Arthur's remnents near the BOC

#341 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat May 31, 2008 1:45 pm

I dont know about you but I think that GFS will be the model of the year after this first nailed scenarios that it had for many days.

#342 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat May 31, 2008 1:47 pm

Derek Ortt · #343 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Sat May 31, 2008 1:48 pm

other models also did quite well with this one. GFS was not exactly unique in depicting development

#344 Postby **CrazyC83** » Sat May 31, 2008 1:48 pm

Welcome to the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season...11 hours early.

#345 Postby **CrazyC83** » Sat May 31, 2008 1:54 pm

It's the first fully tropical storm to form in May since 1981.

Derek Ortt · #346 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Sat May 31, 2008 2:00 pm

structure holding together. I do not expect the overall structure to deteriorate all that much and we could see significant intensification if this moves into the BOC

Aric Dunn · #347 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Sat May 31, 2008 2:01 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:It's the first fully tropical storm to form in May since 1981.

really ... ??? hmmmm..... i know we had sub tropical become tropical ..

#348 Postby **tolakram** » Sat May 31, 2008 2:03 pm

---

I'm not sure they backdated, it seems to me they are following a set of rules, data arrived that confirmed this was a TS, so they updated as soon as they got the news.

I'm still stunned.

#349 Postby **srainhoutx** » Sat May 31, 2008 2:06 pm

tolakram wrote:---

I'm not sure they backdated, it seems to me they are following a set of rules, data arrived that confirmed this was a TS, so they updated as soon as they got the news.

I'm still stunned.

Snipet from disco gives the key...

THIS IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...SHIP DATA
AND A NOAA BUOY 42056 WHICH REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF TROPICAL
STORM FORCE.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1710.shtml

#350 Postby **srainhoutx** » Sat May 31, 2008 2:07 pm

srainhoutx wrote:
tolakram wrote:---

I'm not sure they backdated, it seems to me they are following a set of rules, data arrived that confirmed this was a TS, so they updated as soon as they got the news.

I'm still stunned.

Snipet from disco gives the key...Lessons from Humberto last year were learned well. :wink:

THIS IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...SHIP DATA
AND A NOAA BUOY 42056 WHICH REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF TROPICAL
STORM FORCE.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1710.shtml

#351 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Sat May 31, 2008 2:09 pm

Indeed a surprise that we got two TS out of this trough this quickly behind one another. This season starts with a bang!

KWT · #352 Postby **KWT** » Sat May 31, 2008 2:14 pm

WOW...I looked 6hrs ago saw invest 90L...come back and found TS Arthur...yet another pre-season tropcial storm...if only just!

I'm going to have to catch up with what has happened, I do recall some places showing TS winds so if it carried on showing the organisation it did 12hrs ago its not all that surprising it got upgraded...I guess it skipped the TD status???

#353 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat May 31, 2008 2:16 pm

12z UKMET

njweather · #354 Postby **njweather** » Sat May 31, 2008 2:18 pm

For those who have kids:

I pray that this system is as harmless as its cartoon namesake...

Anyways, NWS from New Orleans:

LONG TERM...
THE GFS AND ECMWF STILL SHOW A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
MOVING EAST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN ENHANCED SOUTHEAST FLOW IS STILL
FORECAST TO SURGE OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO...BUT THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS DELAYED IN ITS ARRIVAL TO THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST...NOW NOT REACHING OUR AREA UNTIL NEXT
SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. HAVE CUT BACK ON SOME OF THE RAIN
CHANCES IN THE DAY 7 TO 8 PERIODS.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #355 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sat May 31, 2008 2:19 pm

It was likely a strong depression or tropical storm as early as 5am est. I was just being careful in knowing that it was very close to the shoreline and was likely to move inland. But anyways we got Aurther.

The LLC is now at 18.3/88.9 and about ready to move out of Belize and into Mexico. I expect the "centercore" or LLC to become less Organized over the next 12-18 hours as it moves over the Yuctan. It will likely take a day to regain tropical storm strength. I agree with the NHC there.

Cyclone1 · #356 Postby **Cyclone1** » Sat May 31, 2008 2:19 pm

Ugh, I was hoping to avoid the cartoon puns.

I guess it was inevitable. :wink:

#357 Postby **senorpepr** » Sat May 31, 2008 2:20 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:It's the first fully tropical storm to form in May since 1981.

really ... ??? hmmmm..... i know we had sub tropical become tropical ..

I think CrazyC83 is referring to systems that formed as fully tropical systems rather than hybrid systems that transitioned to tropical systems.

Ad Novoxium · #358 Postby **Ad Novoxium** » Sat May 31, 2008 2:23 pm

Wha...Arthur? Already?!?

Derek Ortt · #359 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Sat May 31, 2008 2:25 pm

I dont think this will take that long to regain TS status over the BOC tomorrow. If this gets 24-36 hours over the water, we could see a strong TS at landfall

Scorpion · #360 Postby **Scorpion** » Sat May 31, 2008 2:26 pm

Wow, I was not expecting to be tracking so early! Welcome 2008 Hurricane Season!

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