Global Model Runs for W.Caribbean Early Season Development

[NDG]

Regarding the euro I just have one question, since when is the euro good at tropical storm formation, if memory serves me correct it has always been inconsistant in the early stages of a tropical system.
It did great last year in the tracking of both major hurricanes in the Tropical low latitudes, but that was about it.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Regarding the euro I just have one question, since when is the euro good at tropical storm formation, if memory serves me correct it has always been inconsistant in the early stages of a tropical system.
It did great last year in the tracking of both major hurricanes in the Tropical low latitudes, but that was about it.

I know at least one pro-met (Derek) who has little good to say about the Euro, but it seems to have some support from the Canadian and the UK Met. The GFS solution at 12Z of developing cyclones either side of South America seems less likely to verify.

[Vortex]

For what its worth the 18z Nogaps at H+108 closes of a 1008mb low across the sw carribean.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... rp&tau=108

[Ed Mahmoud]

Not sure why all the Navy sites trip my computers spider-sense re: security certificate.

[flwxwatcher]

Not sure why all the Navy sites trip my computers spider-sense re: security certificate.

They do the same for me.

[jimvb]

The 2008 May 23 18Z GFS run is out. It's gotten strange now. It shows a storm originating east of Nicaragua, moving north past western Cuba to east of Miami, but by the time this happens, another storm forms in the Bay of Campeche and heads northeast across Florida and it seems like it bumps the first storm out of the way, or maybe it's like two airliners coming within seconds of each other, with one taking off and the other landing.

[flwxwatcher]

The 2008 May 23 18Z GFS run is out. It's gotten strange now. It shows a storm originating east of Nicaragua, moving north past western Cuba to east of Miami, but by the time this happens, another storm forms in the Bay of Campeche and heads northeast across Florida and it seems like it bumps the first storm out of the way, or maybe it's like two airliners coming within seconds of each other, with one taking off and the other landing.

It looks to me what the GFS is doing is developing a system in the EPAC and also taking a disturbance in the Caribbean Up towards Florida. It then takes the EPAC system north and into the Bay of Campeche and then towards Florida.. The 12Z EURO hints at something similar . If something does develop in the EPAC, it should inhibit anything getting too organized in the Western Caribbean. As for any EPAC system ending up in the Gulf,it has happened before but with any solution in the longer range it should be taken with a grain of salt.

[Vortex]

Ed,

Has JB mentioned anything on the Carribean scenario rcently?

Thanks as usual.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Not sure why all the Navy sites trip my computers spider-sense re: security certificate.

They do the same for me.

Indeed, same here people LOL.

[Duddy]

Not sure why all the Navy sites trip my computers spider-sense re: security certificate.

If your using Firefox, be sure to add an exception for the unknown security certificate.

[Duddy]

The 2008 May 23 18Z GFS run is out. It's gotten strange now. It shows a storm originating east of Nicaragua, moving north past western Cuba to east of Miami, but by the time this happens, another storm forms in the Bay of Campeche and heads northeast across Florida and it seems like it bumps the first storm out of the way, or maybe it's like two airliners coming within seconds of each other, with one taking off and the other landing.

It looks to me what the GFS is doing is developing a system in the EPAC and also taking a disturbance in the Caribbean Up towards Florida. It then takes the EPAC system north and into the Bay of Campeche and then towards Florida.. The 12Z EURO hints at something similar . If something does develop in the EPAC, it should inhibit anything getting too organized in the Western Caribbean. As for any EPAC system ending up in the Gulf,it has happened before but with any solution in the longer range it should be taken with a grain of salt.

I really can't stand that "grain of salt" expression anymore.

[Cyclone1]

Duddy: It's not NEARLY as bad as "Stick a fork in it" or worse, "It's dead, Jim!"

It never, ever, ever,ever, ever, ever fails, when a system fizzles out, someone posts that image of the "It's Dead Jim" quote. And I see it. For the trillionth time. And I die a little inside.

[wxman57]

Duddy: It's not NEARLY as bad as "Stick a fork in it" or worse, "It's dead, Jim!"

It never, ever, ever,ever, ever, ever fails, when a system fizzles out, someone posts that image of the "It's Dead Jim" quote. And I see it. For the trillionth time. And I die a little inside.

Now, who would do that?

[Cyclone1]

Yes, you just killed a tiny part of me. I hope you're happy.

[flwxwatcher]

The 2008 May 23 18Z GFS run is out. It's gotten strange now. It shows a storm originating east of Nicaragua, moving north past western Cuba to east of Miami, but by the time this happens, another storm forms in the Bay of Campeche and heads northeast across Florida and it seems like it bumps the first storm out of the way, or maybe it's like two airliners coming within seconds of each other, with one taking off and the other landing.

It looks to me what the GFS is doing is developing a system in the EPAC and also taking a disturbance in the Caribbean Up towards Florida. It then takes the EPAC system north and into the Bay of Campeche and then towards Florida.. The 12Z EURO hints at something similar . If something does develop in the EPAC, it should inhibit anything getting too organized in the Western Caribbean. As for any EPAC system ending up in the Gulf,it has happened before but with any solution in the longer range it should be taken with a grain of salt.

I really can't stand that "grain of salt" expression anymore.

I'll take your response with a grain of salt.

[flwxwatcher]

Duddy: It's not NEARLY as bad as "Stick a fork in it" or worse, "It's dead, Jim!"

It never, ever, ever,ever, ever, ever fails, when a system fizzles out, someone posts that image of the "It's Dead Jim" quote. And I see it. For the trillionth time. And I die a little inside.

Now, who would do that?

[Rainband]

something that was never there cant be dead

[jimvb]

I wonder what the 2008/05/24 00Z GFS run will come up with.

Now I am beginning to think of this storm coming up in early June as a horse. If we have been talking about it a lot, and if, like the StarTrek people say, it's dead, we're beating a dead horse, or maybe a dead horse that was never a horse to begin with.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Through tau=84, no drought busting tropical cyclones for Florida to save the Coke Zero 400 race on July 4th weekend.

[NDG]

GFS is just not giving up, is amazing how persistent & consistent it is, if anything it makes its ghost storm stronger than its previous two runs.