Arthur's remnents near the BOC

[JonathanBelles]

Ive been alma'd and arthur'd in one week. Complete surprise here.

[Derek Ortt]

All I can say is I was wrong!

[Aric Dunn]

Madness.

WeatherNLU, are you an NHC insider? If not, how the hell did you get that, or are you just lucky?

If the latter, I suggest you buy a lottery ticket

Another pre-season storm (admittedly by a few hours, but pre-season none-the-less)

either he is and insider or the son or daughter of one of the forecasters..

[Aric Dunn]

All I can say is I was wrong!

you get brownie points from me for that

[pojo]

color me not surprised.... we knew about a possible tasking yesterday (for tomorrow)......

we'll see when we get into the system.

[Extremeweatherguy]

We have Arthur now? I checked this morning and saw 90L was up and it looked to be over land. I am absolutely amazed to come back a couple hours later and find a named storm. I would have never expected this!

[JonathanBelles]

All I can say is I was wrong!

I think we all were, in that none of us thought that we'd have an inland TS.

[Thunder44]

Tentative Recon for sunday at 2 PM EDT.

NOUS42 KNHC 311600 COR
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1200 PM EDT SAT 31 MAY 2008
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 01/1100Z TO 02/1100Z JUNE 2008
TCPOD NUMBER.....08-001

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA --GULF OF MEXICO
A. 01/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 01/1530Z
D. 19.5N AND 92.0W
E. 01/1800Z TO 02/0000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: BEGIN 24HR FIXES AT 02/1800Z
NEAR 19.5N AND 94.5 W IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

3. CORRECTION SENT TO CHANGE WINTER STORM TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
PLAN OF THE DAY.

I posted this before. Except not with the correction below.

[cycloneye]

color me not surprised.... we knew about a possible tasking yesterday (for tomorrow)......

we'll see when we get into the system.

Shannon,from now I say,have a safe mission down there and lets see what you guys find.

[pojo]

color me not surprised.... we knew about a possible tasking yesterday (for tomorrow)......

we'll see when we get into the system.

Shannon,from now I say,have a safe mission down there and lets see what you guys find.

oh you'll see the data as soon as its released from NHC...

[JonathanBelles]

Now I gotta relearn how to read the reports

[pojo]

Now I gotta relearn how to read the reports

they are all very simple to read......

j/k all ARWOs and DROPs forget from time to time... so don't feel bad.

[NDG]

I new that this had to be at least a TD this morning, no weak tropical disturbance like some were calling it produces 10' waves.

[KatDaddy]

WTF? Its on CNN. The LLC was over the Yucatan!

[Brent]

Okay, fair to say that stunned me. I was just looking at the archives of last year.

[KatDaddy]

I guess the hurricane party in the chatroom will be rocking tonight with Arthur a day before the season. Hopefully this is no sign of things to come.

[RL3AO]

This is interesting. We still have three hours until advisory time. Arthur could weaken to a depression by then. Since operational ACE is only calculated on 3/9/15/21z advisories, Arthur final operational ACE could end up being zero.

[AnnularCane]

A party with Arthur as the guest of honor!

OK, let me get this straight. He really became a TS over land? Or was he just discovered to be one? I had assumed he had formed just offshore or something.

[RL3AO]

A party with Arthur as the guest of honor!

OK, let me get this straight. He really became a TS over land? Or was he just discovered to be one? I had assumed he had formed just offshore or something.

Yeah. It formed offshore than immediately made landfall.

[curtadams]

There is obviously a new philosophy about upgrades at the NHC. Retro-upgrading Arthur is a particular shock, but in general Alma and Arthur got upgraded much earlier than they would have been in the past two years. The past two years were mostly "is there ANY excuse not to upgrade" and now it looks like a "best evidence" policy. I like the new philosophy, but it's still going to take some getting used to!