Memorial Day Weekend Outbreak 2008

[CrazyC83]

UNCONFIRMED: 1 dead in New Hartford, IA

[btangy]

The long track tornado/supercell in NE Iowa is tracking very close to Dyersville. May be a situation where the tornado goes slightly N of the city but rear flank downdraft blasts the city with 70knot+ winds. Population of Dyersville is a little over 4000.

[btangy]

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DES MOINES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN GUTHRIE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL IOWA...

* UNTIL 830 PM CDT.

* AT 740 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 7 MILES WEST OF
GUTHRIE CENTER...OR 53 MILES WEST OF DES MOINES...MOVING EAST AT 35
MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
GUTHRIE CENTER BY 750 PM CDT...
BAGLEY BY 800 PM CDT...
YALE AND PANORA BY 805 PM CDT...
JAMAICA BY 810 PM CDT...

[snoopj]

My fear on the NE Iowa storm is that it's regenerating the hook. And with the direct E track, there's a small "city" (in Iowa terms) of Dubuque in the path.

--snoopj

[CrazyC83]

The long track tornado/supercell in NE Iowa is tracking very close to Dyersville. May be a situation where the tornado goes slightly N of the city but rear flank downdraft blasts the city with 70knot+ winds. Population of Dyersville is a little over 4000.

That seems to be a new tornado after the supercell cycled - way too far south from the original tornado reports.

[CrazyC83]

PDS watch 363 dropped, watch 368 (another PDS?) coming for the same area.

[CrazyC83]

No more PDS watches:

SEL8

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 368
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
755 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHERN...CENTRAL AND EASTERN IOWA
NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS
NORTHEAST MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 755 PM UNTIL
300 AM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 130 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTHWEST OF DUBUQUE
IOWA TO 15 MILES EAST OF LAMONI IOWA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION
OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU8).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 363. WATCH NUMBER 363 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER
755 PM CDT. CONTINUE...WW 358...WW 360...WW 361...WW 362...WW
364...WW 365...WW 366...WW 367...

DISCUSSION...TSTMS/SUPERCELLS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG AND AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT AND PREFRONTAL TROUGH OVER IA/NW IL. OTHER STORMS MAY
FORM LATER THIS EVENING INVOF DIFFUSE WARM FRONT OVER FAR WRN IL.
AMPLE SHEAR AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ARE PRESENT TO SUGGEST THREAT FOR
ADDITIONAL TORNADOES...DESPITE EXPECTED TENDENCY FOR STORM MODE TO
BECOME LESS DISCRETE WITH TIME. OTHER SVR STORMS...MAINLY POSING A
THREAT FOR HIGH WIND AND PERHAPS HAIL...EXPECTED TO
FORWARD-PROPAGATE ENE INTO WW FROM MCS NOW IN NE KS/SE NEB.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27035.


...CORFIDI

[Bunkertor]

Awaiting new DAY 1 outlk

[Cyclenall]

Can someone provide a link to the first video out of parkersburg (either the damage or tornado itself)? Thanks. I heard the damage looks like EF4-EF5.

[Melissa]

I live near Halstead, Kansas.

It's pretty windy and humid right now.

Hi Melissa...how's your area? I don't know if you got any severe weather or not.

Thank you so much for asking! Very windy and we can see the storm clouds from the north. Weather says we have 80% chance of severe storms tonight. Usually when a storm starts around Amarillo, TX, it hits us too.

[CrazyC83]

Parkersburg video: looks like Greensburg - at least EF4 I would say

[Cyclenall]

Parkersburg video: looks like Greensburg

Link?

[CrazyC83]

Parkersburg video: looks like Greensburg

Link?

http://www.kcrg.com/news/streaming/1047 ... eo=pop&t=a

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1034
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0807 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN/CENTRAL/NERN KS...SERN NEB...NWRN MO.

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 361...

VALID 260107Z - 260300Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 361 CONTINUES.

CONTINUE WW ALONG/AHEAD OF MCS AND TRAILING CONVECTION DESCRIBED
BELOW. ERN PORTION OF ASSOCIATED SVR POTENTIAL WILL SPREAD/DEVELOP
EWD FROM NERN PORTIONS WW INTO MO VALLEY REGION OF NERN KS/NWRN
MO...DURING NEXT FEW HOURS. ANOTHER WW ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED AS A
RESULT....WITHIN ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS. NEW WW ALSO BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS S-CENTRAL KS CURRENTLY S OF WW 361 AND E OF WW 365.

QUASI-LINEAR MCS HAS EVOLVED FROM EARLIER CLUSTER OF MULTICELLS AND
SUPERCELLS...AND IS EVIDENT FROM NEMAHA COUNTY KS WSWWD TO PAWNEE
COUNTY KS AS OF 0040Z. BKN BAND OF SUPERCELLS AND SMALL BOW ECHOES
IS EVIDENT WITHIN THIS LINE...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE/DAMAGING
HAIL AS WELL AS SEVERE GUSTS. TORNADO THREAT MAY PERSIST WITH ANY
TSTMS WITH ACCESS TO RELATIVELY UNDISTURBED INFLOW AIR AHEAD OF
AGGREGATE GUST FRONT FRONT. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN DDC-P28
APPEARS LINEAR ATTM...BUT MAY EVOLVE INTO EITHER HP SUPERCELL OR
BOWING STRUCTURE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING GUSTS...WITH SLGT
POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO UPON INTERACTING WITH SWD MOVING GUST FRONT
FROM LARGER MCS TO N AND NE...OVER PORTIONS STAFFORD/RENO/PRATT
COUNTIES.

DDC RAOB SAMPLED INFLOW LAYER AVAILABLE TO SWRN KS ACTIVITY
REASONABLY WELL...WITH MLCAPES ABOUT 2200 J/KG...1700 M LCL AND 50
KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDE. PRIND COMBINATION OF DIABATIC
SFC COOLING AND MOIST ADVECTION WILL LOWER LCL...ALTHOUGH SBCINH IS
INCREASING SLOWLY OVER SRN/ERN KS. PRIND EFFECTIVE INFLOW PARCELS
WILL REMAIN ROOTED NEAR SFC FOR ANOTHER 2-3 HOURS. MEANWHILE
ALREADY FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ENLARGE SOMEWHAT WITH
STRENGTHENING OF LLJ TO AROUND 50 KT...AS REASONABLY PROGGED BY RUC.
THERFORE...WHILE STORM MODE IS BECOMING LESS FAVORABLE OVER
KS...TORNADO POTENTIAL IS NOT YET FINISHED.

..EDWARDS.. 05/26/2008


ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...DDC...

37049902 38379933 38609865 39139728 40019614 40549591
40399360 38949407 37809675

[btangy]

Good lord, I just saw the video from Pakersburg. It looks horrendous.

[CrazyC83]

Damage in Parkersburg looks like EF4.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Even if it's a f5, it won't be, unless it hits a hosipital or a soild building made of something strong. I wish there was a way to use radar to tell the wind speed of a tornado; maybe some day in the future.

[btangy]

Unfortunately, it looks like the supercell may be cycling through again. I thought it was done, but the hook is starting to reappear and the velocity couplet is starting to become a bit more defined. I'm thinking it'll pass S of Dubuque, but it's going to be very close.

[senorpepr]

Gust front just came through here. We lost power for a little bit. Had 1/2" hail and a peak wind of 45 mph here at the house.

[btangy]

The National Weather Service in Des Moines has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
southwestern Grundy County in central Iowa...
southern Hardin County in central Iowa...
northern Marshall County in central Iowa...
northeastern Story County in central Iowa...

* until 900 PM CDT.

* At 814 PM CDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a
severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado 7 miles
southwest of Hubbard... or 46 miles southeast of Fort Dodge... moving
east at 35 mph.

* The tornado will be near...
Hubbard by 820 PM CDT...
New Providence by 830 PM CDT...
Union by 840 PM CDT...
Whitten and Liscomb by 845 PM CDT...
Conrad by 855 PM CDT...
Beaman by 900 PM CDT...