Global Model Runs for W.Caribbean Early Season Development

[HURAKAN]

Seeing is believing.

It never lies!

[flwxwatcher]

Seeing is believing.

It never lies!

Agreed!!!

[Opal storm]

Yeah I will believe when I see it, still a little far out IMO. But we've had early starts to the season the past few years, so a weak TS or something wouldn't be totally crazy.

[deltadog03]

Well, you have sooo much air pilling into the western carrib. right now, since that high is fairly strong in the atlantic. I havn't really thought about the cane season yet, but it wouldn't be suprising to me to see something come out of there.

[Meso]

12z

[Cyclone1]

Holy...

That looks much stronger than other runs.

This storm has been showing up for days, I'm officially willing to buy into this scenario.

[HURAKAN]

That would be great for the dry conditions.

[Eyewall]

This is something we all need to start taking serious the gfs and been consistent with this for way to long. And now it is starting to show a possible cat 1 hurricane and the water temperatures in the gulf are warm enough to support just that and stronger. It is just a matter of wether the uppel lever winds will be favorable to allow it to strenghten to a hurricane. If this does happen we could be in for a ruff hurricane season.

[JonathanBelles]

I was just gonna post that frame, compare it to Barry, and then say oh s*!t. lol

[Opal storm]

This is something we all need to start taking serious the gfs and been consistent with this for way to long. And now it is starting to show a possible cat 1 hurricane and the water temperatures in the gulf are warm enough to support just that and stronger. It is just a matter of wether the uppel lever winds will be favorable to allow it to strenghten to a hurricane. If this does happen we could be in for a ruff hurricane season.

Nothing to be concerned about until something actually develops. This is still a phantom storm.

[Ed Mahmoud]

The new 12Z GFS solution of bouncing off Tampa and then hitting Mississippi with a TC, while inplausible, is interesting. And development does start before the loss of resolution at 180 hours.


ETA- the bouncing off Florida scenario, while not super-likely, would end the dry spell and save the Coke Zero 400 from the threat of wildfires.

[JonathanBelles]

I am starting...starting to buy into this idea of a storm. Simply because it has been so very consistent.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Consistent can be consistently wrong. Bastardi got burned on early season Caribbean development last year because the Euro predicted it 3 or 4 runs in a row before backing off of it.

[Evil Jeremy]

Consistent can be consistently wrong. Bastardi got burned on early season Caribbean development last year because the Euro predicted it 3 or 4 runs in a row before backing off of it.

There is a difference though with 3-4 runs and 3-4 days of runs. This is very consistent.

[JonathanBelles]

This is much more than 3-4 runs.

[Opal storm]

What a way to start off the summer if this actually happened, just what we need is a gas rush along the Gulf coast.

[flwxwatcher]

Consistent can be consistently wrong. Bastardi got burned on early season Caribbean development last year because the Euro predicted it 3 or 4 runs in a row before backing off of it.

Agreed.. this happens every year!! Models try and develop something in the SW Caribbean due to the lower pressures down there this time of the year.

[Eyewall]

keep in mind just last season we had Andera develop before june first and then on the first day of the season we had Barry. Thats why I think it will happen. But would not be surprised if it did not happen because I know these modles have a mind of their own.

[Ed Mahmoud]

If the GFS is correct, while the disturbance will be in a localized minima for deep shear, it will still be under decent shear. On the other hand, it is under generally anti-cyclonic flow aloft, and in a favorable region for upward motion from the sub-tropical jet.

[Eyewall]

True this does happen every year but this is some indication of pressure falls in the caribbean for the last past two weeks now and this has been very consistent. And that is one of the things we look for in potential storm development down the road.