Possible Severe Event - 4/30 to 5/3

[Bunkertor]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0765
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1004 PM CDT THU MAY 01 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN OK...SRN/ERN KS...WRN/NRN MO AND
CENTRAL IA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 244...245...

VALID 020304Z - 020500Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 244...245...CONTINUES.

THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE...MAINLY OVER
SERN KS/SWRN MO FOR THE NEXT 3 HOURS. HOWEVER...A SEVERE SQUALL LINE
IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP OVER WRN PORTIONS OF WW/S 244 AND 245
BEFORE WW EXPIRATION TIME/S OF 06Z. THEREFORE... REPLACEMENT WW/S
ARE EXPECTED TO BE FORTHCOMING IN THE NEXT 2-3 HRS.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD /EXTENDING
FROM CENTRAL KS SWWD NWRN OK AT 03Z/. MEANWHILE...A DRYLINE WAS
RETREATING AND WILL MERGE WITH THE COLD FRONT WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.
AS THIS OCCURS...RAPID SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF STRONG CONVERGENCE AND MODERATE TO HIGH INSTABILITY
/MUCAPE FROM 2000-4000 J/KG/. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE WRN PORTION OF WW/S 244/245 BETWEEN 04-06Z. STRONG LOW
LEVEL SHEAR WILL REMAIN PRESENT OVER THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THIS
ANTICIPATED SQUALL LINE /0-1 KM SRH AROUND 400 M2/S2 PER REGIONAL
VWP DATA/. THIS MAY SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF EMBEDDED TORNADOES
WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP WITHIN THE ANTICIPATED SQUALL
LINE. THEREFORE... ADDITIONAL REPLACEMENT TORNADO WATCHES ARE
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE ORIGINAL AREAS OF WW/S 244 AND 245.

OTHERWISE...RECENT OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS TRENDS SHOW GRADUALLY
INCREASING MUCINH OVER THE WARM SECTOR WITH RECENT RADAR DATA
SHOWING SEVERAL SUPERCELLS OVER OK HAVE DIMINISHED IN INTENSITY
RAPIDLY. THIS TREND MAY CONTINUE FURTHER NORTH ACROSS SERN KS/WRN
MO...BUT THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES SHOULD CONTINUE IN THAT
AREA UNTIL AFTER 04Z. THE THREAT FOR SVR EAST OF WW 244 ACROSS
CENTRAL MO/ERN IA APPEARS TO BE MARGINAL THROUGH 06Z...AS MUCAPE
VALUES REMAIN AOB 1000 J/KG.

[Bunkertor]

[Texas Snowman]

New tornado warning just west of Emporia. Looks like it will move up towards the Topeka area.


SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1134 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2008

KSC017-020515-
/O.CON.KICT.TO.W.0013.000000T0000Z-080502T0515Z/
CHASE KS-
1134 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CHASE COUNTY UNTIL 1215 AM
CDT...

AT 1130 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
TRACK A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR BAZAAR...OR 9 MILES SOUTH OF COTTONWOOD
FALLS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 32 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE...
NEAR SAFFORDVILLE BY 1150 PM CDT.

THE TOWN OF BAZAAR IS ALSO IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO.

THIS STORM COULD AFFECT TRAVELERS ALONG THE KANSAS TURNPIKE
BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 112 AND 116.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT FRIDAY MORNING FOR
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS.

[Texas Snowman]

Any damage reports out of N/C Oklahoma or SE Kansas?

[Bunkertor]

So ! Now i´m on the way to my lovely hometown Marburg.

Please fit im some nice pics and stay safe everyone.

[snoopj]

Lovely. I get woken up by my weather radio announcing a replacement Tornado watch. I look at the current weather and I see that marching bow echo heading my way. No point going back to bed when I know I'm going to be woken up in the next hour anyways. Heh.

[snoopj]

Bow echo coming into the Kansas City metro area. Leading with 70+mph winds.

[snoopj]

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 141 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... CASS COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI CLAY COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI JACKSON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI SOUTHERN PLATTE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI

* UNTIL 215 AM CDT

* AT 136 AM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS WERE TRACKING A SEVERE SQUALL WITH NUMEROUS REPORTS OF WINDS UP TO 75 MPH FROM TONGANOXIE TO OLATHE. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED WIDESPREAD DESTRUCTIVE WINDS UP TO 75 MPH STILL LIKELY AS THIS SQUALL LINE HEADS TOWARD THE KANSAS CITY METROPOLITAN AREA. AT 135 AM...THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM BASEHOR TO BONNER SPRINGS TO LENEXA TO FONTANA...AND RACING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH. THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION. PERSONS TRAVELING ALONG INTERSTATE 70 IN AND WEST OF THE KANSAS CITY AREA SHOULD SEEK SAFETY IMMEDIATELY.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR... KANSAS CITY...PARKVILLE...AND GRANDVIEW BY 150 AM CDT. RIVERSIDE...RAYTOWN...RAYMORE AND PLATTE WOODS BY 155 AM CDT. SUGAR CREEK...COURTNEY...PLEASANT VALLEY AND LEE'S SUMMIT BY 200 AM CDT. SMITHVILLE AND LIBERTY BY 205 AM CDT.

THE TOWNS OF STILLINGS...FARLEY...EAST LEAVENWORTH...WEST LINE... MAYWOOD...OAKS...KANSAS CITY INTL AIRPORT...OAKWOOD PARK...OAKWOOD AND UNITY VILLAGE ARE ALSO IN THE PATH OF THESE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION WITH WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE. MOBILE HOMES AND HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES ARE ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE AND MAY BE OVERTURNED. MOVE IMMEDIATELY TO A STURDY BUILDING AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 AM CDT FRIDAY MORNING FOR NORTHEASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI.

[snoopj]

Wow. The main wind just moved through. I felt my place shake when it rolled through initially. Off duty NWS employee around my area reported a wind gust at 75mph. Wow.

--snoopj

[snoopj]

Reports of many homes in the north part of the city (my section of town) that have roofs that have been blown off. As I said earlier, it shook my place when it came through. I've never felt that before from any storm I've experiences (non-tornadic).

Local channel weather personnel are using the word "derecho" to describe this event. It's still holding strong after a few hours now.

--snoopj

[simplykristi]

We had strong winds and heavy rain down in the south part of the metro. The wind was HORRIBLE. That's the worst wind I have seen since the June 8, 2005, storm. I can't believe that my power didn't go off. I don't see any limbs down. I will go check things out when it is daylight.

Kristi

[snoopj]

Yeah. Lots of 70-80mph reports of winds around the entire metro area. Anyways, the worst has past, I don't have any trees to worry about, my roof is still attached. Back to bed!

--snoopj

[simplykristi]

Yeah the worst has passed for us. I am listening to KSHB's coverage.

Kristi

[wx247]

Squall line will be passing through here within the hour. I will let you know what (if anything) happens here as it passes by.

[liveweatherman]

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 248
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
500 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2008
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 248 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
MOC007-019-027-029-051-055-059-065-067-071-073-091-093-099-103-
105-111-113-125-127-131-135-137-139-141-149-151-153-161-163-169-
173-179-183-189-203-205-213-215-219-221-225-229-510-021500-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0248.080502T1000Z-080502T1500Z/
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUDRAIN BOONE CALLAWAY
CAMDEN COLE CRAWFORD
DALLAS DENT DOUGLAS
FRANKLIN GASCONADE HOWELL
IRON JEFFERSON KNOX
LACLEDE LEWIS LINCOLN
MARIES MARION MILLER
MONITEAU MONROE MONTGOMERY
MORGAN OREGON OSAGE
OZARK PHELPS PIKE
PULASKI RALLS REYNOLDS
SHANNON SHELBY ST. CHARLES
ST. LOUIS TANEY TEXAS
WARREN WASHINGTON WEBSTER
WRIGHT
MISSOURI INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
ST. LOUIS CITY
$$
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...LSX...


TORNADO WATCH
Issue Date: 514 AM CDT FRI MAY 02 2008
Expiration: 800 AM CDT FRI MAY 02 2008

MOC009-015-039-043-057-077-085-109-167-185-209-021300-
/O.CON.KSGF.TO.A.0246.000000T0000Z-080502T1300Z/

TORNADO WATCH 246 REMAINS VALID UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR
THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN MISSOURI THIS WATCH INCLUDES 11 COUNTIES

IN CENTRAL MISSOURI

BENTON HICKORY ST. CLAIR

IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI

BARRY CEDAR CHRISTIAN
DADE GREENE LAWRENCE
POLK STONE

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...APPLETON CITY...AURORA...BOLIVAR...
CASSVILLE...COLE CAMP...EL DORADO SPRINGS...GALENA...GREENFIELD...
HERMITAGE...KIMBERLING CITY...MONETT...MOUNT VERNON...NIXA...
OSCEOLA...OZARK...REPUBLIC...SPRINGFIELD...STOCKTON AND WARSAW.






RADAR IMAGE

[CrazyC83]

From what I can read, about 50,000 customers without power as a result of the derecho.

[CrazyC83]

SPC AC 020601

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0101 AM CDT FRI MAY 02 2008

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EXTREME NRN LA...TO CNTRL
IL...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN TX TO THE SRN GREAT
LAKES...

...POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE MS VALLEY
TODAY...

STRONGEST BELT OF MID LEVEL FLOW...H5 TO 90KT...WILL ROTATE AROUND
THE BASE OF A VERY STRONG TROUGH INTO MO LATER THIS MORNING AS UPPER
LOW PIVOTS SWD AND DEEPENS OVER SCNTRL NEB. THIS DEEPENING PROCESS
WILL ENCOURAGE STRENGTHENING OF LLJ ACROSS THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY
REGION WHERE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY RECOVERY WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT.

EARLY THIS MORNING A SQUALL LINE WAS BEGINNING TO ORGANIZE ALONG
SHARP COLD FRONT FROM ERN KS...SWWD INTO CNTRL OK. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD CONTINUE TO EVOLVE DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AS IT IS SHUNTED
SEWD TO A POSITION ROUGHLY FROM WRN MO...SWWD INTO NERN TX BY
02/12Z. ALTHOUGH A SQUALL LINE WILL CERTAINLY BE WELL ORGANIZED AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...IT APPEARS DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR MAINTAINING DISCRETE EMBEDDED SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES ALONG THE FORCED LINE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS WITH THIS FRONTAL
BAND...HOWEVER ISOLATED TORNADOES COULD DEVELOP WHERE SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES ARE OBSERVED.

LATE EVENING MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION MAY
ACTUALLY DEVELOP WITHIN WARM ADVECTION ZONE FROM NRN LA...NWD INTO
SERN MO BY SUNRISE. THERE IS SOME REASON TO QUESTION THIS SCENARIO
GIVEN THE INHIBITION NOTED ON 00Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS THIS REGION.
HOWEVER...SUSTAINED LIFT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS DOES GIVE
CREDENCE TO THIS POSSIBILITY. IF CONVECTION DOES NOT BREAK OUT
AHEAD OF MAIN COLD FRONT THEN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
RECOVERY WILL BE MUCH GREATER ACROSS AR INTO MO/IL AHEAD OF WIND
SHIFT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MUCH MORE BUOYANT AIRMASS FOR
POTENTIALLY TORNADIC SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ACROSS THIS REGION CERTAINLY FAVOR MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE MODES GIVEN
THE STRONG COLD FRONT AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR PRE-FRONTAL STORMS
WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION ZONE. GREATEST THREAT FOR DAMAGING
TORNADOES SHOULD OCCUR ALONG AN AXIS FROM SRN AR INTO SRN
IL...ESPECIALLY IF BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS DESTABILIZES AS EXPECTED.
OTHERWISE...DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL SHOULD ACCOMPANY SEVERE SQUALL
LINE AS IT PROGRESSES EWD INTO THE LOWER OH/TN VALLEY REGION LATE.

FARTHER NORTH...DEEP SFC LOW SHOULD LIFT NWD ACROSS IA INTO EXTREME
SERN MN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. A NARROW WEDGE OF ENHANCED SFC HEATING
ACROSS IA APPEARS POSSIBLE BY LATE MORNING. IF THIS OCCURS THEN
BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY...SBCAPE TO 1000 J/KG...WILL BECOME
SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITHIN STRONGLY SHEARED/FORCED
ENVIRONMENT. IF THIS EVOLVES AS MODELS SEEM TO SUGGEST THEN A
NARROW AXIS FROM NWRN IL INTO NRN IA AND PERHAPS EXTREME SERN MN
WILL HAVE AN INCREASED RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES.

..DARROW/CROSBIE.. 05/02/2008

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1149Z (7:49AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[snoopj]

Yikes. Looks like my old neighborhood got banged up pretty well last night.

I still can't believe my house was shaking on the initial gust. Gave me a prime example on what a Category 1 hurricane can feel like. And all I got was a gust (nothing constant).

--snoopj

[Ed Mahmoud]

Attn: KWT

Did Mr. Fish and the UK storm tourists see anything good? Get any pictures/videos?

[Ed Mahmoud]

Starting early:

ARC023-029-045-141-021400-
/O.CON.KLZK.TO.W.0049.000000T0000Z-080502T1400Z/
FAULKNER AR-CONWAY AR-CLEBURNE AR-VAN BUREN AR-
822 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 AM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN VAN BUREN...SOUTHWESTERN CLEBURNE...NORTHEASTERN CONWAY
AND NORTH CENTRAL FAULKNER COUNTIES...

AT 819 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 8 MILES WEST OF
DAMASCUS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
DAMASCUS...BEE BRANCH...QUITMAN...GREERS FERRY LAKE AND GREERS FERRY.