Strongest June storm?

[Category 5]

The size of this on radar certainly indicates a large storm. That explains the surge added on top of the surge prone area it struck. Also, for a large storm, such a rapid drop from Cat 4 to Tropical Storm after landfall seems unrealistic.

[boca]

How can hurricane Audrey go from 145mph to 70mph in 6hrs.

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at19572.asp

[Ed Mahmoud]

I'd guess it started weakening offshore, as I suspect the heat content in the shelf water in the Northernmost Gulf in June is nowhere near the late August/early September maximum. Big systems that track close to Texas long enough also tend to start pulling in drier air off the high deserts South/West of the Rio Grande as well.


That is, in my opinion, a pretty well informed guess for an amateur, but I wouldn't mind confirmation or dispute from a subject matter expert.

[Stratosphere747]

I'd guess it started weakening offshore, as I suspect the heat content in the shelf water in the Northernmost Gulf in June is nowhere near the late August/early September maximum. Big systems that track close to Texas long enough also tend to start pulling in drier air off the high deserts South/West of the Rio Grande as well.


That is, in my opinion, a pretty well informed guess for an amateur, but I wouldn't mind confirmation or dispute from a subject matter expert.

Pressed for time... This should help with the presentation...

[Ed Mahmoud]

I'd guess it started weakening offshore, as I suspect the heat content in the shelf water in the Northernmost Gulf in June is nowhere near the late August/early September maximum. Big systems that track close to Texas long enough also tend to start pulling in drier air off the high deserts South/West of the Rio Grande as well.


That is, in my opinion, a pretty well informed guess for an amateur, but I wouldn't mind confirmation or dispute from a subject matter expert.

Pressed for time... This should help with the presentation...

That animation seems to suggest the eye was starting to open before landfall.

[Derek Ortt]

that radar signature does not look anything like a major

[Ed Mahmoud]

that radar signature does not look anything like a major

It had a fairly tight looking eye at the beginning of the loop, but it went downhill pretty quickly while still over water.


I'm guessing low heat content shelf water in late June.

[Ed Mahmoud]

From Jarvinen paper linked on page one of this thread, I'd say Audrey was probably a Cat 2 at landfall, despite his conclusion of a Cat 1.

2. The central pressure values and wind values from reconnaissance for the next 2 days are;
June 25, 989 millibars and 85 knots; June 25, 979 millibars and 75 knots June 26, 973
millibars and 90 knots. No more reconnaissance eye penetrations were made but eye
positions from radar were given and wind observations around the hurricane were taken.
Eye positions were also determined from the land based radar at Lake Charles, Louisiana.
The highest wind observation from the reconnaissance was reported just as the eye was making landfall. It was 95 knots and the aircraft was located 110 nautical miles southeast of the center. The last reliable pressure before landfall was taken by the Tanker Tillamook on June 27 at approximately 0400 Central Standard Time. It was about 21 nautical miles west of the track and reported a pressure of 969 millibars.
3. Land station minimum pressure values were: Lake Charles, Louisiana, 972 millibars; Port Arthur, Texas, 966 millibars; Calcasieu Coast Guard Station, Louisiana, 960 millibars; Cameron, Louisiana, 959 millibars; and Hackberry, Louisiana, 958 millibars.
4. The only reliable wind observations were the reconnaissance values given above and two reports from land locations. One from Orange, Texas reported winds over 100 miles per hour just before a dead calm. The other was from Lake Charles, Louisiana which reported winds of 105 miles per hour. The two land reports do not define the wind as either sustained or gust. It is possible that these are observed wind speed maximums as seen on a dial and may be gusts.

The pressure is close to normal Cat 3 pressure, but if the storm was expanding/pressure gradient lessening, it would have had less than Cat 3 winds. The eye looked to be deteriorating before landfall. But, even if the 105 mph wind was a gust, someplace must have come close to Cat 2 winds, I'd guess.

[Derek Ortt]

at what level was the 95KT found. If it was at 850mb and outside of the eyewall, the surface winds are 75-80% of that (even 80% at 700mb since it was not in the eyewall)

It suggests Audrey was a very large hurricane though

[Ed Mahmoud]

at what level was the 95KT found. If it was at 850mb and outside of the eyewall, the surface winds are 75-80% of that (even 80% at 700mb since it was not in the eyewall)

It suggests Audrey was a very large hurricane though

NHC's archives don't go back before 1958, and I don't have time at work to search for recon reports. But I'd bet a pro-met working in Miami with an interest in the subject could find it...

[KWT]

Yep i agree Derek that doesn't look like a major when it came close to landfall, the way the eye opened up seems to suggest it was decaying pretty quickly, if I had to put a punt on landfall strength I'd go with 95mph based on what I've heard.

What other landfalling systems had an open eye that were majors in the gulf before landfall?

[CrazyC83]

Looking at the radar and surface data, I would say 85 kt at landfall (thinking the maximum winds were not measured due to the sparse coastal population), and slightly weakened from peak intensity (I would guess 95 kt about 8-12 hours before landfall). Storm surge data alone would suggest Audrey was definitely weaker than Rita.

[masaji79]

Didn't Hurricane Ethel in 1960 weaken from 160mph to 80mph rapidly just before landfall? Although I always thought that the peak winds of Ethel were always too high.

[Derek Ortt]

Ethel's winds are laughable

They were derived from an ESTIMATE of 140KT winds at the TOP OF THE bl

Even if the 140 is valid, that only equates to ~105KT at the surface

[Stratosphere747]

Audrey was IMO stronger than a one at LF, but certainly wasn't near as strong as many believe.


Meteorological Comparison of Hurricanes Audrey and Rita

Compiled by:
Donovan Landreneau, Forecaster
Sam Shamburger, Forecaster

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lch/rita/rita_audrey.php

[Category 5]

Ethel's winds are laughable

They were derived from an ESTIMATE of 140KT winds at the TOP OF THE bl

Even if the 140 is valid, that only equates to ~105KT at the surface

I wish HURDAT would hurry up and do away with that 140kt nonsense. There's absolutely no way.

Audrey doesn't look like a major on radar, but it doesn't look like it's strengthening either.

[tolakram]

Look at Katrina's radar loop. For the amount of damage it did the radar is not that impressive and the eye is large and open on the south (west) side. I'm not sure I can tell from the old B&W radar image how strong the storm was.

http://www.lightecho.net/weather/hurric ... b_nor.html

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jetstream//trop ... naloop.htm

[Category 5]

Katrina was a weakening storm with an eroded eyewall.

Audrey appears to also have an eroded eyewall but on the east side instead of the south side.

It seems to match up with alot of GOM Hurricanes who have had their eyewalls eroded by dry air or other factors. Lili, Opal, Ivan, Rita, Frederic, Kate, Andrew (I think). All of those storms were weakening at the point of landfall.

[Opal storm]

It seems to match up with alot of GOM Hurricanes who have had their eyewalls eroded by dry air or other factors. Lili, Opal, Ivan, Rita, Frederic, Kate, Andrew (I think). All of those storms were weakening at the point of landfall.

The dry air and cooler SST's seems to be our shield against full fledged category 4 or 5 storms up here along the northern Gulf, but that doesn't stop them from usually bringing in a massive storm surge.

[Category 5]

It seems to match up with alot of GOM Hurricanes who have had their eyewalls eroded by dry air or other factors. Lili, Opal, Ivan, Rita, Frederic, Kate, Andrew (I think). All of those storms were weakening at the point of landfall.

The dry air and cooler SST's seems to be our shield against full fledged category 4 or 5 storms up here along the northern Gulf, but that doesn't stop them from usually bringing in a massive storm surge.

Thats because even if they weaken, that surge they already kicked up is already coming, plus storms like Katrina and Ivan were very large Hurricanes.