND OVER THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA OF MEXICO...BUT MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER
IS WELL REMOVED FROM THAT LOCATION.

ESSENTIALLY NO DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN OCCURRING RECENTLY IN THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.

Can any mets suggest why this isn't being classed as subtropical, with the above admitted in the discussion?

I plotted the obs across the western Caribbean from 21z to now and can't find anything to suggest more than 15-20 kts offshore. NHC probably playing it safe in case that area of squalls just offshore has a small pocket of TS winds. Unlikely, but not impossible. New track keeps shifting left. Strong ridge building to its north. Hopefully the LLC will dissipate tonight.

But doesn't that play to the models for later this week of another low developing in the WCarib?

[HURAKAN]

This ship's weather station must be experiencing some serious technical difficulties:

SHIP S 0000 20.60 -86.80 202 49 140 97.9 - 8.2 4.0 - - 29.85 -0.02 78.8 83.3 77.0

[lrak]

How powerful are the steering currents, could Author drift back into the Caribbean like it did earlier today?

[tailgater]

Is there a mid level circ, along or off the east coast of Belize.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-jsl.html

[gatorcane]

the fact that the convection seems to not want to leave the NW Caribbean continues to bother me. As I watch whatever is left of Arthur get steered W by a ridge to the north, the monsoon trough now over the NW Caribbean needs a bear watch as it remains stationary:

[gatorcane]

Latest water vapor imagery reveals what could be a developing upper level low to the north-northeast of Arthur. It seems to me that upper level winds are starting to impinge in the northwest portion of the circulation. Does anyone else see this? If this trend continues, I believe this could affect the strength of Arthur over the Bay of Campeche or it could even allow Arthur to stay stationary near the west coast of the Yucatan for some while.

No models show this as far as I can tell, but I think it bears some watching...

indeed I also see this. See comment above

[MGC]

Does look like the ridge over Texas is building southward. Might not reach the BOC. NHC track makes sense.....MGC

[gatorcane]

The ULL that Hyperstorm speaks of is seen on this loop. It's what *could* keep the convection building in the NW Caribbean sea from moving much:

Look at CC spin at the northern tip of the Yucatan:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

[Javlin]

It looks like the GOH again maybe the place to watch in a couple of days could be interesting.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

If Arthur stays inland, which is looking increasely possible. He will likely be looked back on in November "as the lee" of 2008. Very weird system and something to watch, but not a real big deal.

[tailgater]

Latest water vapor imagery reveals what could be a developing upper level low to the north-northeast of Arthur. It seems to me that upper level winds are starting to impinge in the northwest portion of the circulation. Does anyone else see this? If this trend continues, I believe this could affect the strength of Arthur over the Bay of Campeche or it could even allow Arthur to stay stationary near the west coast of the Yucatan for some while.

No models show this as far as I can tell, but I think it bears some watching...

indeed I also see this. See comment above

Nice job Hyper. We can watch and see if this feature develops a little better on this loop.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Latest water vapor imagery reveals what could be a developing upper level low to the north-northeast of Arthur. It seems to me that upper level winds are starting to impinge in the northwest portion of the circulation. Does anyone else see this? If this trend continues, I believe this could affect the strength of Arthur over the Bay of Campeche or it could even allow Arthur to stay stationary near the west coast of the Yucatan for some while.

No models show this as far as I can tell, but I think it bears some watching...

indeed I also see this. See comment above

Nice job Hyper. We can watch and see if this feature develops a little better on this loop.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html

I've got to agree with you on this...Even if this makes it into the BOC this could keep this from strengthen to fast.

[Sanibel]

Weakening systems have their highest winds expand outward into the bands, so the TS winds in those heavy bands over the Caribbean might have been the storm's energy spreading out in a weakening phase like subtropical transition. The center appears to be elongating possibly on shortwave. It appears to be in a stationary wobble. I want to say show's over folks but those who have been on this board a long time know why you shouldn't. I wouldn't discount anything in this scenario including dissipation.

[ROCK]

Weakening systems have their highest winds expand outward into the bands, so the TS winds in those heavy bands over the Caribbean might have been the storm's energy spreading out in a weakening phase like subtropical transition. The center appears to be elongating possibly on shortwave. It appears to be in a stationary wobble. I want to say show's over folks but those who have been on this board a long time know why you shouldn't. I wouldn't discount anything in this scenario including dissipation.

I 100% agree with your analysis as I am seeing the same thing. LLC (whats left of it) looked to have wobbled south.

[boca]

I wonder what that blow up of thunderstorms off the Yucatan will look like in the morning.

[Sanibel]

If it tracks west into Mexico like the models say it's done.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Looking at above linked WV loop, I have a hard time seeing how Arthur ever gets back over water. Amateur speculation, of course.


This might actually increase chance for needed Florida rain. Arthur moves inland and the surface circulation dissipates, maybe a new low forms where the storms are over water in a few days, when the mondo ridge isn't covering all of the Gulf quite so effectively.

GFS seems to imply a weakness in about 5 days in the ridge that might open the Central or Eastern Gulf for something from the Caribbean.



Western Gulf looks hostile just based on GFS showing relative humidities at 700 mb below 30% the next six days. No rain for SE Texas, which is bad, but at 156 hours, GFS shows a nice bend in the isobars in the eastern Gulf with beneficial rain for Florida...

[boca]

If it tracks west into Mexico like the models say it's done.

True but is that complex of storms off the coast part of Aurthur or the monsoon trough?

[ROCK]

I want to say it was the GFS a few days ago that suggested a stall over the YUC until the the ridge broke down and shunted it off into FL.......A lot of people discounted it as a garbage run...so did I....hmmm

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Weakening systems have their highest winds expand outward into the bands, so the TS winds in those heavy bands over the Caribbean might have been the storm's energy spreading out in a weakening phase like subtropical transition. The center appears to be elongating possibly on shortwave. It appears to be in a stationary wobble. I want to say show's over folks but those who have been on this board a long time know why you shouldn't. I wouldn't discount anything in this scenario including dissipation.

I 100% agree with your analysis as I am seeing the same thing. LLC (whats left of it) looked to have wobbled south.

I agree and that wobble is kind of like a man running up a hill trail with no fence, with a 200 foot drop only feet to the other side of him, and he gets dizzy and makes a mistake. Him like this storm are then in trouble.

I will wait intill this Morning before brining Dr.McCoy in to declare it dead if it don't move .5-.8 north.