Arthur's remnents near the BOC

[cycloneye]

844
WTNT31 KNHC 311753
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012008
200 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2008

...TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN OVER LAND LATER TODAY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE...AND
FOR MEXICO FROM CABO CATOCHE SOUTHWARD TO THE BORDER WITH BELIZE.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE...WITHIN THE NEXT 6
TO 12 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.6 WEST OR ABOUT 50
MILES... 80 KM...NORTH-NORTHWEST OF BELIZE CITY AND ABOUT 185
MILES ...300 KM...SOUTHWEST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

ARTHUR IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. ON
THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION WILL BE MOVING OVER YUCATAN
TODAY AND EARLY SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE OCCURRING PRIMARILY OVER WATER WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE CENTER. ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
TODAY AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND OVER YUCATAN.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES...415 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES OVER BELIZE AND PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...18.3 N...88.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/RHOME

[HURAKAN]

Surprise, surprise, surprise!!!

Two years in a row with a storm before the season begins.

[srainhoutx]

There is obviously a new philosophy about upgrades at the NHC. Retro-upgrading Arthur is a particular shock, but in general Alma and Arthur got upgraded much earlier than they would have been in the past two years. The past two years were mostly "is there ANY excuse not to upgrade" and now it looks like a "best evidence" policy. I like the new philosophy, but it's still going to take some getting used to!

Bill Read continues to do a great job as he did as Head of KHGX. Lookig forward to his leadership at NHC.

[Nimbus]

That ridge looks like it will keep whatever remains of Arthur over land. If the ridge shifted east fast enough it could pull some energy north into the Bay of Campeche which would cause more of a rain event for Mexico. Alma caused one plane crash in the Honduras but as Arthur I doubt it will make the crossover back to the Pacific. It should just die out over Mexico if we are lucky.

[Recurve]

I was wrong too, didn't think it was coming together like this. Must eat my crow now. NDG had it.

[Thunder44]

There is obviously a new philosophy about upgrades at the NHC. Retro-upgrading Arthur is a particular shock, but in general Alma and Arthur got upgraded much earlier than they would have been in the past two years. The past two years were mostly "is there ANY excuse not to upgrade" and now it looks like a "best evidence" policy. I like the new philosophy, but it's still going to take some getting used to!

Bill Read continues to do a great job as he did as Head of KHGX. Lookig forward to his leadership at NHC.

I would of liked to have seen the infighting that occured to get this thing named.

[PTrackerLA]

Wow can't believe we have Arthur already but given the satellite presentation it sure looks like a weak TS. Only thing that concerns me is if it moves slowly once in the BOC and sits there long enough for the ridge to break down.

[KatDaddy]

Craziness indeed and Joe B stated yesterday there would be a TS today in the NW Carribean. Lots to discuss

[JonathanBelles]

How close was/is Alma to becoming Arthur?

[Cyclone1]

Whoa whoa whoa!

Arthur?! Just saw this! o_O

That's crazy.

Here's to the second consecutive year with a pre-season storm!

[Derek Ortt]

wasnt really close. Alma dissipated about 24-36 hours before Arthur formed. This was two distinct cyclone that formed within the same monsoon trough

[JonathanBelles]

wasnt really close. Alma dissipated about 24-36 hours before Arthur formed. This was two distinct cyclone that formed within the same monsoon trough

Did they form technically from the same low? or did that completely dissipate in Honduras?

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 311825
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1825 UTC SAT MAY 31 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE ARTHUR (AL012008) 20080531 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080531 1800 080601 0600 080601 1800 080602 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.3N 88.6W 19.3N 90.5W 19.7N 92.6W 19.5N 94.7W
BAMD 18.3N 88.6W 18.6N 89.8W 18.7N 91.3W 18.5N 92.9W
BAMM 18.3N 88.6W 18.7N 90.2W 18.8N 92.0W 18.5N 94.1W
LBAR 18.3N 88.6W 18.9N 89.7W 19.6N 91.2W 20.3N 92.7W
SHIP 35KTS 41KTS 46KTS 51KTS
DSHP 35KTS 29KTS 32KTS 37KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080602 1800 080603 1800 080604 1800 080605 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.8N 96.5W 17.6N 99.6W 17.1N 101.1W 16.6N 102.0W
BAMD 18.1N 94.8W 17.5N 99.1W 17.4N 103.4W 18.1N 107.8W
BAMM 17.9N 96.5W 17.0N 101.2W 17.1N 105.5W 17.6N 109.7W
LBAR 20.8N 94.1W 21.8N 96.9W 22.4N 99.2W 23.1N 101.1W
SHIP 57KTS 64KTS 67KTS 70KTS
DSHP 43KTS 50KTS 33KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.3N LONCUR = 88.6W DIRCUR = 325DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 17.7N LONM12 = 88.1W DIRM12 = 326DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 16.9N LONM24 = 87.2W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 250NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 225NM RD34SE = 100NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[RL3AO]

wasnt really close. Alma dissipated about 24-36 hours before Arthur formed. This was two distinct cyclone that formed within the same monsoon trough

Did they form technically from the same low? or did that completely dissipate in Honduras?

No. It dissipated.

[PTrackerLA]

Thank god climatology is not a factor lol.

[tailgater]

I new that this had to be at least a TD this morning, no weak tropical disturbance like some were calling it produces 10' waves.

I thought last night when you posted that ship reporting 44kt gust and 10 foot waves we might get it named( guess they wanted something a little more reliable).
Also, if it's moving west at 290 he probably won't make the BOC unless there is some reformation.

[Emmett_Brown]

All in all, the GFS did a good job of predicting cyclone formation well in advance. Sure, the details varied, but in the end, something formed in the Carib.

[PTrackerLA]

Yes the GFS honked and honked about a storm in this vicinity and look what happened, gotta give it credit!

[CrazyC83]

This is unreal. It has probably been a tropical storm since this morning with no way of knowing...

[Weatherfreak000]

Agreed. Quite rare for GFS to somewhat nail a solution so early in the season for us to see. As we all note watching which Models are running best each season is a key, perhaps after a last year the GFS is trying to run the show!


As far as Arthur goes....I need to just never sleep. I ALWAYS sleep over storm formations.