10:30 pm model plots of Invest 95L

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Stormsfury
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10:30 pm model plots of Invest 95L

#1 Postby Stormsfury » Sun Jul 06, 2003 9:38 pm

Pretty tightly clustered consensus.

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chadtm80

#2 Postby chadtm80 » Sun Jul 06, 2003 9:46 pm

Pretty tightly clustered consensus.

Woa.. You aint kidding

Looks Gulf bound
Last edited by chadtm80 on Sun Jul 06, 2003 9:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#3 Postby southerngale » Sun Jul 06, 2003 9:50 pm

No joke!
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ColdFront77

#4 Postby ColdFront77 » Sun Jul 06, 2003 9:53 pm

This will be quite the system to track. Will be fun to watch the models with this being the first of what may very well be many. :)
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#5 Postby Guest » Sun Jul 06, 2003 9:53 pm

THe models agree this is head to the Yuctan and maybe the GOM. I'll be on pins and needles all week - my daughter is suppose to go to Girl Scout camp next week (Sunday - until the following Friday). Time will tell. Do the models lie?

Million dollar question? HUH?

Patricia
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#6 Postby ColdFront77 » Sun Jul 06, 2003 9:56 pm

Models are used for (or should be used for) guidance. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if these models split in the coming runs.
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#7 Postby Toni - 574 » Sun Jul 06, 2003 10:01 pm

ticka1 wrote:THe models agree this is head to the Yuctan and maybe the GOM. I'll be on pins and needles all week - my daughter is suppose to go to Girl Scout camp next week (Sunday - until the following Friday). Time will tell. Do the models lie?

Million dollar question? HUH?

Patricia


Yes they lie Ticka, but not all the time. :o If we wake up to a TD or TS tomorrow, which I really think that we may, then we should be watching the models real close, there is a real tight cluster already, we will have to see if that persists.
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#8 Postby wx247 » Sun Jul 06, 2003 10:48 pm

I agree with Tom. It will be interesting to see how the models handle the system as it develops further. So far... lots of consensus. We shall see if it holds that way!
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JetMaxx

#9 Postby JetMaxx » Sun Jul 06, 2003 11:04 pm

It wouldn't shock me if this system eventually threatens Texas or Mexico...it's not climatologically uncommon to see tropical storms and even hurricanes affect those areas during July, although major hurricanes are extremely rare (anywhere in the Atlantic Basin in July).

PW
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New to board

#10 Postby jj » Mon Jul 07, 2003 12:02 am

looks like i'm just in time for something intersting! went through Carla (yes, i'm that old - but i was a child) and the mythical Gilbert. glad to find to find this discussion board.
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#11 Postby JetMaxx » Mon Jul 07, 2003 12:07 am

I'm glad you are here jj! :)

I was born only about a month after Carla struck the Texas Coast, so I'm not a spring chicken myself :D

Take Care,
Perry
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Maybe Not Texast

#12 Postby wxman57 » Mon Jul 07, 2003 5:40 am

I'm not so sure I'd pick Texas or Mexico for landfall. If you have been watching the models closely, the trend has been farther north at day 5 with each run. After day 4, the ridge north of the storm is gone, leaving an open shot for a turn to the north, maybe mid Gulf coast (New Orleans) to the Florida Panhandle. Possibly even the Florida Peninsula. The stronger it gets, though, the farther west it might track. We'll just have to wait and see. But I can understand why the model guidance is so tightly-clustered - the steering currents are very well-established through day 4.

It sure looks like I'll have a busy week regardless of where it goes.
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#13 Postby Guest » Mon Jul 07, 2003 6:00 am

Thanks for the post wxman.
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#14 Postby vbhoutex » Mon Jul 07, 2003 7:41 am

Not to take anything away from what we will all be following this week, but behind this we have two more coming. One in the middle of the ATL is not looking impressive, but "together" for where it is and a HUGE ball of convection coming off of Africa today. It appears the "Cape Verde Wavy Train" has established itself early and is trying to keep a somewhat regular schedule. The question is whether the environment to the west of the "African train station" will be cooperative or not.

I have posted elsewhere my thoughts on what I think is TS Claudette or soon to be TS Claudette. I am reminded of Lili att.
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#15 Postby Colin » Mon Jul 07, 2003 10:59 am

Wow...they ARE clustered! :o Will be very interesting to watch if it takes that track or if it defies all models and takes another track?
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#16 Postby ColdFront77 » Mon Jul 07, 2003 1:15 pm

There have been model runs since these ones last evening. Same consensus?
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#17 Postby Colin » Mon Jul 07, 2003 3:14 pm

I don't know where I can find these types of maps...can I have a link?
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#18 Postby Stormsfury » Mon Jul 07, 2003 7:08 pm

Colin wrote:I don't know where I can find these types of maps...can I have a link?


I made the maps using the StormTrakker 6 program ... it's a Beta version and frankly it is the first time it worked for me ... so with Beta, you know the rest of the story...

SF
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