Question??

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Rainband

Question??

#1 Postby Rainband » Mon Jul 07, 2003 10:08 am

Do they routinely change an invest to a cyclone in the recon outlook??

Plan of the Day

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
NOUS42 KNHC 071430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI,FL.
1030 AM EDT MON 07 JULY 2003
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 08/1100Z TO 09/1100Z JUL 2003
TCPOD NUMBER.....03-037

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA
FLIGHT ONE
A. 08/12OOZ
B. AFXXX 02BBA INVEST
C. 08/0945Z
D. 14.0N 63.0W
E. 08/1015Z TO 08/1730Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT.

FLIGHT TWO
A. 09/0000Z
B. AFXXX 03XXA CYCLONE
C. 08/2200Z
D. 14.5N 66.0W
E. 08/2230Z TO 09/0530Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT.

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES AT 09/1200Z
IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
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cycloneye
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#2 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 07, 2003 10:27 am

Good question rainband that I dont have the answer to it but maybe Derek,wxman57 or MWatkins may have that answer.
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Tip
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Cyclone

#3 Postby Tip » Mon Jul 07, 2003 10:36 am

After viewing the latest sat pics, I don't think the recon will find a closed circulation. Banding features are less impressive than yesterday and the system is elongating into a normal tropical wave. Just an opinion.
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OtherHD
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#4 Postby OtherHD » Mon Jul 07, 2003 10:39 am

I agree Tip. It doesn't look nearly as organized as it did this time yesterday. But I wouldn't be surprised if Recon found a small, tight LLCC and it gets upgraded. But should that happen, it'll probably just degenerate into a wave shortly thereafter.
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ColdFront77

#5 Postby ColdFront77 » Mon Jul 07, 2003 1:05 pm

The system was more organized yesterday at 11:40 AM Eastern Time, then was this morning at 11:40 AM Eastern Time?

Didn't it looked yesterday afternoon into the evening and into the overnight hours than it did yesterday morning?
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wxman57
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Just...

#6 Postby wxman57 » Tue Jul 08, 2003 6:02 am

It's just the NHC's sneaky way to say that they think they'll be flying into a TD or TS on the second flight.
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