Joe Bastardi's 2008 Hurricane Forecast

[Category 5]

JB has some skill, I think, so we'll just have to wait and see.

His Philadelphia/Delaware Bay scenario is not made up and is featured in The Philadelphia Area Weather Book that was published sometime around 2002. It is within the realm of possibility, Isabel did bring a storm surge to Philly, but I can't say if a direct strike has actually happened since the city and region was settled in the 1640s.


*edited for clarity.

I have this book as well. I'd be more worried about the barrier islands of the Jersey shore though. The potential for death and destruction is huge.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Indeed a major hurricane (cat 3, or 4) directly hitting the Southern New England coast is rare. One effecting the Philadelphia/Delaware Bay area directly in the above mention fashion is even rarer. I’m not sure it has ever even happened before, at least in recorded history?

[boca]

Indeed a major hurricane (cat 3, or 4) directly hitting the Southern New England coast is rare. One effecting the Philadelphia/Delaware Bay area directly in the above mention fashion is even rarer. I’m not sure it has ever even happened before, at least in recorded history?

I agree if their was a hurricane traveling up the east coast its more likely to head NNE thru Long Island and Southern New England due to the westerlies. I don't think a hurricane turned NW and hit Philadelphia from the SE,it would be pretty hard at 40°N. Agnes in 1972 turned NW thru New York City as a tropical storm.

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at19722.asp

[Ed Mahmoud]

Well, large Northeast hurricanes are very infrequent, but they do happen. The law of averages suggests anyone predicting a hurricane in the next 10 years will have better than a 50% chance of being right. If Bastardi is correct about the upper pattern and the warm water close to the coast, this year might have a better chance (those still a slim one) than most years for a Northeast hurricane hit.


I've been an AccuWx subscriber for six years, and JB's pre-season progs, while not perfect, do seem to do better than random picks. The "JB human model", based mainly on analogs, seems to show more skill than climatology, although I've never sat down and actually quantified it.

[Blown Away]

JB calling for higher than average risk for the NE, can I assume he sees a more persistent EC trough this season?

[terstorm1012]

Indeed a major hurricane (cat 3, or 4) directly hitting the Southern New England coast is rare. One effecting the Philadelphia/Delaware Bay area directly in the above mention fashion is even rarer. I’m not sure it has ever even happened before, at least in recorded history?

A paleoclimate study I read indicated that it has happened along the Jersey Coast (cat 3+ that is) a number of times in the last 5,000 years. I can't find the link to it now though. So it is possible, just very unlikely.

It isn't something to worry oneself to the point of anxiety about, but it is still important to just be prepared for anything.

[terstorm1012]

JB calling for higher than average risk for the NE, can I assume he sees a more persistent EC trough this season?

This trough has seemed to persist since the beginning of the year. However I could be wrong and this is just the way I'm perceving things--but it's been wet and chilly all spring.

[Steve]

>>JB calling for higher than average risk for the NE

I watched the 90 second teaser update (from the 13th). He's got 2-3 named storms in the Gulf (possibly 2 hurricanes maybe a major). And he's going multiple landfalls for the east coast. Seemed as though Bernie was stressing systems forming close in this season. Those are often the years where we see multiple US landfalls (and generally weaker overall systems).

Bastardi has had good and bad seasonal forecasts since he started putting them out. I appreciate that he releases his seasonal outlooks, but you really never know. It's just something to watch and see if maybe he was onto some of the right ideas or whatever.

Steve

[KWT]

Its interesting to see that they think there wil lbe lots of close formers. Also interesting to see Joe is going for a very active season with regards to US strikes, prehaps a bit like his anolouge year of 1996 from the sounds of things.

[sponger]

No one has a clue. less active. normal and active is the best anyone including Dr Grey, can do.
2004 taught us that!

[Ed Mahmoud]

It isn't what I'd call an official stand yet, but on his afternoon update, Joe suggests early June development is possible in the Western or Central Gulf, with the Central Gulf somewhat more favored than the Western Gulf.


Joe says the 12Z GFS will change run to run (of course), but he thinks it is sensing something.

[Steve]

>>No one has a clue. less active. normal and active is the best anyone including Dr Grey, can do. 2004 taught us that!

People have clues.

Steve

[terstorm1012]

>>No one has a clue. less active. normal and active is the best anyone including Dr Grey, can do. 2004 taught us that!

People have clues.

Steve

yup the persistant trough set up...I don't think it'll last through the summer, but if it does, then there could be trouble.