EPAC: Tropical Depression Alma (01E)

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

28/2345 UTC 10.3N 86.5W T2.0/2.0 90E

[Chacor]

That's 2345Z, before it was upgraded.

[KWT]

Not really all that surprising that its got upgraded overnight given the wording from the discusssion on it before it was upgraded.

Anyway looks pretty decent at the moment with some strong convection on the that western side. Flooding is going to be a major concern with this one more so then the winds.
I think its got every chance of becoming tropical storm Alma in the next 12hrs IMO, just waiting for the proof of that.

PS, is this the most easterly forming storm ever in the EPAC?

[Thunder44]

000
WTPZ31 KNHC 290834
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012008
200 AM PDT THU MAY 29 2008

...DEPRESSION NEARING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE COAST OF EL SALVADOR...

AT 2 AM PDT...0900 UTC....THE GOVERNMENT OF EL SALVADOR HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF EL SALVADOR. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST
OF COSTA RICA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
PACIFIC COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 AM PDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.8 WEST OR ABOUT 90
MILES...145 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANAGUA NICARAGUA AND ABOUT 145
MILES...235 KM...NORTHWEST OF CABO BLANCO COSTA RICA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH...8 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO THE
COASTS OF NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...AND EL SALVADOR DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...
55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST WHILE THE
CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION REMAINS OVER WATER...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
10 TO 15 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM COSTA RICA
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...EL
SALVADOR...AND GUATEMALA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF
20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE RAINS MAY
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 200 AM PDT POSITION...10.9 N...86.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800
AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Chacor]

WTPZ41 KNHC 290851
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012008
200 AM PDT THU MAY 29 2008

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E IS GRADUALLY
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH INCREASED CONVECTIVE BANDING NEAR
THE CENTER AND A VIGOROUS BAND WEST OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION.
ASCAT DATA SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS OF 30 KT NEAR 03Z...AND THE
POSSIBLE FORMATION OF AN INNER WIND CORE. BASED MAINLY ON THE
ASCAT DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 30 KT...WHICH IS
SLIGHTLY BELOW THE 35 KT ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.

THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO BE MOVING SLIGHTLY FASTER TOWARD THE
NORTH...350/4. THE SYSTEM REMAINS LOCATED WITHIN A BROAD CYCLONIC
GYRE IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS...WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH
OF THE DEPRESSION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS
FORECAST THIS GENERAL PATTERN TO PERSIST FOR 36-48 HR. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THIS PATTERN BY FORECAST AN INITIAL NORTHWARD
MOTION THAT BECOMES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD IN 12-24 HR AND MORE
WESTWARD THEREAFTER. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED TO THE LEFT
OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED MAINLY ON THE INITIAL POSITION AND
MOTION...AND IT IS A BIT FASTER THEN THE PREVIOUS TRACK. THE NEW
FORECAST CALLS FOR THE CENTER TO MAKE LANDFALL IN WESTERN NICARAGUA
IN 18-24 HR IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GUNA CONSENSUS MODEL. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT BECAUSE OF THE ORIENTATION OF THE COASTLINE
RELATIVE TO THE FORECAST TRACK...EVEN MODEST TRACK ERRORS COULD
RESULT IN LARGE ERRORS IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF LANDFALL.

ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...WITH THE
ONLY OBVIOUS NEGATIVE FACTOR BEING LAND INTERACTION. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING UNTIL LANDFALL...FOLLOWED
BY WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AMERICA.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE CYCLONE COULD GET STRONGER THAN FORECAST IF
IT REMAINS OVER WATER LONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. HOWEVER...
UNLESS THE SYSTEM GETS SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN FORECAST...THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES ASSOCIATED WITH HEAVY RAINS...WHICH COULD
REACH 20 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AMERICA...
ESPECIALLY IN COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/0900Z 10.9N 86.8W 30 KT
12HR VT 29/1800Z 11.8N 87.0W 35 KT
24HR VT 30/0600Z 13.3N 87.5W 35 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 30/1800Z 14.9N 88.3W 20 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING
48HR VT 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[physicx07]

The new weird green Shortwave IR is starting to show it's worth. On the standard IR with the rainbow palette the system looks like a blob. But just now on the Shortwave IR from NHC floater, I can definitely see more structure as though it were a VIS shot. In fact, after reviewing the loop, it looks like the center of circulation is reforming, or consolidating farther south than the last advisory, like near 9.7N, 86.3W.

*Edit* Ooops, there seemed to be something wrong with where it put that lat/lon lines. The lines just jumped and yeah, it's north of 10N.

[HURAKAN]

[KWT]

Possibly, I'm not sure it is reforming but it does look like its taken a slight jog east and has slowed down again in terms of foward speed. Also yeah you can really see the structure well I think its a good change.
Indeed IMO this is looking more and more like a tropical storm now, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see it upgraded soon to tropical storm Alma.

[Thundercloud]

does it have an eye

[liveweatherman]

Forecast Model



Get the Latest Forecast Model Here: Tropical Depression One-E (Active)


Tropical Forecast #1

WTPZ21 KNHC 290249
TCMEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012008
0300 UTC THU MAY 29 2008

AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF COSTA RICA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA RICA. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
PACIFIC COAST OF NICARAGUA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 86.5W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 86.5W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 86.5W

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 10.8N 86.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 12.0N 86.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 90SE 90SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 13.7N 87.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

[KWT]

Looks like the NHC is closest to the UKMO which whilst way over did the strength of this system probably did the best in forecasting its development.

Interesting to see the latest GFDL have the depression stay oversea but I suspect that won't be the case.

[Thundercloud]

I am thinking that TD1 is undergoing rapid intensification right now

[physicx07]

There appear to be some incredibly cold cloud tops that just popped up SW of the apparent circulation center. I can't find a colorbar that explicitly says what color/intensity corresponds to what temp., but I'm guessing they are at least less than -70C. That's some deep convection.

[Thundercloud]

the black that is on the sat is equivalent to -80 degrees

[Thunder44]

does it have an eye

It does look like it's trying to form one satellite imagery very close to where the center should be. I wouldn't be suprised if became a strong TS or minimal hurricane before making landfall. The upper-level enviorment has improved since yesterday. The trough that was impeding it's development has moved further east. The storm is getting some decent outflow from almost all directions now.

[physicx07]

the black that is on the sat is equivalent to -80 degrees

Wow, that's about as cold as they can get.

[Thundercloud]

I have seen -120 in the most intense hurricane I believe Ioke got to -105 during its trek

[Thunder44]

By the way "Noname" has been taken off NRL. It's just 90E.Invest now. Maybe an upgrade is coming soon.

[Thundercloud]

I think it will be a 45 knt wind storm

[WmE]

I have seen -120 in the most intense hurricane I believe Ioke got to -105 during its trek

I remember the CPHC stating that Ioke had cloud tops of about -90 C°.