Myanmar / TC NARGIS (TC 01B) Update: 84,500 dead

[Chacor]

IMD's forecast landfall is for evening/night, which would mean later (around 1200Z or later).

IMD is the official agency monitoring this Storm but their Bulletins/Advisories comeout after the event happens.

Uhm... how does that change anything about their forecast?

[Derek Ortt]

the microwave is showing that the eye is in fact very small... likely too small to be resolved. I feel more confident in my estimate of upper cat 4/lower cat 5 now

[Chacor]

RSMC- TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI

TROPCAL STORM “NARGIS” ADVISORY NO. THIRTY THREE ISSUED AT 0300 UTC OF 2 MAY 2008 BASED ON 0000 UTC CHARTS OF 2 MAY 2008.


THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM “NARGIS” OVER EASTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL MOVED EASTWARDS AND INTENSIFIED, LAY CENTRED AT 0000 UTC OF 2 MAY 2008 OVER EAST CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL NEAR LAT. 16.00 N AND LONG 92.50 E, ABOUT 350 KM SOUTHWEST OF SANDOWAY (48080) AND ABOUT 200 KM WEST SOUTHWEST OF PATHEIN (48094). CURRENT INTENSITY IS T4.5 RPT T4.5. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEED IS 80 KTS. SEA CONDITION IS PHENOMENAL AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 972 HPA. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BROKEN TO SOLID INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS BETWEEN LATITUDE 12.00 TO 18.00 NORTH AND LONG 88.00 TO 93.50 EAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SYSTEM.


FORECAST: THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO MOVE IN A EAST-NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AND CROSS MYANMAR COAST BETWEEN LAT. 16 AND 17 N BY AROUND EVENING/NIGHT OF TODAY THE 2ND MAY, 2008. 12 HOURS FORECAST INTENSITY IS T5.0 RPT T5.0.

BOB 01/2008/37 Dated: 02 May, 2008


Subject: Very Severe Cyclonic storm “NARGIS” over eastcentral Bay of Bengal.


The very severe cyclonic storm “NARGIS” over eastcentral Bay of Bengal moved eastwards and intensified, lay centred at 0530 hours IST of 2nd May, 2008 over eastcentral Bay of Bengal near lat. 16.0º N and long. 92.5º E, about 350 km southwest of Sandoway and about 200 km west-southwest of Pathein (Myanmar). The system is likely to move in a east-northeasterly direction and cross Myanmar coast between latitude 16º and 17º North by evening/night of today, the 2nd May, 2008.


Under its influence, rain/thundershower is likely at many places with isolated heavy falls over Andaman & Nicobar Islands during next 24 hours.



Squally wind speed reaching 45-55 kmph is likely over Andaman Islands and adjoining sea areas during next 24 hours. Sea condition will be rough to very rough around Andaman Islands. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea.

[Derek Ortt]

the good news is though, unless that outer band develops a wind max, the TC is very small. This should keep surge heights quite low.

Then again, if an outer eyewall forms, urge heights could increase by ~5 feet

[ugaap]

JTWC Nargis is put at 115 knots & 937 mb.

[Chacor]

FKIN20 VIDP 020920

DTG: 20080502/0600Z
TCAC: NEW DELHI
TC: NARGIS
NR: 18

PSN: N1600 E09330
MOV: E10KT
C: 962 HPA

MAX WIND: 90KT GUSTING TO 115KT

FCST PSN+ 12 HRS: 021800 N1630 E09500

OVER LAND

MAX WIND+12 HRS: 65KT

NEXT MSG: 20080502/1200Z

[ugaap]

Nargis strikes the Ayeyarwady Coast of Myanmar at 0900 UTC

[HURAKAN]

Landfall.

[Pedro Fernández]

Wooooooooooooooooow!!!! Look at this image. I have adjusted some values for remarking cloud tops...

[HURAKAN]

Continues to move eastward across the delta region.

[ugaap]

What is the possibility of Nargis moving along the Delta in Eastwards direction and entering the Gulf of Martaban?

[Derek Ortt]

likely to make a second landfall after crossing the delta

[Chacor]

The very severe cyclonic storm “NARGIS” over eastcentral Bay of Bengal moved further eastwards and lay centred at 1430 hours IST of 2nd May, 2008 over eastcentral Bay of Bengal near lat. 16.0º N and long. 94.0º E, close to southwest coast of Myanmar. The system is likely to move in a easterly direction and cross Myanmar coast near latitude 16.0º North within a few hours.

Under its influence, rain/thundershower is likely at many places with isolated heavy falls over Andaman & Nicobar Islands during next 24 hours.

Gale wind speed reaching 60-70 kmph is likely over Andaman Islands and adjoining sea areas during next 24 hours. Sea condition will be very rough to high around Andaman Islands. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea.

[CrazyC83]

My guess for the landfall intensity is 120 kt/934mb, in the start of another trend of rapid deepening.

[HURAKAN]

Not much weakening being showed.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Looks like 150 mph at landfall based on the satellite images. This is a very
severe storm.

[Derek Ortt]

it is moving parallel to the coast... this should keep the tidal surge very low. When storms pass by Hat moving in this direction, the ocean side surge is usually less than 5 feet

[Chacor]

The JTWC's 09z track called for a direct hit on Rangoon, Burma (Yangon, Myanmar). Not looking good for the capital.

[HURAKAN]

Very strong convection over the Andaman Islands. It looks like Nargis will make it to the Gulf of Martaban.

[Chacor]

JTWC has it at 105 kts and currently over water. Interestingly, it shows landfall only just happened at 12z.