Possible Severe Event - 4/30 to 5/3

[KWT]

Yeah there are some photos and they did get a supercell with a funnel cloud. There was from what i heard a tornado in this cell but it was small and rain-wrapped. They also said the structure was very hard to see.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Tornado warnings already in far Northeast Texas and into Arkansas, this should be a busier day than yesterday in an area with more population, and more topography and trees to obscure approaching tornadoes, so the risk of injury is higher today.

[KWT]

Yep not the best chasing topography today and the best chance for getting chasable storms is going to be ahead of the squall line, though the squall line itself probably will also contain some severe weather like the winds last night.

[Ed Mahmoud]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0773
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1212 PM CDT FRI MAY 02 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN TN/KY...NRN/WRN MS...LA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 249...250...

VALID 021712Z - 021915Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 249...250...CONTINUES.

ADDITIONAL WWS MAY BE NEEDED EAST/SOUTHEAST OF WW 249. BUT...THE
PRIMARY TORNADO THREAT WITH POTENTIALLY LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS MAY
SHIFT INTO PARTS OF WESTERN KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE BY 19-20Z.

SEVERAL DISCRETE...POTENTIALLY TORNADIC...SUPERCELLS ARE NOW ONGOING
NEAR/JUST AHEAD OF PRE-FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENT ZONE NOW
BISECTING ARKANSAS IN NORTHEAST/SOUTHWEST FASHION. THIS IS
ALONG/JUST WEST OF A 50-60 KT SOUTHERLY 850 JET AXIS...WHICH IS
PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...AS A 90 KT 500 MB SPEED MAXIMUM NOSES NORTHEAST OF
THE MISSOURI OZARKS. BY 19-20Z...STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/ LARGEST
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE
LOW-LEVEL JET CORE EXTENDING ACROSS WESTERN TENNESSEE/KENTUCKY INTO
EXTREME SOUTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA. ADVECTION OF MID/UPPER 60S
SURFACE DEW POINTS INTO THIS REGION BY THAT TIME IS EXPECTED TO
CONTRIBUTE TO A FAVORABLE BOUNDARY LAYER ENVIRONMENT FOR TORNADIC
DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING THE RISK FOR ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES.

FARTHER TO THE SOUTH/WEST...INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN LOUISIANA...
WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND BACKING MID/UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF THE
NEXT IMPULSE PIVOTING AROUND THE MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW...INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO MORE UNCERTAIN
TORNADIC POTENTIAL. BUT...THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL REMAIN VERY MOIST WITH CAPE IN EXCESS OF
2000 J/KG...IN THE PRESENCE OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH SHOULD REMAIN
SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SUPERCELLS.

..KERR.. 05/02/2008


ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

[Ed Mahmoud]

This is pretty ironic, to be a trained storm spotter, and have a tornado come and hit your own home.

1621 1 NE HENDERSON RUSK TX 3217 9479
TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTS TORNADO ON THE GROUND NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF HWY 43 AND FM 1251. REPORTED THAT THE TORNADO HIT HIS HOUSE. (SHV)

[CrazyC83]

I'm REALLY surprised there are no PDS watches...

[snoopj]

All right. Normally I'm not heavily critical of the National Weather Service in my area (KEAX, Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO), but I had some major issues last night with their handling of weather warnings as the derecho passed through the Kansas City metro area.

The Kansas City Star's website just updated with a breaking story about how the KEAX officials estimate that some of the wind damage in the KC metro area (especially in the communities of Gladstone and Liberty) was the result of quick hitting tornadoes (estimated EF2/EF3 damage). Here's the article: http://www.kansascity.com/384/story/602007.html

Last night, I watched the storms roll into my area. Hell, 1-2 miles NNE of me, as the crow flies, is where some of the worst damage occurred. I had my trusty GRLevel2AE product rolling at the time and I could see a lot of low level rotation in multiple spots in the derecho as it marched through. There were good rotation runs all the way down to the lowest tilts of the radar imagery (down to about 2000 feet...for reference, my elevation is around 930 feet at my house). Storm Relative Velocity was picking up multiple couplets of close returns in opposite directions next to each other.

Why was there no tornado warnings issued for this area? The last tornado warning for the area ended around 1:30pm before the derecho moved through the city. This storm kept those warning signs to it (at least on my end) for quite some time after that last warning ended. It could be that I'm overly critical in hindsight to a hectic situation, but last night was not a very good night for my local office. Combine this on another cell earlier in the evening that did have a confirmed tornado that I thought the warning was extremely late on (the cell had a hook echo developed for about 10-15 minutes of radar long before the warning was issued).

Again, hindsight is 20/20, but I really think they (KEAX) missed something last night. I've seen warnings issued for far, far less than what I saw last night.

--snoopj

[CrazyC83]

Sad news: 7 deaths - and it is not even 3 pm...

[CrazyC83]

All right. Normally I'm not heavily critical of the National Weather Service in my area (KEAX, Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO), but I had some major issues last night with their handling of weather warnings as the derecho passed through the Kansas City metro area.

The Kansas City Star's website just updated with a breaking story about how the KEAX officials estimate that some of the wind damage in the KC metro area (especially in the communities of Gladstone and Liberty) was the result of quick hitting tornadoes (estimated EF2/EF3 damage). Here's the article: http://www.kansascity.com/384/story/602007.html

Last night, I watched the storms roll into my area. Hell, 1-2 miles NNE of me, as the crow flies, is where some of the worst damage occurred. I had my trusty GRLevel2AE product rolling at the time and I could see a lot of low level rotation in multiple spots in the derecho as it marched through. There were good rotation runs all the way down to the lowest tilts of the radar imagery (down to about 2000 feet...for reference, my elevation is around 930 feet at my house). Storm Relative Velocity was picking up multiple couplets of close returns in opposite directions next to each other.

Why was there no tornado warnings issued for this area? The last tornado warning for the area ended around 1:30pm before the derecho moved through the city. This storm kept those warning signs to it (at least on my end) for quite some time after that last warning ended. It could be that I'm overly critical in hindsight to a hectic situation, but last night was not a very good night for my local office. Combine this on another cell earlier in the evening that did have a confirmed tornado that I thought the warning was extremely late on (the cell had a hook echo developed for about 10-15 minutes of radar long before the warning was issued).

Again, hindsight is 20/20, but I really think they (KEAX) missed something last night. I've seen warnings issued for far, far less than what I saw last night.

--snoopj

Interesting, I figured it was 110 mph derecho winds that did most of the overnight damage...the damage patterns seemed to resemble straight-line winds.

[CrazyC83]

What is the likelihood of a second round of activity this evening?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Some very nasty weather across the Missouri area. Those were some
incredible winds. That had to be EF2/EF3 to my untrained eye.

[snoopj]

Interesting, I figured it was 110 mph derecho winds that did most of the overnight damage...the damage patterns seemed to resemble straight-line winds.

Apparently NWS found something that said otherwise in many spots. The articles claims they've identified multiple locations in which they believe it was tornado damage and not straight line winds. It would have had to have been extremely quick. In the past, we have had short lived skippers hit in the metro area (5/4/03 in Gladstone, for example....maybe a 1/2 mile on the ground, went from F1 to F4 damage immediately and then lifted).

Now, I know Severe Thunderstorm Warnings have list that tornadoes may form at anytime. Last night was just not a very good night in Clay County, MO. 9:30pm, with no severe weather in the area, our emergency management fires up the tornado sirens for a good 20 minutes. No explanation why or what for. All the main severe weather was 20-30 miles in the southern part of the KC metro area.

Again, hindsight. Had I been manning the KEAX office, I would have seen enough to warrant an upgrade to Tornado Warning.

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0775
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0305 PM CDT FRI MAY 02 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NRN/CNTRL IL INTO SRN WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 022005Z - 022200Z

TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF A WW.

A 90-100 KT CYCLONIC 500 MB JET STREAK IS NOW BEGINNING TO NOSE
NORTHEAST OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS...TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION. AND...MID-LEVEL COOLING/LIFT IN THE EXIT REGION OF THIS
FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION IN THE WARM
SECTOR OF DEEP IOWA SURFACE CYCLONE...ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CLEARING SKIES IN THE WAKE OF
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS HAVE ALLOWED FOR INCREASING INSOLATION WITHIN A
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER 50S/NEAR 60F SURFACE DEW
POINTS.

ALTHOUGH LATEST RUC GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT MIXED LAYER CAPE AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT NOW ADVANCING INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS IS STILL
WEAK...THIS COULD INCREASE TOWARD 1000 J/KG WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS. DEEPENING CONVECTION IS ALREADY EVIDENT ALONG/AHEAD OF
FRONT...AND AT LEAST A NARROW BROKEN LINE OF STORMS APPEARS LIKELY
TO FORM...POSSIBLY APPROACHING THE CHICAGO METROPOLITAN AREA BY
22-23Z. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE
LINE...WITH LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS/SHEAR ALSO LIKELY TO ENLARGE/
STRENGTH AS A 60+ KT LOW-LEVEL JET CORE LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY TOWARD EARLY EVENING. THIS MAY SUPPORT A RISK FOR
TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL/LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

..KERR.. 05/02/2008


ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...

41549055 42399038 42738894 42378815 41848781 40758765
40178772 39698850 39758923 40108980

[CrazyC83]

TORNADO WARNING
ARC035-037-093-022115-
/O.NEW.KMEG.TO.W.0088.080502T2023Z-080502T2115Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
323 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN CRITTENDEN COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
SOUTHEASTERN CROSS COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...

* UNTIL 415 PM CDT

* AT 323 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO NEAR EARLE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
CRAWFORDSVILLE...MARION...SUNSET...JERICHO...TURRELL...GILMORE...
JOINER AND BASSETT.

.IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS IN EXCESS OF
70 MPH.

.THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS A STORM SHELTER. IF NO
STORM SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE
BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE
BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

.IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

.STAY TUNED TO THIS BROADCAST FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND INFORMATION.
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER ONLY...CALL 1 800 4 3 2 0 8 7 5.

LAT...LON 3559 9007 3548 9008 3542 9018 3539 9018
3542 9008 3533 9009 3531 9016 3527 9016
3526 9010 3522 9010 3514 9039 3515 9050
3515 9051 3532 9062
TIME...MOT...LOC 2023Z 240DEG 37KT 3526 9046

$$

[KWT]

Well here we go again I suppose...

Sadly looks like Earle Ark and there is damage.

[CrazyC83]

Still waiting for NWS Memphis to upgrade to a Tornado Emergency...

[Category 5]

Still waiting for NWS Memphis to upgrade to a Tornado Emergency...

Doesn't look like that's going to happen.

[CrazyC83]

SEL2

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 252
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
430 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 430 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF CAMP
DOUGLAS WISCONSIN TO 10 MILES WEST OF JANESVILLE WISCONSIN. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 251...

DISCUSSION...WARM SECTOR E OF DEEP SURFACE LOW HAS DEVELOPED INTO
SRN WI. SHEAR AND MLCAPES TO 1000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS
INCLUDING HAIL AND TORNADO THREAT. STORMS WILL DEVELOP NWD TO WARM
FRONT.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 18030.


...HALES

[HURAKAN]

So far ...

[CrazyC83]

Quite an impressive outbreak to start off May...the good fortune in April (no deaths despite near average activity) cannot be sustained. 78 deaths so far in 2008 from tornadoes - almost at 2007's total.