Arthur's remnents near the BOC

[curtadams]

While it merits an invest, development is very unlikely. CMC and UKM keep it over land with a turn to the south. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ GFS and NOGAPS move it out into the BOC but they don't develop it so I assume they predict worsening upper air conditions.

Incidentally, being over water is part of the definition the NHC uses for a tropical cyclone so it won't get upgraded over land, period. They refused to upgrade a short-lived TD in Texas in 2006 IIRC because the LLC was (barely) inland.

[lrak]

Last I checked (two days ago) all the models were saying NE Florida, what happened? Not wishing anything but drought relief for Florida and S. Texas. And it still looks like the center is not as far inland as they have it. IMO it looks like its right over Chetumal?

[cycloneye]

12z GFS at 24 Hours Brushing the coast.

12z GFS at 66 Hours Coast of BOC low gone.A new low shows up just off the Belize coast.

[WeatherNLU]

Deleted

[Chacor]

Tropical Storm Arthur within the hour.

It's not even a TD and it's over land. I've seen no signs of TS force winds. What's your source?

[RL3AO]

Tropical Storm Arthur within the hour.

Um...where? ATCF? NRL?

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Arthur within the hour.

What is your base on that?

[jasons2k]

Tropical Storm Arthur within the hour.

Not according to the NHC 11:30AM Statement. Any development won't be until it emerges into the BOC, if that occurs.

[Chacor]

We've asked you already to post your so-called "observations from in and around the area". There are none that show TS-force winds, and the NHC will not designate an INVEST as a TC while it's over land.

[Aric Dunn]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/danger_atl_latestBW.gif

interesting that cone is fairly far north ..

[jasons2k]

Reminder:

This is the active storms forum. We don't allow chat in this forum. I will delete the chat from this thread. Stick to the storms in this forum and use the PM feature if there is a concern.

Thanks.

[Thunder44]

Looking at visible imagery, it looks like it's looks lost some of its organization again. The LLC seems to be near 19N 89W and moving WNW. While, most of the deep convection appears to be associated with the MLC spinning around the northern coast of Belize.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[Cryomaniac]

This isn't aimed at anyone, since I'm not a mod, but shouldn't nearly all of these posts have disclaimers?

The following is the opinion of Cryomaniac, and is not based on any evidence, meteorological, economic or otherwise, and as such should not be used for any purpose

I think this could develop in the BOC, since it is holding up pretty well over land. It could easily become Arthur, but clearly not yet.

[jaxfladude]

Still waiting for nothing......

[Aric Dunn]

The only thing it has going for it while over land is the fact that the yucatan is much lower elevation than Honduras.

[pojo]

So I wonder now, if they are going to task a recon to go in there on Sunday, assuming it does go back out into the BOC.

as of right now... yes...... there still is plenty of time though.

[Aric Dunn]

Still waiting for nothing......

hardly call it nothing ... lol

[NDG]

Looking at visible imagery, it looks like it's looks lost some of its organization again. The LLC seems to be near 19N 89W and moving WNW. While, most of the deep convection appears to be associated with the MLC spinning around the northern coast of Belize.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

I still see it near 18.2 N & 88.8W, not as much separation

[WeatherNLU]

Deleted.

[jaxfladude]

Still waiting for nothing......

hardly call it nothing ... lol

I need some heavy tropical precipitation soon or else parts of NE Florida(well alot of the US mainland) may be burning again this year....send some of that heavy tropical precipitation my way please....