Severe weather outbreak - May 29-31

[Tampa_God]

I'm watching that cell near Hill City, Kansas,. That thing is nasty it looks like.

[CrazyC83]

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
852 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

KSC089-123-300230-
/O.CON.KGID.TO.W.0037.000000T0000Z-080530T0230Z/
JEWELL KS-MITCHELL KS-
852 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM CDT FOR NORTHERN
MITCHELL AND SOUTHEASTERN JEWELL COUNTIES...

AT 848 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AND STORM
SPOTTERS WERE TRACKING A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO. THIS
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR GLEN ELDER...OR 9 MILES WEST OF BELOIT...
MOVING EAST AT 34 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
BELOIT BY 905 PM CDT
ASHERVILLE BY 910 PM CDT
SIMPSON BY 915 PM CDT
SCOTTSVILLE BY 920 PM CDT

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
STURDY SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST
DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

LAT...LON 3930 9847 3953 9848 3965 9793 3936 9792
TIME...MOT...LOC 0152Z 250DEG 30KT 3949 9824

$$

[CrazyC83]

Based on current trends, it seems the high risk might verify, but not in the place they put it (it should have been farther south and west).

[CrazyC83]

The Beloit tornado TURNED - will miss the turn to the northwest...

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
903 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

KSC089-300230-
/O.CON.KGID.TO.W.0038.000000T0000Z-080530T0230Z/
JEWELL KS-
903 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN JEWELL COUNTY...

AT 902 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AND STORM
SPOTTERS WERE TRACKING A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO. THIS
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF JEWELL...OR 10 MILES
NORTHWEST OF BELOIT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
JEWELL BY 915 PM CDT
RANDALL BY 920 PM CDT
FORMOSO BY 930 PM CDT

DO NOT USE YOUR CAR TO TRY TO OUTRUN A TORNADO. CARS ARE EASILY
TOSSED AROUND BY TORNADO WINDS. IF YOU ARE CAUGHT IN THE PATH OF A
TORNADO...LEAVE THE CAR AND GO TO A STRONG BUILDING. IF NO SAFE
STRUCTURE IS NEARBY...SEEK SHELTER IN A DITCH OR LOW SPOT AND COVER
YOUR HEAD.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

LAT...LON 3965 9793 3956 9835 3956 9840 3963 9839
3985 9792 3984 9792
TIME...MOT...LOC 0203Z 224DEG 26KT 3959 9821

$$

[btangy]

Looks like the big supercell near Jewell, KS may have multiple tornadoes with it. I see two distinct areas of strong rotation. Belleville, KS needs to watch out!

[CrazyC83]

NEC081-300500-

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
CIVIL EMERGENCY MESSAGE
HAMILTON COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
910 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE
HAMILTON COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

THERE HAVE BEEN NUMEROUS POWER LINES DOWNED BY TONIGHTS STORMS
ACROSS HAMILTON COUNTY. THE EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY IS REQUESTING
THAT THOSE IN THE COUNTY TRY TO REMAIN AT HOME IF AT ALL
POSSIBLE. ANY UNNECESSARY TRAVEL IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED TONIGHT.

$$

KISNER

[CrazyC83]

The Jewell County tornado is still very large and dangerous.

[btangy]

Look at this amazing sounding from Omaha, NE. That's off the charts! Even if it's a couple hours old, this type of environment will continue to produce very large, long tracking tornadoes well after dusk.

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1088
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0919 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KS AND SERN CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 300219Z - 300315Z

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL KS
INTO FAR SERN CO BEYOND THE 02Z EXPIRATION TIME FOR WW 385. GIVEN
RECENT RADAR TRENDS SHOWING INCREASED STORM INTENSITIES ALONG A LINE
FROM SWRN LOGAN/NWRN WICHITA COUNTIES KS TO ERN KIOWA/NRN PROWERS
COUNTIES CO...NRN PARTS OF WW 385 HAVE BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 05Z.

SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED TSTMS BACKBUILDING SWWD ALONG A
BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDED FROM NORTH CENTRAL KS TO SERN CO. AIR MASS
ALONG AND S OF THIS BOUNDARY IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR VALUES EXCEEDING 50 KT...AND THUS FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS. SLY LLJ EXTENDING INTO SWRN KS IS MAINTAINING A FEED OF
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY INTO THIS REGION...AND SUGGESTS THAT THIS
BACKBUILDING TREND COULD PERSIST BEYOND THE LOCAL EXTENSION OF WW
385 BY THE AREA WEATHER FORECAST OFFICES. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED AND NEW MODEL DATA ANALYZED FOR POTENTIAL NEW WW ISSUANCE
TOWARD 04-05Z.

..PETERS.. 05/30/2008


ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...

38160285 39230176 39560137 39600069 39100068 38750080
38670023 38370027 37140005 36990288

[CrazyC83]

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
926 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

IAC027-300245-
/O.CON.KDMX.TO.W.0025.000000T0000Z-080530T0245Z/
CARROLL IA-
926 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN CARROLL COUNTY...

AT 922 PM CDT...A TORNADO WAS REPORTED. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED
NEAR COON RAPIDS...OR 48 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FORT DODGE...MOVING EAST
AT 48 MPH.

SEEK SHELTER IN A BASEMENT...OR IN AN INTERIOR ROOM. STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE IN A CAR OR OUTSIDE...SEEK SHELTER IN A
REINFORCED BUILDING.

IN ADDITION...THIS STORM WILL LIKELY PRODUCE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS
OVER 70 MPH.

LAT...LON 4198 9480 4202 9464 4200 9464 4199 9464
4186 9464 4186 9478
TIME...MOT...LOC 0226Z 265DEG 42KT 4193 9463

$$

COGIL

[Ed Mahmoud]

Based on current trends, it seems the high risk might verify, but not in the place they put it (it should have been farther south and west).

It appeared that way based on the 12Z WRF and GFS, and SPC did move the High Risk area a bit further West.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Looks like the big supercell near Jewell, KS may have multiple tornadoes with it. I see two distinct areas of strong rotation. Belleville, KS needs to watch out!

Dr. Forbes on TWC was just showing that. That cell is producing a tornado family, and the old tornado hooks North and weakens as a new one develops on the Southern side of the cell.



I've seen pictures of damage path maps done by Fujita, and in tornado families it seems common for cells to bend North as they die, with a new tornado developing along the same line the old one travelled.

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1089
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0938 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL/ERN NEB AND NRN KS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 386...

VALID 300238Z - 300315Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 386 CONTINUES.

NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED TO REPLACE SRN PART OF WW 386 WHICH IS
SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 03Z. ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR A TORNADO THREAT TO PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
ACROSS NRN KS AND SRN NEB.

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY CONTINUE ACROSS NRN PARTS OF
386 BEYOND THE SCHEDULED EXPIRATION TIME OF 03Z...BUT GREATER
ORGANIZED POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED FARTHER S.

..PETERS.. 05/30/2008


ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...

38680082 39660072 41009961 42059916 42859827 42779703
42199684 41289729 39929735 38979741 38509802

[CrazyC83]

SEL0

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 390
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
945 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EXTREME SOUTHEAST COLORADO
WESTERN KANSAS

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FROM 945 PM
UNTIL 300 AM CDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 40
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 90 MILES WEST
SOUTHWEST OF GARDEN CITY KANSAS TO 30 MILES SOUTH OF HILL CITY
KANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 386...WW 387...WW
388...WW 389...

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM AND TRAIN ALONG
A STALLED BOUNDARY IN WRN KS. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SUBSTANTIAL
DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING GUSTS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26035.


...THOMPSON

[CrazyC83]

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
944 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

KSC157-300300-
/O.CON.KTOP.TO.W.0007.000000T0000Z-080530T0300Z/
REPUBLIC-
944 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR NORTHERN
REPUBLIC COUNTY...

AT 943 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AND STORM
SPOTTERS WERE TRACKING A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO. THIS
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 1 MILE EAST OF COURTLAND...OR 19 MILES
NORTHWEST OF CONCORDIA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 37 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SCANDIA AND REPUBLIC.

IF A TORNADO APPROACHES...GO TO A BASEMENT OR SEEK SHELTER IN A
HALLWAY OR CLOSET ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING. USE BLANKETS
OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR HEAD AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

FOR YOUR SAFETY...GO TO A STORM SHELTER OR BASEMENT NOW! TORNADOES
MAY HAVE WINDS GREATER THAN 100 MPH. AVOID OVERPASSES AND WINDOWS...
AND COVER YOUR HEAD.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE
LATEST SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION.

LAT...LON 4000 9748 3986 9746 3974 9792 3978 9792
3978 9793 3979 9792 3980 9793 3980 9792
3990 9793 4000 9770
TIME...MOT...LOC 0244Z 222DEG 32KT 3982 9782

$$

[Bunkertor]

517 Tornados ( pre. ) now for may. With the MDT-risk day tomorrow a new record will be set.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Looks like the big supercell near Jewell, KS may have multiple tornadoes with it. I see two distinct areas of strong rotation. Belleville, KS needs to watch out!

Dr. Forbes on TWC was just showing that. That cell is producing a tornado family, and the old tornado hooks North and weakens as a new one develops on the Southern side of the cell.



I've seen pictures of damage path maps done by Fujita, and in tornado families it seems common for cells to bend North as they die, with a new tornado developing along the same line the old one travelled.

Can't find images of 1957 Fargo tornado family damage paths. It showed this quite well. My Google-Fu is weak.

[Bunkertor]

http://www.wdr.de/themen/global/webcams/domcam.jhtml

MCS approaching cologne

[CrazyC83]

SEL1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 391
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1000 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FROM 1000 PM
UNTIL 300 AM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 35 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
CONCORDIA KANSAS TO 110 MILES WEST OF CONCORDIA KANSAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 386. WATCH NUMBER 386 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER
1000 PM CDT. CONTINUE...WW 387...WW 388...WW 389...WW 390...

DISCUSSION...TRAINING SEVERE STORMS WILL PERSIST ALONG A SLOW-MOVING
BOUNDARY ACROSS NRN KS/SRN NEB AS RICH MOISTURE FLOWS NWD ON A
STRONG LLJ. THOUGH CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL INCREASE GRADUALLY AS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG VERTICAL
SHEAR SHOULD STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WITH
EMBEDDED SUPERCELL/BOW STRUCTURES. OTHERWISE...DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE MORE INTENSE STORMS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26035.


...THOMPSON

[CrazyC83]

0212 JEWELL JEWELL KS 3967 9815 MAJOR DAMAGE ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE CITY OF JEWELL. POWER OUT WITH EMERGENCY PERSONNEL IN ROUTE (GID)

0225 JEWELL JEWELL KS 3967 9815 POWER IS OUT ACROSS TOWN...POWER POLES AND LINES DOWN EVERYWHERE. TREE LIMBS 12 INCHES IN DIAMETER REPORTED DOWN. EXTENSIVE DAMAGE REPORTED. (GID)