Severe weather outbreak - May 29-31

[KWT]

Well that is really interesting and impressive, for it to upgraded to high this early must mean they are fairly confident of a severe outbreak.

[snoopj]

I think that it looks like all the major factors are there and there's not much to keep it from not happening. *shrug*

--j

[CrazyC83]

Here we go again! May is surely going to end the way it began...

I do expect tomorrow to be upgraded to moderate risk as well...

[KWT]

I think its going to be a very busy day on this thread if the high even comes close to actually occuring.

[CrazyC83]

I think the threat may expand eastward - I sense something like May 30-31, 1998...there may be a super-derecho tonight...

[KWT]

There was a mention in one of the watches of possibly a strong Drecho setting up but I can't remember what it was.

Should be noted we have several severe thunderstorm warnings already out:

000
WUUS53 KDMX 291444
SVRDMX
IAC069-079-083-091-187-197-291530-
/O.NEW.KDMX.SV.W.0094.080529T1444Z-080529T1530Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
944 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DES MOINES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN HAMILTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL IOWA...
NORTHWESTERN HARDIN COUNTY IN CENTRAL IOWA...
NORTHEASTERN WEBSTER COUNTY IN CENTRAL IOWA...
SOUTHWESTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL IOWA...
SOUTHEASTERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL IOWA...
SOUTHERN WRIGHT COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL IOWA...

* UNTIL 1030 AM CDT.

* AT 940 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WOOLSTOCK...OR 15
MILES EAST OF FORT DODGE...AND MOVING EAST AT 47 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
WOOLSTOCK AND WEBSTER CITY BY 945 AM CDT...
GALT BY 1000 AM CDT...
DOWS BY 1005 AM CDT...
POPEJOY BY 1010 AM CDT...
COULTER BY 1015 AM CDT...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 146 AND 169.

MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF YOU LIVE IN A
MOBILE HOME...SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY BUILDING.

LAT...LON 4282 9339 4255 9311 4242 9397 4276 9409
TIME...MOT...LOC 1444Z 258DEG 41KT 4257 9383

$$

BOKSA

[CrazyC83]

Those warnings are from the warm front.

[senorpepr]

ZCZC SPCPWOSPC ALL
WOUS40 KWNS 291438
IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-292245-

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0938 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

WESTERN IOWA
EASTERN HALF OF NEBRASKA
FAR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA

ELSEWHERE...ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE SURROUNDING
THE HIGH RISK FROM WESTERN KANSAS TO SOUTHERN WI.

VERY WARM...MOIST AND BUOYANT AIRMASS IS SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE PLAINS THIS MORNING. THIS NORTHWARD SURGE IN INSTABILITY WILL
CREATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ORGANIZED...POTENTIALLY
DAMAGING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY REGION.

MID-HIGH LEVEL JET STREAM WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...ENHANCING THE
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE QUITE
FAVORABLE FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA. IN ADDITION...VERY
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS COULD ALSO ACCOMPANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS ACTIVITY SPREADS TOWARD
SRN WI.

THIS IS POTENTIALLY A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. THOSE IN THE
THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND
TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR
POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.

..DARROW.. 05/29/2008

$$

[CrazyC83]

NWS Omaha is having a conference call at 1 pm CDT.

[KWT]

Interesting is there any links that will be streaming it acorss the web?

[RL3AO]

Wow. I didn't see this coming. But I was focusing on the tropics the past few days.

[Ed Mahmoud]

12Z WRF precip fields, CAPE and helicity seem to favor North Central Kansas and South Central Nebraska, just to the West of the HIGH RISK, for the strongest storms.

The WRF suggests the warm front is well North of Kearney by then, not quite sure what the shallow inversion is unless it is some kind of mesoscale boundary. But that is a sick looking sounding.



Concordia across in Kansas doesn't look like a happy place this evening either...

[Ed Mahmoud]

GFS is slightly further North into Nebraska with core of scariest looking weather, but I do expect the 11:30 CDT SWODY1 to expand the HIGH RISK further West into Central Nebraska.

Grand Island GFS forecast 7 pm point sounding ...

[CrazyC83]

SPC AC 291601

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1101 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

VALID 291630Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL NEB EWD INTO WRN
IA AND FAR SERN SD......

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN
KS...WCENTRAL NEB...CENTRAL IA...SOUTHEAST SD... AND SOUTHWEST
MN......

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM FAR NERN NM/TX PANHANDLE
TO SOUTHERN WI......

...OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES EXPECTED A LARGE
PORTION OF ERN NE...NRN KS EWD ACROSS IA AND FAR SERN SD...

GIVEN THE EXPECTED STRONG THERMODYNAMICS SETTING UP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AT THE CURRENT TIME...THE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH AND WIND
MAX CURRENTLY CROSSING CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL BE PROVIDING NOT ONLY
THE FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR BUT LARGE SCALE ASCENT TO SUPPORT
TORNADIC SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASING RAPIDLY NWD THRU THE
PLAINS INTO NEB TO THE E OF A DEVELOPING LOW AND DRY LINE. BY MID
AFTERNOON SURFACE LOW WILL BE SWRN NEB WITH DRY LINE EXTENDING SSWWD
TO VICINITY ERN NM/TX BORDER.

WITH MLCAPES RISING TO AOA 2500 J/KG AND STRONG VEERING SHEAR
PROFILES WITH LARGE HODOGRAPHS...SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL FIRST
DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON IN AREA OF WEAKEST CINH OVER CENTRAL NEB
INTO NWRN KS AHEAD OF DRY LINE WHERE STRONGEST HEATING IS TAKING
PLACE.

SUPERCELLS WILL THEN CONTINUE DEVELOPING PROGRESSIVELY EWD VICINITY
AND S OF E/W FRONTAL ZONE THAT WILL EXTEND ACROSS NRN NEB INTO IA.
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR COUPLED WITH LOW LCLS SUPPORTS LONG LIVED
TORNADIC SUPERCELLS INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOS.

IN ADDITION TO TORNADOS VERY LARGE HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY ANY SUPERCELL
AND AS STORMS DEVELOP UPSCALE BY THIS EVENING A MORE ORGANIZED
DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL EVOLVE FROM ERN NEB INTO IA.

FURTHER S INTO NRN KS...WHILE STORMS MAY BE SOMEWHAT MORE SCATTERED
DUE TO WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES THERE WILL STILL BE A POTENTIAL
FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE BOTH TORNADOS AND LARGE HAIL AS MLCAPES WILL
BE ABOVE 3000 J/KG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN THE 5OKT RANGE.

HAVE EXTENDED THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FURTHER S ALONG TX/NM BORDER
AS NOW APPEARS THAT DRY LINE WILL MIX NO FURTHER E THAN THE BORDER
BY THIS EVENING. STORMS EXPECTED TO BE HIGH BASED HOWEVER SUFFICIENT
SHEAR/INSTABILITY FOR SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS.

..HALES/DARROW.. 05/29/2008

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1608Z (12:08PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[Ed Mahmoud]

OK, good, HIGH RISK is extended further West in Central Nebreaska

[Bunkertor]

Interesting is there any links that will be streaming it acorss the web?

Don´t know if they will air it live but you can listen to it later on.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Western Kansas and Nebraska clearing out nicely. Dewpoints in the 60s in McCook, for example. Winds have gone West in Goodland, KS and Imperial, NE, although dewpoints haven't really dropped there yet.

But there should be strong late May insolation in Central Kansas and Nebraska ahead of the dryline.

[Bunkertor]

We have a supercell developement here in germany - and the storm machine refuses to print soundings for germany. Can anyone suggest an alternative ?

[senorpepr]

We have a supercell developement here in germany - and the storm machine refuses to print soundings for germany. Can anyone suggest an alternative ?

Are you looking for observed or forecast soundings?

[Ed Mahmoud]

We have a supercell developement here in germany - and the storm machine refuses to print soundings for germany. Can anyone suggest an alternative ?

Are you looking for observed or forecast soundings?

Bellevue, NE? Where is that. And do you have a second older car you can take out for a drive with a digital camera/video camera this afternoon while the nicer, primary car stays safe in the garage?



AccuWx, I think, has GFS forecast soundings for anywhere in the world, entered as latitude and longitude, but it isn't free. Pretty sure the North American Mesoscale does a poor job generating soundings for Deutschland.