Arthur's remnents near the BOC

[Derek Ortt]

I doubt that

a weak TS with a broad center usually will maintain its intensitya cross the Yucatan

[StormspinnerD2]

Somehow, it is still a tropical storm despite no surface observations that indicate that status. If this is due to some policy change, it's not a good one.

[stormy1970al]

Derek, I agree, that it might not be Arthur that does the north movement. However, with the pattern off the east coast and the high in the position that it is in, there will should still be mass convergence into the western carrib. I feel like if that continues then there will be a fairly healthy trof that could/should get close enough to draw something north (if there is a cyclone there)

Yeah, next week anything coming from the trough is likely to move north

speaking of the trough, we need to get the monsoon trough out of the Carib, or at least into the SW Carib where it belongs if it is in the Carib. We know what happens if the monsoon trough lingers in the Carib

When you say moving North next Weekend are we talking about the Central Gulf Coast? I know this is off subject but I have a major birthday party on Mobile Bay plan for my daughter. Please let all weather stay away till that night.

On the more serious side I think this system is going wnw and possibility nw later but not a threat for the US. Of course I could be wrong.

[KWT]

So Derek is it possible it will remain a TS overland and then possibly emerge into the BoC, because if it does then we will really have to watch the BoC as I remember in 05 several systems formed very rapidly down there from a lot less then even a TD.

I guess that there will be surface data to support Ts status still and besides it hasn't change din roganisation at all so no reason to dwongrade it.

[MGC]

Must say I'm surprised at this upgrade, I didn't expect it. Arthur has a chance to make it across Yucatan and reintensify over the BOC. If that happens there is a good chance it could reach hurricane intensity prior to landfall in Mexico.....MGC

[StormspinnerD2]

So Derek is it possible it will remain a TS overland and then possibly emerge into the BoC, because if it does then we will really have to watch the BoC as I remember in 05 several systems formed very rapidly down there from a lot less then even a TD.

I guess that there will be surface data to support Ts status still and besides it hasn't change din roganisation at all so no reason to dwongrade it.

If there is, I want to see it, because most of the inland stations in that area are only reporting light winds.

[Ad Novoxium]

Arthur is starting to creep me out, because the track plus the five day is bringing to mind Hurricane Stan.

I think I predict...makes it over the Yucatan as a TD, hits the GoM, and tops out as a Category 1 just before landfall, but makes a northward turn before the landfall, allowing it the strengthening.

NOTE: Not an official forecast or sponsored by an official forecast. Not to be taken seriously.

[KWT]

Yeah I would as well StormspinnerD2!

MGC, as I said in the chatroom systems down there have a nasty habit of devloping rapidly, if it can get away from land enough then its quite possible it will develop strongly, esp if it can maintain its decent convective coverage like presently.

By the way even if it headed due west it would have 185 miles of water ahead of it roughly in the BoC, though it gets very close to land most of the time.

Stan may wel be a comprasion to use IF it gains enough latitude, may get a similar track out of it as well.

[Derek Ortt]

Somehow, it is still a tropical storm despite no surface observations that indicate that status. If this is due to some policy change, it's not a good one.

give it up. There were reports last evenin from ships. Also, there likely are TS winds in bands offshore.

The reaosn it was not upgraded yesterday was no closed surface circulation

[KWT]

Yep Derek there was a ship report this morning if I recall correctly that showed wind gusts upto 44kts I believe, can't remember what sustaine dit was at but I dare say it was in the TS range.

[drezee]

Joe Bastardi Quote...

"Not a good start to the season. "

[djones65]

There were two ship reports of tropical storm force winds and many others near the cusp. Stormspinner I don't understand your objection to this being a named storm. There is sufficient evidence in my opinion that this was and is a tropical storm. At 0600 UTC or thereabout an unidentified ship reported 44 knot southeast winds and at 1300 UTC another ship reported east southeasterly winds of 35 knots. I saw numerous reports in the Yucatan Channel of 27 to 30 knots. Buoy 42056 reported sustained winds of 31 knots and gusts to 35 knots on the hourly reports. NHC very likely has even more frequent updates to that buoy. The satellite signature is very impressive in my opinion, and the low level circulation is very well defined. Thus, it was named tropical storm Arthur. I imagine as Thunder alluded to earlier that there was likely some "in house" debate about naming it since it was already on the coast in Belize. But the Yucatan is more of a plateau and is less likely to destroy a broad system like this.

[robbielyn]

Hi everyone. Wow first not even a possibility to welcome to dinner arthur. Man what a shocker. My concern is last year the u.s. had a strong ridge keeping everything south and central america got hit with two if not three(can't exactly remember) cat 5's. I wonder if that is what will happen again this year. We need the rain here and i hope the ridge doesn't prevent that from happening. We need a good ts to drop us some rain. Barry was a joke last year. Used to be we could count on june bringing us a soaker.

[KWT]

GFS has started about 1 degree too far south on the 18z, though it does jump the center NW upto about where it is presently in latitude by around 12hrs. May mean the center will be a touch further north then the 18Z is progging.

[boca]

By later next week the high is expected to move east enough to produce a SE flow over Florida which will tap the Caribbean moisture and pull it north so we have a shot at rain.

[drezee]

Buoy 42056 recorded a max one-minute average wind speed of 35.0 kts. That was the nail in the coffin.

Also reported wind gusts to 41kts ~47mph

31/15 42056 19.9 -85.1 24.7 22.4 150 27 G 31 160 41 1014.6 2.3 28.2 3.0 8 42056
31/16 42056 19.9 -85.1 26.1 23.5 140 29 G 35 130 35 1014.8 1.0 28.2 2.5 8 42056
31/17 42056 19.9 -85.1 25.2 23.4 150 21 G 25 140 35 1014.9 0.3 28.2 2.5 8 42056


Enough said...

[KWT]

Yeah djones65 i think thats evidence enough for this system to be upgraded. Also should be noted that it was just crossing the coast as it was upgraded so they probably decided they may as well upgrade it.

Its going to be very interesting to see how Aurthur holds up over the next 24hrs over land roughly.

Dreeze, yep given all the other data I think thats good enough reason.

[senorpepr]

So Derek is it possible it will remain a TS overland and then possibly emerge into the BoC, because if it does then we will really have to watch the BoC as I remember in 05 several systems formed very rapidly down there from a lot less then even a TD.

I guess that there will be surface data to support Ts status still and besides it hasn't change din roganisation at all so no reason to dwongrade it.

If there is, I want to see it, because most of the inland stations in that area are only reporting light winds.

With a storm of this strength, of course you won't find significant winds inland. Even in the discussions, the supporting tropical storm strength winds were over water, as supported by a ship and a buoy. Derek also makes a good point--the remaining tropical storm force winds probably remain over water, associated with convective bands.

Furthermore, there is currently a ship approx. 138nm SSE of the center of circulation that is reporting 24KT winds. That would also indicate stronger winds possible closer to the center, over water.

[drezee]

also 42056 had a 10-minute sustained wind of 31.3 kts: 1-min winds are approx 12% higher than 10-minute winds

therefore, 31.3kt *1.12 = 35.1 kts

[physicx07]

Sorry if someone already noticed this, I just logged on for the day.

In the latest VIS loop it looks like the LLC is separating from a lot of the convection as the LLC is moving more inland over the Yucatan.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html