Memorial Day Weekend Outbreak 2008
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Texas Snowman
- Storm2k Moderator
- Posts: 6179
- Joined: Fri Jan 25, 2008 11:29 am
- Location: Denison, Texas
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Ed Mahmoud
Re: Severe weather today/tomorrow?
Texas Snowman wrote:Topic title changed.
Tx Snowman
You got my PM?
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Texas Snowman
- Storm2k Moderator
- Posts: 6179
- Joined: Fri Jan 25, 2008 11:29 am
- Location: Denison, Texas
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Severe weather today/tomorrow?
SPC AC 221634
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1134 AM CDT THU MAY 22 2008
VALID 221630Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NERN
CO...EXTREME SWRN NEB...WRN AND CENTRAL KS...EXTREME NORTHWEST OK...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
AND SRN PLAINS...
...SYNOPSIS...
AT MID MORNING...SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR COS AND IS FORECAST TO
LIFT SLOWLY ENEWD INTO EAST CENTRAL CO THIS AFTERNOON. DRYLINE
EXTENDED SWD FROM THE LOW TO NEAR THE TX/NM BORDER. WARM FRONT
STRETCHED FROM BETWEEN COS/DEN EWD THROUGH NERN CO AND THEN SEWD
INTO CENTRAL KS. APPARENT FEATURE FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WAS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY LOCATED NEAR ABQ. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD TURN MORE NWD THROUGH
TIME AS IT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...AND GIVEN ITS
CURRENT MOTION NEAR 40 KT...TROUGH SHOULD BE LOCATED IN SERN CO BY
21Z AND THEN CONTINUE NEWD INTO CENTRAL NEB BY 06Z.
...NERN CO/SERN WY/NEB PANHANDLE...
MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWED AN AXIS OF 55 TO 60 DEWPOINTS EXTENDING NWWD
INTO NERN CO ALONG AND NORTH OF WARM FRONT. THE FRONT WILL LIFT ONLY
SLIGHTLY NWD TODAY AND MAINTAIN ESELY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN 50-60 DEGREE DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...YIELDING SBCAPES BETWEEN 1500-2500 J/KG. SKIES WERE
GENERALLY SUNNY ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN CO PLAINS...SOUTH OF A
GLY-GLD LINE. MORNING SOUNDING AT DEN WAS WEAKLY CAPPED AND GIVEN
THAT LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL ARRIVE BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON...
SURFACE BASED STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS NERN CO...
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE PALMER RIDGE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
ONCE STORMS FORM...THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR AT
60 KT WILL RESULT IN RAPID SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES SUGGEST VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...THOUGH
SRH VALUES FROM 200-300 M2/S2 FAVOR TORNADOES...SOME STRONG. CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY ERODE FROM THE SOUTH ACROSS SERN WY AND
PORTIONS OF THE WRN NEB PANHANDLE BY LATE AFTERNOON. CONTINUED
SEVERE THREAT...INCLUDING POSSIBLE TORNADOES...ARE EXPECTED TO
SPREAD INTO THIS REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.
...CENTRAL/WRN KS...SWRN NEB.. NWRN OK...
BAND OF WEAK ELEVATED CONVECTION/CLOUDS WAS EVIDENT THIS MORNING
FROM THE TX PANHANDLE NWD ACROSS FAR ERN CO/WRN KS. THE CLOUDS HAVE
RECENTLY BEEN DECREASING ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE AND THIS TREND IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD AID IN PUSHING DRYLINE EWD INTO
SWRN KS AND THROUGH MOST OF THE TX PANHANDLE BY LATE AFTERNOON.
DEWPOINTS ALREADY HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER AND MID 60S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR. MORNING CLOUDS AND STRONG CAPPING INVERSION
SHOULD LIMIT SURFACE BASED CONVECTION UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL ALOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE
80S...RESULTING IN MLCAPES FROM 2000-3000 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH A 70-80 KT SLY MID LEVEL JET AND 50-60 KT DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR INTENSE SUPERCELLS. STRONGLY
VEERING WINDS PROFILES IN THE LOWER 1 TO 2 KM...RESULTING IN 1KM SRH
AROUND 300 M2/S2...WILL ALSO SUPPORT A FEW SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES
INTO MID EVENING.
...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
STRONGER BUOYANCY...MLCAPES FROM 3500-3500 J/KG...AND CONVERGENCE
ALONG DRYLINE MAY INITIATE STORMS ACROSS THE ERN TX PANHANDLE AND
WRN OK LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...STRONG CAPPING AND MID LEVEL HEIGHT
RISES MAY LIMIT STORM COVERAGE MORE SO THAN ACROSS KS.
HOWEVER...THIS ENVIRONMENT WOULD ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR LONGER-LIVED
SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP. ANY SUPERCELL THAT DEVELOPS COULD PRODUCE A
STRONG TORNADO ALONG WITH VERY LARGE HAIL INTO MID EVENING.
...ERN TX/OK EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY...
WEAK UPPER LOW OVER SERN TX WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY NEWD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AIR MASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH RICH
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER. SHEAR WILL BE RELATIVELY
WEAK. THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY LIKELY WILL RESULT IN A FEW STORMS
WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WINDS...BUT WIND SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT
COVERAGE AND DURATION OF SUCH EVENTS.
..IMY/LEVIT.. 05/22/2008
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1637Z (12:37PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1134 AM CDT THU MAY 22 2008
VALID 221630Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NERN
CO...EXTREME SWRN NEB...WRN AND CENTRAL KS...EXTREME NORTHWEST OK...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
AND SRN PLAINS...
...SYNOPSIS...
AT MID MORNING...SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR COS AND IS FORECAST TO
LIFT SLOWLY ENEWD INTO EAST CENTRAL CO THIS AFTERNOON. DRYLINE
EXTENDED SWD FROM THE LOW TO NEAR THE TX/NM BORDER. WARM FRONT
STRETCHED FROM BETWEEN COS/DEN EWD THROUGH NERN CO AND THEN SEWD
INTO CENTRAL KS. APPARENT FEATURE FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WAS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY LOCATED NEAR ABQ. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD TURN MORE NWD THROUGH
TIME AS IT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...AND GIVEN ITS
CURRENT MOTION NEAR 40 KT...TROUGH SHOULD BE LOCATED IN SERN CO BY
21Z AND THEN CONTINUE NEWD INTO CENTRAL NEB BY 06Z.
...NERN CO/SERN WY/NEB PANHANDLE...
MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWED AN AXIS OF 55 TO 60 DEWPOINTS EXTENDING NWWD
INTO NERN CO ALONG AND NORTH OF WARM FRONT. THE FRONT WILL LIFT ONLY
SLIGHTLY NWD TODAY AND MAINTAIN ESELY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN 50-60 DEGREE DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...YIELDING SBCAPES BETWEEN 1500-2500 J/KG. SKIES WERE
GENERALLY SUNNY ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN CO PLAINS...SOUTH OF A
GLY-GLD LINE. MORNING SOUNDING AT DEN WAS WEAKLY CAPPED AND GIVEN
THAT LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL ARRIVE BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON...
SURFACE BASED STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS NERN CO...
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE PALMER RIDGE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
ONCE STORMS FORM...THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR AT
60 KT WILL RESULT IN RAPID SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES SUGGEST VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...THOUGH
SRH VALUES FROM 200-300 M2/S2 FAVOR TORNADOES...SOME STRONG. CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY ERODE FROM THE SOUTH ACROSS SERN WY AND
PORTIONS OF THE WRN NEB PANHANDLE BY LATE AFTERNOON. CONTINUED
SEVERE THREAT...INCLUDING POSSIBLE TORNADOES...ARE EXPECTED TO
SPREAD INTO THIS REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.
...CENTRAL/WRN KS...SWRN NEB.. NWRN OK...
BAND OF WEAK ELEVATED CONVECTION/CLOUDS WAS EVIDENT THIS MORNING
FROM THE TX PANHANDLE NWD ACROSS FAR ERN CO/WRN KS. THE CLOUDS HAVE
RECENTLY BEEN DECREASING ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE AND THIS TREND IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD AID IN PUSHING DRYLINE EWD INTO
SWRN KS AND THROUGH MOST OF THE TX PANHANDLE BY LATE AFTERNOON.
DEWPOINTS ALREADY HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER AND MID 60S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR. MORNING CLOUDS AND STRONG CAPPING INVERSION
SHOULD LIMIT SURFACE BASED CONVECTION UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL ALOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE
80S...RESULTING IN MLCAPES FROM 2000-3000 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH A 70-80 KT SLY MID LEVEL JET AND 50-60 KT DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR INTENSE SUPERCELLS. STRONGLY
VEERING WINDS PROFILES IN THE LOWER 1 TO 2 KM...RESULTING IN 1KM SRH
AROUND 300 M2/S2...WILL ALSO SUPPORT A FEW SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES
INTO MID EVENING.
...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
STRONGER BUOYANCY...MLCAPES FROM 3500-3500 J/KG...AND CONVERGENCE
ALONG DRYLINE MAY INITIATE STORMS ACROSS THE ERN TX PANHANDLE AND
WRN OK LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...STRONG CAPPING AND MID LEVEL HEIGHT
RISES MAY LIMIT STORM COVERAGE MORE SO THAN ACROSS KS.
HOWEVER...THIS ENVIRONMENT WOULD ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR LONGER-LIVED
SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP. ANY SUPERCELL THAT DEVELOPS COULD PRODUCE A
STRONG TORNADO ALONG WITH VERY LARGE HAIL INTO MID EVENING.
...ERN TX/OK EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY...
WEAK UPPER LOW OVER SERN TX WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY NEWD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AIR MASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH RICH
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER. SHEAR WILL BE RELATIVELY
WEAK. THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY LIKELY WILL RESULT IN A FEW STORMS
WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WINDS...BUT WIND SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT
COVERAGE AND DURATION OF SUCH EVENTS.
..IMY/LEVIT.. 05/22/2008
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1637Z (12:37PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
0 likes
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Severe weather today/tomorrow?
Watch coming soon - possibly PDS:
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0969
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1206 PM CDT THU MAY 22 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN CO...EXTREME SERN WY...NEB PANHANDLE
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH NEEDED SOON
VALID 221706Z - 221730Z
AIRMASS IS WARMING/DEEPENING RAPIDLY ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL/SERN CO.
RESULTANT MIXING HAS FORCED DRYLINE NWD ACROSS ELBERT AND LINCOLN
COUNTIES. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED FROM THE NORTH-WEST
OF DENVER AND WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD/INTENSIFY EWD AS
BUOYANCY/UPSLOPE INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...SHEAR PROFILES ARE IMPRESSIVE AND WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND
TORNADOES. NWD STORM MOTIONS WILL RESULT IN SEVERE SPREADING ATOP
COOLER ELY FLOW INTO PORTIONS OF SERN WY/NEB PANHANDLE.
..DARROW.. 05/22/2008
ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...CYS...
41050492 41170291 40340205 39010210 38830300 39460371
39710504
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0969
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1206 PM CDT THU MAY 22 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN CO...EXTREME SERN WY...NEB PANHANDLE
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH NEEDED SOON
VALID 221706Z - 221730Z
AIRMASS IS WARMING/DEEPENING RAPIDLY ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL/SERN CO.
RESULTANT MIXING HAS FORCED DRYLINE NWD ACROSS ELBERT AND LINCOLN
COUNTIES. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED FROM THE NORTH-WEST
OF DENVER AND WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD/INTENSIFY EWD AS
BUOYANCY/UPSLOPE INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...SHEAR PROFILES ARE IMPRESSIVE AND WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND
TORNADOES. NWD STORM MOTIONS WILL RESULT IN SEVERE SPREADING ATOP
COOLER ELY FLOW INTO PORTIONS OF SERN WY/NEB PANHANDLE.
..DARROW.. 05/22/2008
ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...CYS...
41050492 41170291 40340205 39010210 38830300 39460371
39710504
0 likes
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Severe weather today/tomorrow?
TORNADO WARNING
COC123-221800-
/O.NEW.KBOU.TO.W.0004.080522T1718Z-080522T1800Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1118 AM MDT THU MAY 22 2008
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DENVER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN WELD COUNTY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO
* UNTIL NOON MDT
* AT 1117 AM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 5 MILES EAST OF
FORT LUPTON...OR 23 MILES SOUTH OF GREELEY. THIS STORM WAS MOVING
NORTHWEST AT 25 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
PLATTEVILLE...MILTON RESERVOIR...MILLIKEN...MEAD...GILCREST...
FREDERICK...FORT LUPTON AND FIRESTONE.
THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SAFE SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN
THE NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR
HANDS.
LAT...LON 4033 10505 4034 10461 4002 10465 4003 10492
TIME...MOT...LOC 1717Z 156DEG 15KT 4011 10473
$$
COC123-221800-
/O.NEW.KBOU.TO.W.0004.080522T1718Z-080522T1800Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1118 AM MDT THU MAY 22 2008
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DENVER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN WELD COUNTY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO
* UNTIL NOON MDT
* AT 1117 AM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 5 MILES EAST OF
FORT LUPTON...OR 23 MILES SOUTH OF GREELEY. THIS STORM WAS MOVING
NORTHWEST AT 25 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
PLATTEVILLE...MILTON RESERVOIR...MILLIKEN...MEAD...GILCREST...
FREDERICK...FORT LUPTON AND FIRESTONE.
THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SAFE SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN
THE NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR
HANDS.
LAT...LON 4033 10505 4034 10461 4002 10465 4003 10492
TIME...MOT...LOC 1717Z 156DEG 15KT 4011 10473
$$
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Surprisingly not a PDS (yet) despite numbers warranting such; I guess NWS Denver doesn't like that term?
SEL4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 334
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 AM MDT THU MAY 22 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO
EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1125 AM UNTIL
800 PM MDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
FORT COLLINS COLORADO TO 30 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF BURLINGTON
COLORADO. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN CO THIS AFTERNOON...AS STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
NEWD INTO THE AREA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT 60 KT AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY INDICATES NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY. STRONG
INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT HAIL IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. THE PRESENCE OF
A WARM FRONT AND STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR SUGGEST TORNADOES ARE ALSO
LIKELY. INITIAL STORMS NEAR THE FRONT RANGE WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD
EWD INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 17035.
...IMY
SEL4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 334
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 AM MDT THU MAY 22 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO
EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1125 AM UNTIL
800 PM MDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
FORT COLLINS COLORADO TO 30 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF BURLINGTON
COLORADO. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN CO THIS AFTERNOON...AS STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
NEWD INTO THE AREA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT 60 KT AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY INDICATES NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY. STRONG
INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT HAIL IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. THE PRESENCE OF
A WARM FRONT AND STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR SUGGEST TORNADOES ARE ALSO
LIKELY. INITIAL STORMS NEAR THE FRONT RANGE WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD
EWD INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 17035.
...IMY
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-
wbug1
Re: Severe weather today/tomorrow?
Thunderstorms popping east Texas, Lousiana, Florida and Alabama. No watches up. Severe TS warning in some of the areas now.
Last edited by wbug1 on Thu May 22, 2008 12:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Severe weather today/tomorrow?
Look out Greeley!!!
TORNADO WARNING
COC069-123-221800-
/O.NEW.KBOU.TO.W.0005.080522T1735Z-080522T1800Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1135 AM MDT THU MAY 22 2008
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DENVER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN LARIMER COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO
WEST CENTRAL WELD COUNTY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO
* UNTIL NOON MDT
* AT 1135 AM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS
TRACKING A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO NEAR GILCREST...OR
10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GREELEY. THIS STORM WAS MOVING NORTHWEST AT
29 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO WINDSOR...
SEVERANCE...MILLIKEN...JOHNSTOWN...GILCREST AND WESTERN GREELEY.
THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SAFE SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN
THE NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR
HANDS.
LAT...LON 4046 10505 4055 10483 4029 10470 4024 10486
TIME...MOT...LOC 1735Z 149DEG 25KT 4030 10483
$$
TORNADO WARNING
COC069-123-221800-
/O.NEW.KBOU.TO.W.0005.080522T1735Z-080522T1800Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1135 AM MDT THU MAY 22 2008
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DENVER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN LARIMER COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO
WEST CENTRAL WELD COUNTY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO
* UNTIL NOON MDT
* AT 1135 AM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS
TRACKING A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO NEAR GILCREST...OR
10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GREELEY. THIS STORM WAS MOVING NORTHWEST AT
29 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO WINDSOR...
SEVERANCE...MILLIKEN...JOHNSTOWN...GILCREST AND WESTERN GREELEY.
THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SAFE SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN
THE NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR
HANDS.
LAT...LON 4046 10505 4055 10483 4029 10470 4024 10486
TIME...MOT...LOC 1735Z 149DEG 25KT 4030 10483
$$
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Severe weather today/tomorrow?
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
High (90%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
Mod (50%)
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
Mod (30%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
Mod (50%)
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
Mod (60%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
High (80%)
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
High (>95%)
Should be PDS with those numbers.
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
High (90%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
Mod (50%)
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
Mod (30%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
Mod (50%)
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
Mod (60%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
High (80%)
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
High (>95%)
Should be PDS with those numbers.
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Severe weather today/tomorrow?
wbug1 wrote:and Colorado !?
Yep, the big stuff is out west. Not that common to see big tornadoes in the I-25 corridor...
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Severe weather today/tomorrow?
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1143 AM MDT THU MAY 22 2008
COC069-123-221800-
/O.CON.KBOU.TO.W.0005.000000T0000Z-080522T1800Z/
LARIMER CO-WELD CO-
1143 AM MDT THU MAY 22 2008
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MDT FOR WEST
CENTRAL WELD AND SOUTHEASTERN LARIMER COUNTIES...
AT 1140 AM MDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS CONTINUED TO REPORT A
LARGE TORNADO 3 EAST OF MILLIKEN. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
MILLIKEN...OR 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GREELEY. THIS STORM WAS MOVING
NORTHWEST AT 29 MPH.
LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
WINDSOR...SEVERANCE...MILLIKEN...JOHNSTOWN...GILCREST AND WESTERN
GREELEY.
THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. THIS
STORM IS PRODUCING STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES. IF YOU ARE
IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO...TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY!
THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM MDT THURSDAY EVENING
FOR NORTHEASTERN COLORADO.
LAT...LON 4046 10505 4055 10483 4029 10470 4024 10486
TIME...MOT...LOC 1743Z 149DEG 25KT 4035 10487
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1143 AM MDT THU MAY 22 2008
COC069-123-221800-
/O.CON.KBOU.TO.W.0005.000000T0000Z-080522T1800Z/
LARIMER CO-WELD CO-
1143 AM MDT THU MAY 22 2008
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MDT FOR WEST
CENTRAL WELD AND SOUTHEASTERN LARIMER COUNTIES...
AT 1140 AM MDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS CONTINUED TO REPORT A
LARGE TORNADO 3 EAST OF MILLIKEN. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
MILLIKEN...OR 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GREELEY. THIS STORM WAS MOVING
NORTHWEST AT 29 MPH.
LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
WINDSOR...SEVERANCE...MILLIKEN...JOHNSTOWN...GILCREST AND WESTERN
GREELEY.
THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. THIS
STORM IS PRODUCING STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES. IF YOU ARE
IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO...TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY!
THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM MDT THURSDAY EVENING
FOR NORTHEASTERN COLORADO.
LAT...LON 4046 10505 4055 10483 4029 10470 4024 10486
TIME...MOT...LOC 1743Z 149DEG 25KT 4035 10487
$$
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wbug1
Re: Severe weather today/tomorrow?
The storm with tornado near Fort Collins, CO formed in 20 minutes from almost nothing. I was looking at radar 20 minutes ago and there were just some light showers.
Clear strong and symmetrical TVS in that radar image. Looks like it will pass just east of Fort Collins, moving NNW to NW, or could just scrape the east side of Fort Collins, and the thunderstorm looks powerful otherwise.
Clear strong and symmetrical TVS in that radar image. Looks like it will pass just east of Fort Collins, moving NNW to NW, or could just scrape the east side of Fort Collins, and the thunderstorm looks powerful otherwise.
Last edited by wbug1 on Thu May 22, 2008 12:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Texas Snowman
- Storm2k Moderator
- Posts: 6179
- Joined: Fri Jan 25, 2008 11:29 am
- Location: Denison, Texas
Re: Severe weather today/tomorrow?
Wow, pretty pronounced hook echo with that Colorado storm...
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