Arthur's remnents near the BOC

[HURAKAN]

Gone from NRL.

[drezee]

31/1145 UTC 17.7N 88.4W OVERLAND 90L -- Atlantic Ocean

I beleive they have the Lat/Long wrong...Chetumal has a lower pressure and calm winds...

[Stormavoider]

Looking at this visible loop, the center is well over land.

I can't tell with only two daylight visible shots available. LOL

11:31 11:45 12:15 UTC

[Chacor]

Gone from NRL.

I don't see a 12z update on ATCF so it's possible that they've decided to drop the system for development in the Carib. Time to move on and wait for this to re-emerge over water before it even has a chance of doing anything.

[wxman57]

Yep, south winds all along the coast of Belize and inland. Whatever LLC there was is inland. I wouldn't expect a TD upgrade for such a weak, disorganized system that's already inland. Note that the tropical models haven't been run since 00Z. We'll have to see if that convection makes its way into the BoC by tomorrow. That'll be its only shot.

Here's a 12Z sfc analysis with visible imagery. The position estimate above looks good. It's inland:

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 311235
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1235 UTC SAT MAY 31 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902008) 20080531 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080531 1200 080601 0000 080601 1200 080602 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.5N 88.7W 19.3N 90.4W 19.6N 92.1W 19.4N 93.9W
BAMD 18.5N 88.7W 18.8N 89.9W 18.8N 91.2W 18.7N 92.7W
BAMM 18.5N 88.7W 19.0N 90.1W 18.9N 91.6W 18.7N 93.4W
LBAR 18.5N 88.7W 19.3N 89.9W 20.2N 91.3W 20.8N 92.7W
SHIP 30KTS 35KTS 40KTS 47KTS
DSHP 30KTS 28KTS 32KTS 40KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080602 1200 080603 1200 080604 1200 080605 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.8N 95.6W 17.3N 98.4W 16.8N 99.8W 16.5N 100.5W
BAMD 18.3N 94.4W 17.6N 98.3W 17.6N 102.1W 18.3N 105.6W
BAMM 18.1N 95.3W 17.1N 99.6W 17.0N 103.0W 17.4N 106.1W
LBAR 21.3N 94.1W 22.2N 96.9W 23.1N 99.3W 24.6N 100.7W
SHIP 54KTS 59KTS 58KTS 56KTS
DSHP 35KTS 28KTS 28KTS 26KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.5N LONCUR = 88.7W DIRCUR = 320DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 16.9N LONM12 = 87.5W DIRM12 = 313DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 16.9N LONM24 = 86.9W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 250NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$






Its moving at 320 degrees at 7kts.

[NDG]

31/1145 UTC 17.7N 88.4W OVERLAND 90L -- Atlantic Ocean

Like I said, it was going to be a close call, a few more hours near the coast and we would have had officialy a TD later on this morning.

[Chacor]

ATCF has updated, we should see 90L back on NRL soon.

AL, 90, 2008053112, , BEST, 0, 185N, 887W, 30, 1005, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 250, 75, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

[Stormavoider]

Looking at this visible loop, the center is well over land.

At 1221 UTC, when you made this post, there were no visble pictures available of the center. Not until the 1215 UTC came out at 1225 and that was only one frame...

Check your monitor brightness and contrast settings.

[Thunder44]

They have initialized the center well inland. Probably no upgrade today.

[cycloneye]

Is back at NRL.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

[wyq614]

Where can I see ATCF?

[Chacor]

Where can I see ATCF?

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/

[HURAKAN]

[Chacor]

Oh, and for what it's worth — TAFB analysed T2.0/2.0 at 0845 UTC, but at 1215Z also analyses the centre over land.

[Chacor]

That's over two hours old, NRL imagery doesn't appear to be updating right now.

[Thunder44]

I do beleive the center is near Chetumal. The naval base to the SW of the city is reporting NW winds. That means it is likely heading N of W meaning it should come out near Campeche instead of Sabancuy. This is night and day. If it comes out near Campeche, then you will have a named system on your hands likely.. .

The NHC initialized movement at 320 degrees at 7kts, which is NW at 8mph. On it's present course it would be re-emerge into the BOC on tomorrow morning.

[bvigal]

ATCF has updated, we should see 90L back on NRL soon.

AL, 90, 2008053112, , BEST, 0, 185N, 887W, 30, 1005, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 250, 75, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

Thanks for posting this, Chacor. Used to confuse me too, when systems would 'disappear' off NRL site. So I called and asked. The whole process is automated (and on other sites, too). If after a certain number of hours a new file doesn't appear on a server in Washington, usually model text, an automated script drops the system. TAFB must post that file. In this case, the 6z model run was skipped, so the system was (temporarily) dropped from NRL, and reappeared when 12z model file posted.

[wxman57]

I do beleive the center is near Chetumal. The naval base to the SW of the city is reporting NW winds. That means it is likely heading N of W meaning it should come out near Campeche instead of Sabancuy. This is night and day. If it comes out near Campeche, then you will have a named system on your hands likely.. .

The NHC initialized movement at 320 degrees at 7kts, which is NW at 8mph. On it's present course it would be re-emerge into the BOC on tomorrow morning.

Remember, there's a building ridge over northern Mexico, Texas, and the western Gulf today and tomorrow. That'll produce increasing mid-level NE winds across the BoC. Building ridge to the north means a westerly track and/or south of west by Sunday. Probably staying inland over Mexico or brushing the southern BoC coast. But it'll be inland another 24 hours, at least.

[HURAKAN]

24 hrs over the BOC with favorable atmospheric conditions will be more than enough for a TD or weak TS to form. We have seen this happen a few times over the past few years. Moreover, this system has shown that it can get back together pretty quick.