Bunkertor wrote:It´s dying
Conditions are favorable for more to develop...
Memorial Day Weekend Outbreak 2008
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Re:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:crazy footage on CNN!
Some of the most amazing live video I have ever seen is on right now and has been for the past 10 minutes on CNN near Hennessey, Oklahoma.
UNBELIEVABLE!!!!
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re:
Bunkertor wrote:Outlook update 10 minutes delayed.
Either they are watching CNN or the are not sure if an upgrade would be recommended.
Yeah I would think there is discussion in the SPC about whether to upgrade.
NEW TORNADO ON THE GROUND per KWTV...
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
SEL9
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 349
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
310 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 310 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH OF ONEILL
NEBRASKA TO 35 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BEATRICE NEBRASKA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 346...WW 347...WW 348...
DISCUSSION...WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY NWD AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
ACROSS NEB CONDITIONS ARE NOW FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AS STRONG MID LEVEL WIND MAX TRAVERSES AREA.
SUPERCELLS INCLUDING LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
STORMS INCREASE IN BOTH NUMBER AND INTENSITY THRU REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23040.
...HALES
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 349
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
310 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 310 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH OF ONEILL
NEBRASKA TO 35 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BEATRICE NEBRASKA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 346...WW 347...WW 348...
DISCUSSION...WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY NWD AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
ACROSS NEB CONDITIONS ARE NOW FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AS STRONG MID LEVEL WIND MAX TRAVERSES AREA.
SUPERCELLS INCLUDING LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
STORMS INCREASE IN BOTH NUMBER AND INTENSITY THRU REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23040.
...HALES
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Tornado outbreak again today?
Virtually unchanged except for the new 10% in OK (should at least be hatched):
SPC AC 242006
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0306 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2008
VALID 242000Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT
PLAINS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FL
PANHANDLE...
...CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER
THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. A STRONG 85 TO 100 KT MID-LEVEL JET IS LOCATED
FROM SE CO EXTENDING NNEWD INTO CNTRL NEB. AT THE SFC...A 997 MB LOW
IS LOCATED IN FAR SE MT WITH A PRONOUNCED WARM FRONT EXTENDING SEWD
ACROSS SRN SD INTO NERN NEB. RAPID MOISTURE ADVECTION IS OCCURRING
IN THE CNTRL PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH A 40 TO 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET. SFC
DEWPOINTS SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S F IN ERN NEB AND
INTO THE LOWER 60S F IN ERN SD. MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE IN
PLACE ALONG THE MOIST AXIS BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS INITIATING AND MOVING NEWD ACROSS THE REGION.
SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SOUTHEAST OF
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS SLIGHTLY OUT OF PHASE WITH THE INSTABILITY
AXIS. THIS SHOULD ENCOURAGE CONVECTIVE INITIATE ON THE ERN EDGE OF
THE INSTABILITY AXIS AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES AWAY FROM THE
REGION THIS EVENING. MCS DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS ERN SD
AND WRN MN WHERE FORCING WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND LIFT FROM
THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE MAXIMIZED. FURTHER SOUTH IN ERN
NEB...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND DESTABILIZATION. SEVERAL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS
SHOULD DEVELOP IN THIS PART OF THE REGION AS WELL.
CONCERNING THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE
CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS SHOW STRONG TO VERY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES RANGING FROM 80 TO 90 KT ACROSS
NEB AND SD TO AROUND 50 KT IN NERN KS. AS INSTABILITY
INCREASES...THE STRONG SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EVIDENT
ON OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS OVER SD AND NEB SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH
LARGE HAIL. IN ADDITION...REGIONAL PROFILERS SUGGEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES WITH THE MORE PERSISTENT
ROTATING STORMS. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO
SHOULD BE ACROSS ERN NEB WHERE THE COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
AND INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE AS
AN MCS OR SEVERAL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS MOVE INTO THE ERN PART OF
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA.
...SRN PLAINS...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING
NNWWD ACROSS CNTRL OK INTO SRN KS WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER
70S F. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IN
PLACE ACROSS MOST OF OK WITH MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 3000 TO 4000 J/KG
RANGE. SEVERAL INTENSE SUPERCELLS ARE ONGOING ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF
THE INSTABILITY AXIS. PROFILERS ACROSS THE AREA SHOW MODERATE
VERTICAL SHEAR WHICH WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE STORMS ARE VERY NEAR THE WRN
EDGE OF A LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY. BACKED SFC WINDS NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY AND ABOUT 20 KT OF LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOWN BY PROFILERS
ASSOCIATED THE AXIS OF A LOW-LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE A TORNADO
THREAT ACROSS NRN OK...SEE MCD 1005 AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES MAY EXPAND INTO SRN
KS. AN ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE STRONG
INSTABILITY AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO SUPPORT VERY
LARGE HAIL WITH THE MORE INTENSE SUPERCELLS.
...GA/FL...
THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS ACROSS THE REGION SHOWS MID TO UPPER 60S F
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA EXTENDING NWD INTO CNTRL GA.
MODERATE INSTABILITY IS LOCATED ACROSS MUCH OF GA SWD ACROSS THE ERN
PART OF THE FL PENINSULA. SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE
ONGOING IN ERN FL AND THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE
HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST VERTICAL SHEAR AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ACROSS ERN FL WILL SUPPORT MULTICELL CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE TIED
CLOSELY TO PEAK HEATING. FURTHER NORTH ACROSS ERN GA...OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR IN PLACE. THIS ALONG WITH
COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN EAST COAST UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MAY
SUPPORT A THREAT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL.
...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER NRN CA.
STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND COLD AIR ALOFT WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW SHOULD ALLOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT
AN ISOLATED HAIL THREAT WITH THE STRONGER CORES WITH THE GREATEST
THREAT ALONG AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY FROM SWRN ID NWWD ACROSS CNTRL
ORE.
..BROYLES.. 05/24/2008
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 2014Z (4:14PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
SPC AC 242006
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0306 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2008
VALID 242000Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT
PLAINS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FL
PANHANDLE...
...CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER
THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. A STRONG 85 TO 100 KT MID-LEVEL JET IS LOCATED
FROM SE CO EXTENDING NNEWD INTO CNTRL NEB. AT THE SFC...A 997 MB LOW
IS LOCATED IN FAR SE MT WITH A PRONOUNCED WARM FRONT EXTENDING SEWD
ACROSS SRN SD INTO NERN NEB. RAPID MOISTURE ADVECTION IS OCCURRING
IN THE CNTRL PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH A 40 TO 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET. SFC
DEWPOINTS SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S F IN ERN NEB AND
INTO THE LOWER 60S F IN ERN SD. MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE IN
PLACE ALONG THE MOIST AXIS BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS INITIATING AND MOVING NEWD ACROSS THE REGION.
SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SOUTHEAST OF
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS SLIGHTLY OUT OF PHASE WITH THE INSTABILITY
AXIS. THIS SHOULD ENCOURAGE CONVECTIVE INITIATE ON THE ERN EDGE OF
THE INSTABILITY AXIS AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES AWAY FROM THE
REGION THIS EVENING. MCS DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS ERN SD
AND WRN MN WHERE FORCING WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND LIFT FROM
THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE MAXIMIZED. FURTHER SOUTH IN ERN
NEB...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND DESTABILIZATION. SEVERAL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS
SHOULD DEVELOP IN THIS PART OF THE REGION AS WELL.
CONCERNING THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE
CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS SHOW STRONG TO VERY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES RANGING FROM 80 TO 90 KT ACROSS
NEB AND SD TO AROUND 50 KT IN NERN KS. AS INSTABILITY
INCREASES...THE STRONG SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EVIDENT
ON OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS OVER SD AND NEB SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH
LARGE HAIL. IN ADDITION...REGIONAL PROFILERS SUGGEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES WITH THE MORE PERSISTENT
ROTATING STORMS. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO
SHOULD BE ACROSS ERN NEB WHERE THE COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
AND INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE AS
AN MCS OR SEVERAL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS MOVE INTO THE ERN PART OF
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA.
...SRN PLAINS...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING
NNWWD ACROSS CNTRL OK INTO SRN KS WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER
70S F. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IN
PLACE ACROSS MOST OF OK WITH MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 3000 TO 4000 J/KG
RANGE. SEVERAL INTENSE SUPERCELLS ARE ONGOING ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF
THE INSTABILITY AXIS. PROFILERS ACROSS THE AREA SHOW MODERATE
VERTICAL SHEAR WHICH WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE STORMS ARE VERY NEAR THE WRN
EDGE OF A LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY. BACKED SFC WINDS NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY AND ABOUT 20 KT OF LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOWN BY PROFILERS
ASSOCIATED THE AXIS OF A LOW-LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE A TORNADO
THREAT ACROSS NRN OK...SEE MCD 1005 AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES MAY EXPAND INTO SRN
KS. AN ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE STRONG
INSTABILITY AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO SUPPORT VERY
LARGE HAIL WITH THE MORE INTENSE SUPERCELLS.
...GA/FL...
THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS ACROSS THE REGION SHOWS MID TO UPPER 60S F
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA EXTENDING NWD INTO CNTRL GA.
MODERATE INSTABILITY IS LOCATED ACROSS MUCH OF GA SWD ACROSS THE ERN
PART OF THE FL PENINSULA. SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE
ONGOING IN ERN FL AND THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE
HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST VERTICAL SHEAR AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ACROSS ERN FL WILL SUPPORT MULTICELL CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE TIED
CLOSELY TO PEAK HEATING. FURTHER NORTH ACROSS ERN GA...OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR IN PLACE. THIS ALONG WITH
COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN EAST COAST UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MAY
SUPPORT A THREAT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL.
...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER NRN CA.
STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND COLD AIR ALOFT WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW SHOULD ALLOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT
AN ISOLATED HAIL THREAT WITH THE STRONGER CORES WITH THE GREATEST
THREAT ALONG AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY FROM SWRN ID NWWD ACROSS CNTRL
ORE.
..BROYLES.. 05/24/2008
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 2014Z (4:14PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
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