Memorial Day Weekend Outbreak 2008

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senorpepr
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Re:

#1001 Postby senorpepr » Sun May 25, 2008 8:18 pm

senorpepr wrote:Gust front just came through here. We lost power for a little bit. Had 1/2" hail and a peak wind of 45 mph here at the house.


Image
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#1002 Postby Bunkertor » Sun May 25, 2008 8:18 pm

SWOODY 1 25 min delayed...hm
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Re: Tornado outbreak again today?

#1003 Postby btangy » Sun May 25, 2008 8:20 pm

The National Weather Service in the Quad Cities has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
north central Jackson County in east central Iowa...
central Dubuque County in northeast Iowa...
northwestern Jo Daviess County in northwest Illinois...

* until 915 PM CDT.

* At 812 PM CDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a
tornado near Centralia
... or 7 miles southwest of Dubuque... moving
east at 29 mph.

* The tornado will be near...
Asbury around 820 PM CDT...
Dubuque around 825 PM CDT...
East Dubuque around 830 PM CDT...
Menominee and 7 miles north of St. Donatus around 840 PM CDT...
Galena around 850 PM CDT...
Council Hill around 900 PM CDT...
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Re: Tornado outbreak again today?

#1004 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun May 25, 2008 8:26 pm

SPC AC 260116

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0816 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

VALID 260100Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF WI...FAR SERN
MN...NWRN IL AND ERN IA...

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF KS INTO SERN
NEB/FAR SWRN IA AND NWRN MO...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS EXTENDED FROM THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS NEWD TO THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION...

...AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AFTER DARK
ACROSS MUCH OF WI INTO ERN IA...AND OVER CENTRAL KS TO NW MO...


...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NRN ND PER WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...WILL SHIFT EWD TONIGHT PHASING WITH SRN EXTENT OF ERN
CANADA TROUGH. COMPLEX SURFACE PATTERN SHOWED ONE LOW OVER FAR NRN
MN WITH A SECONDARY LOW OVER EAST CENTRAL MN /SE OF MSP/. A COLD
FRONT TRAILED SWD CONNECTING THE TWO MN LOWS AND THEN EXTENDED INTO
CENTRAL IA...AND SWWD THROUGH SERN NEB...WRN KS TO ANOTHER LOW IN
SERN CO. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ESEWD OVERNIGHT REACHING
ERN U.P. OF MI TO ERN WI INTO ERN/SERN IA.

A DRY LINE INTERSECTING COLD FRONT IN WRN KS EXTENDED SSWWD THROUGH
THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. ATTENDANT WARM FRONT TO MSP SURFACE LOW
EXTENDED SEWD ACROSS WI...WITH A SECOND BOUNDARY EXTENDING SSEWD
THROUGH ERN IA/ERN MO TO WRN KY/NRN TN. WI WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD
NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT.

...UPPER MS VALLEY EWD TO MI...
STRONG BAND OF WSWLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACCOMPANYING THE ND UPPER
TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS MN INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
MAINTAINING STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ADDITIONAL ORGANIZED
STORMS/SUPERCELLS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. INSTABILITY MAY
DECREASE SOMEWHAT WITH LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING. HOWEVER...
LOWERING LCLS WITHIN A MOIST WARM SECTOR SPREADING NEWD ACROSS WI/
ERN IA/NRN IL AND STRENGTHENING SWLY LLJ TO 40+ KT INCREASING
HODOGRAPH CURVATURE WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED THREAT FOR TORNADOES...
SOME STRONG AS ACTIVITY SPREADS EWD THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.


...SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO LOWER MO VALLEY...
SRN EXTENT OF COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM SWRN IA TO WRN KS WILL MOVE
SLIGHTLY SEWD THIS FORECAST PERIOD...BUT SHOULD BECOME STATIONARY
GIVEN THAT IT WILL BE PARALLEL TO FLOW ALOFT. STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR WILL BE MAINTAINED FROM THE TX PANHANDLE INTO KS TO SRN IA/NRN
MO THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS SLY LLJ EXTENDING NWD THROUGH SRN PLAINS
TO KS STRENGTHENS TO 50+ KT BENEATH 40 KT OF SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW.
THE LLJ WILL MAINTAIN INFLUX OF A VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS BENEATH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES INTO ONGOING TSTMS
EXTENDING FROM SERN NEB INTO CENTRAL KS. MODELS SUGGEST THIS
CLUSTER AND A SECOND CLUSTER LOCATED FARTHER SWWD OVER THE TX
PANHANDLE SHOULD CONTINUE TO GROW UPSCALE INTO MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEXES. TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO TX PANHANDLE AS LOWER LCLS AND VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH
HEIGHT SUPPORT THIS THREAT. THESE SYSTEMS WILL EVENTUALLY AFFECT
THE LOWER MO VALLEY AND PARTS OF NRN OK/SRN KS TONIGHT WITH AN
ATTENDANT THREAT FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

FARTHER S...STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS EXTENDING SWD INTO SW TX SHOULD
PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF BOUNDARY LAYER
STABILIZATION.

...OZARKS/MID MS VALLEY/LOWER OH AND TN VALLEYS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AN MCV MOVING SLOWLY EWD ACROSS SRN MO
AND SHOULD REACH THE LOWER OH VALLEY BY 12Z MONDAY. REGIONAL RADARS
SHOWED A CLUSTER OF TSTMS ARCING SSWWD FROM THE MCV INTO NRN/NWRN
AR...WHILE ADDITIONAL TSTMS WERE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ALONG A
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NERN MO INTO FAR SRN IL TO KY/NRN TN.
ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THE MCV IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT NEW TSTM
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN EWD MOVING CLUSTER...AND WILL ALSO SUPPORT NEW
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED NW-SE ORIENTED SURFACE
BOUNDARY. SLIGHTLY STRONGER FLOW ACCOMPANYING THE MCV SHOULD
MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR /30-35 KT/ FOR ADDITIONAL
ORGANIZED STORMS THROUGH THE EVENING...GIVEN MODERATE-VERY STRONG
INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 1500-3500 J/KG/. LATER THIS EVENING...OVERALL
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AS INSTABILITY DECREASES WITH
THE LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING.

..PETERS.. 05/26/2008

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 0124Z (9:24PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
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Re: Tornado outbreak again today?

#1005 Postby wbug1 » Sun May 25, 2008 8:26 pm

That would bring it near Dubuque airport.
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Re: Tornado outbreak again today?

#1006 Postby awilson » Sun May 25, 2008 8:27 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Even if it's a f5, it won't be, unless it hits a hosipital or a soild building made of something strong. I wish there was a way to use radar to tell the wind speed of a tornado; maybe some day in the future.

What is the test to determine what it will be rated as, then? And what qualifies as a "solid building"? The high school was pretty well done in (superintendent has declared it will not be used again; the second floor is gone but the foundation and part of the first floor remain), for example.
Last edited by awilson on Sun May 25, 2008 8:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Still 15 % in the north

#1007 Postby Bunkertor » Sun May 25, 2008 8:27 pm

double post edit
Last edited by Bunkertor on Sun May 25, 2008 8:52 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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#1008 Postby snoopj » Sun May 25, 2008 8:28 pm

KCRG just reported 2 confirmed deaths in Parkersburg.
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#1009 Postby senorpepr » Sun May 25, 2008 8:31 pm

Just a few miles away from me... 70 mph winds

"0057 70 BELLEVUE SARPY NE 4116 9592 NEAR HIGHWAY 75 AND PLATTEVIEW ROAD. LAWN FURNITURE BLOWN AROUND. (OAX)"
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#1010 Postby senorpepr » Sun May 25, 2008 8:34 pm

Nice, full double rainbow outside now...


Pictures to come...
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#1011 Postby Bunkertor » Sun May 25, 2008 8:37 pm

Parkersburg looks like Arnheim bridge

It´s the third town totally wiped out this year
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Re: Tornado outbreak again today?

#1012 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun May 25, 2008 8:44 pm

awilson wrote:
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Even if it's a f5, it won't be, unless it hits a hosipital or a soild building made of something strong. I wish there was a way to use radar to tell the wind speed of a tornado; maybe some day in the future.

What is the test to determine what it will be rated as, then? And what qualifies as a "solid building"? The high school was pretty well done in (superintendent has declared it will not be used again; the second floor is gone but the foundation and part of the first floor remain), for example.


So the first floor and the foundation was still there? If so, it was no F5. A f5 would of destroyed everything standing.
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Re: Tornado outbreak again today?

#1013 Postby SamSagnella » Sun May 25, 2008 8:46 pm

Dozens of emergency crews descended on the town to look for those who have not been located and assess the damage. At least 20 people in the area remained unaccounted for, but many of them could be out of town over the long holiday weekend, Ericson said.

http://www.startribune.com/local/192464 ... efer=Taste
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Re: Tornado outbreak again today?

#1014 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun May 25, 2008 8:47 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:
awilson wrote:
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Even if it's a f5, it won't be, unless it hits a hosipital or a soild building made of something strong. I wish there was a way to use radar to tell the wind speed of a tornado; maybe some day in the future.

What is the test to determine what it will be rated as, then? And what qualifies as a "solid building"? The high school was pretty well done in (superintendent has declared it will not be used again; the second floor is gone but the foundation and part of the first floor remain), for example.


So the first floor and the foundation was still there? If so, it was no F5. A f5 would of destroyed everything standing.


For a high school to lose its upper levels, that is EF3 damage I believe.
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#1015 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun May 25, 2008 8:48 pm

Now the threat seems to be shifting to potential derechos.
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Re: Tornado outbreak again today?

#1016 Postby shorty121 » Sun May 25, 2008 8:49 pm

I'm on the phone with a friend in Bedford, IA. Anyone have any thoughts on what sort of weather they may get? Also my friend's brother is in Maryville, MO. He went to see the new Indiana Jones movie and it gets out soon. We are hoping he checks his cell before getting on the road trying to drive back to Bedford...
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Re: Tornado outbreak again today?

#1017 Postby awilson » Sun May 25, 2008 8:50 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:
awilson wrote:
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Even if it's a f5, it won't be, unless it hits a hosipital or a soild building made of something strong. I wish there was a way to use radar to tell the wind speed of a tornado; maybe some day in the future.

What is the test to determine what it will be rated as, then? And what qualifies as a "solid building"? The high school was pretty well done in (superintendent has declared it will not be used again; the second floor is gone but the foundation and part of the first floor remain), for example.


So the first floor and the foundation was still there? If so, it was no F5. A f5 would of destroyed everything standing.

Yeah, there's quite a bit left; larger structures in town are still partially there.

I can't find any good pictures of the school as it looks from the ground, but there's a little picture from the WHO-TV copter here: http://www.whotv.com/global/story.asp?s=8378124 -- it's captioned, fourth from the top.
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#1018 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun May 25, 2008 8:50 pm

SEL9

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 369
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
845 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EASTERN AND SOUTHERN KANSAS
WESTERN AND NORTHERN MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 845 PM UNTIL
400 AM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
CHILLICOTHE MISSOURI TO 50 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF WICHITA
KANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 361. WATCH NUMBER 361 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER
845 PM CDT. CONTINUE...WW 360...WW 362...WW 364...WW 365...WW
366...WW 367...WW 368...

DISCUSSION...N CNTRL KS MCS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE E INTO VERY
UNSTABLE AIR OVER ERN KS/NRN MO. DEEP SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR
ADDITIONAL EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITH A THREAT FOR ISOLD TORNADOES
GIVEN RICH MOISTURE INFLOW. THE SYSTEM SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A SQLN
WITH LOCALLY DMGG WIND LATER TONIGHT. FARTHER S...OTHER
STORMS/POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG INTERSECTION OF
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OF NRN KS MCS WITH EWD-MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NOW
EXITING SW KS. THESE STORMS WILL BE IN SLIGHTLY WEAKER DEEP SHEAR
RELATIVE TO POINTS FARTHER N. HOWEVER...GIVEN RICH MOISTURE
FEED/NOCTURNAL STRENGTHENING OF LLJ...THESE ALSO COULD POSE A THREAT
FOR ISOLD TORNADOES BEFORE BECOMING UNDERCUT BY COLD POOL.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26035.


...CORFIDI
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Re: Tornado outbreak again today?

#1019 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun May 25, 2008 8:51 pm

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
848 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

IAC075-083-127-260200-
/O.CON.KDMX.TO.W.0021.000000T0000Z-080526T0200Z/
HARDIN IA-GRUNDY IA-MARSHALL IA-
848 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN MARSHALL...SOUTHWESTERN GRUNDY AND SOUTHEASTERN HARDIN
COUNTIES...

AT 843 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR WHITTEN...OR 37
MILES SOUTHWEST OF WATERLOO...MOVING EAST AT 43 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
BEAMAN BY 855 PM CDT...

SEEK SHELTER IN A BASEMENT...OR IN AN INTERIOR ROOM. STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE IN A CAR OR OUTSIDE...SEEK SHELTER IN A
REINFORCED BUILDING.

DELAYED REPORTS INDICATE STRUCTURAL DAMAGE AND HAIL TO GOLFBALL SIZE
WITH THIS STORM...IN THE HUBBARD AND NEW PROVIDENCE AREAS.

REPORT TORNADOES...WIND IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH...HAIL LARGER THAN ONE
HALF INCH...OR STORM DAMAGE BY CALLING LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AND
ASKING THEM TO RELAY THE REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4219 9292 4219 9293 4218 9302 4219 9307
4221 9308 4236 9323 4243 9280 4236 9280
4219 9279
TIME...MOT...LOC 0148Z 267DEG 37KT 4224 9291

$$

VACHALEK
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#1020 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun May 25, 2008 9:17 pm

BREAKING NEWS: 6 dead in Iowa - 5 in Parkersburg, 1 in New Hartford
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