Possible Severe Event - 4/30 to 5/3
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Possible Severe Event - 4/30 to 5/3
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
847 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2008
OKC113-117-020230-
/O.CON.KTSA.TO.W.0059.000000T0000Z-080502T0230Z/
OSAGE OK-PAWNEE OK-
847 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2008
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM CDT FOR PAWNEE
AND WESTERN OSAGE COUNTIES...
AT 843 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AND STORM SPOTTERS
CONTINUED TO TRACK A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO. THIS
TORNADIC STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES EAST OF RALSTON...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 30 MPH. A LARGE TORNADO HAS BEEN CONFIRMED...TAKE COVER
IMMEDIATELY!
SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...SHIDLER AND
PAWHUSKA.
IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO...TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY! IF
NO UNDERGROUND SHELTER IS AVAILABLE MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE
LOWEST FLOOR. MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES SHOULD BE ABANDONED FOR MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. AVOID WINDOWS!
LAT...LON 3687 9663 3668 9620 3636 9659 3649 9681
TIME...MOT...LOC 0147Z 227DEG 27KT 3651 9660
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
847 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2008
OKC113-117-020230-
/O.CON.KTSA.TO.W.0059.000000T0000Z-080502T0230Z/
OSAGE OK-PAWNEE OK-
847 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2008
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM CDT FOR PAWNEE
AND WESTERN OSAGE COUNTIES...
AT 843 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AND STORM SPOTTERS
CONTINUED TO TRACK A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO. THIS
TORNADIC STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES EAST OF RALSTON...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 30 MPH. A LARGE TORNADO HAS BEEN CONFIRMED...TAKE COVER
IMMEDIATELY!
SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...SHIDLER AND
PAWHUSKA.
IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO...TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY! IF
NO UNDERGROUND SHELTER IS AVAILABLE MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE
LOWEST FLOOR. MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES SHOULD BE ABANDONED FOR MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. AVOID WINDOWS!
LAT...LON 3687 9663 3668 9620 3636 9659 3649 9681
TIME...MOT...LOC 0147Z 227DEG 27KT 3651 9660
$$
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Re: Possible Severe Event - 4/30 to 5/3
Glad you are safe Snoopj. There are some scary supercells tonight.
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Texas Snowman
- Storm2k Moderator
- Posts: 6179
- Joined: Fri Jan 25, 2008 11:29 am
- Location: Denison, Texas
Re: Possible Severe Event - 4/30 to 5/3
KOTV in Tulsa has a storm spotter observing the tornado in Osage County.
It had gone through a cycle and actually lifted up a couple of times, but then has come back and he said that it may be turning more violent again with multi-vortexes. Also said that there was a large cone trying to descend from a wall cloud near the tornado on the ground.
Looks like it is over sparsely populated rangeland right now but town of Pawtuska (sp?) is in it's path in the next 1/2 hour or so.
It had gone through a cycle and actually lifted up a couple of times, but then has come back and he said that it may be turning more violent again with multi-vortexes. Also said that there was a large cone trying to descend from a wall cloud near the tornado on the ground.
Looks like it is over sparsely populated rangeland right now but town of Pawtuska (sp?) is in it's path in the next 1/2 hour or so.
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Texas Snowman
- Storm2k Moderator
- Posts: 6179
- Joined: Fri Jan 25, 2008 11:29 am
- Location: Denison, Texas
Re: Possible Severe Event - 4/30 to 5/3
New statement from NWS Tulsa...
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
858 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2008
OKC113-020230-
/O.CON.KTSA.TO.W.0059.000000T0000Z-080502T0230Z/
OSAGE OK-
858 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2008
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL
OSAGE COUNTY...
AT 855 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AND STORM SPOTTERS
CONTINUED TO TRACK A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO. THIS
TORNADIC STORM WAS LOCATED 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PAWHUSKA...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. A LARGE TORNADO HAS BEEN CONFIRMED...TAKE COVER
IMMEDIATELY!
SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...PAWHUSKA.
IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO...TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY! IF
NO UNDERGROUND SHELTER IS AVAILABLE MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE
LOWEST FLOOR. MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES SHOULD BE ABANDONED FOR MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. AVOID WINDOWS!
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
858 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2008
OKC113-020230-
/O.CON.KTSA.TO.W.0059.000000T0000Z-080502T0230Z/
OSAGE OK-
858 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2008
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL
OSAGE COUNTY...
AT 855 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AND STORM SPOTTERS
CONTINUED TO TRACK A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO. THIS
TORNADIC STORM WAS LOCATED 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PAWHUSKA...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. A LARGE TORNADO HAS BEEN CONFIRMED...TAKE COVER
IMMEDIATELY!
SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...PAWHUSKA.
IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO...TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY! IF
NO UNDERGROUND SHELTER IS AVAILABLE MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE
LOWEST FLOOR. MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES SHOULD BE ABANDONED FOR MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. AVOID WINDOWS!
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Texas Snowman
- Storm2k Moderator
- Posts: 6179
- Joined: Fri Jan 25, 2008 11:29 am
- Location: Denison, Texas
Re: Possible Severe Event - 4/30 to 5/3
Pawhuska is a town of about 3,700 people.
KOTV spotter said there is a tornado on the ground and another area of circulation to west.
KOTV meterologists are noting a rightward trend in motion, say that it will bring the storm very, very close to Pawhuska.
KOTV spotter said there is a tornado on the ground and another area of circulation to west.
KOTV meterologists are noting a rightward trend in motion, say that it will bring the storm very, very close to Pawhuska.
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Texas Snowman
- Storm2k Moderator
- Posts: 6179
- Joined: Fri Jan 25, 2008 11:29 am
- Location: Denison, Texas
Re: Possible Severe Event - 4/30 to 5/3
KOTV spotter has seen a series of power flashes, one for eastern circulation nearer to Pawhuska and others (4-5) with the circulation to the west. Several more as I'm typing this...
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Re: Possible Severe Event - 4/30 to 5/3
Texas Snowman wrote:KOTV spotter has seen a series of power flashes, one for eastern circulation nearer to Pawhuska and others (4-5) with the circulation to the west. Several more as I'm typing this...
Got a link ?
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Texas Snowman
- Storm2k Moderator
- Posts: 6179
- Joined: Fri Jan 25, 2008 11:29 am
- Location: Denison, Texas
Re: Possible Severe Event - 4/30 to 5/3
KOTV says that it appears that the stove-pipe like twister appears to be skirting Pawhuska to the west side...
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Texas Snowman
- Storm2k Moderator
- Posts: 6179
- Joined: Fri Jan 25, 2008 11:29 am
- Location: Denison, Texas
Re: Possible Severe Event - 4/30 to 5/3
The Chanute, Ks. area is also under the gun with several tornado warnings nearby...
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Ed Mahmoud
Re: Possible Severe Event - 4/30 to 5/3
Texas Snowman wrote:The Chanute, Ks. area is also under the gun with several tornado warnings nearby...
Pronounced hook approaching Chanute now.
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Re: Possible Severe Event - 4/30 to 5/3
I see the SPC got a new forecaster!
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1242 PM CDT THU MAY 01 2008
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN MO/SWRN IL SWD INTO
ERN AR/WRN TN/NWRN MS/NRN LA...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE AREA CENTERED
ALONG THE MS VALLEY...
CORRECTED WORDING WITHIN THE MODERATE RISK HEADLINE
...SYNOPSIS...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW CENTERED ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY IN
THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD TOWARD THE MO VALLEY WITH
TIME. AS THIS OCCURS...SURFACE COLD FRONT -- TRAILING SSWWD FROM A
LOW INVOF THE MID MO VALLEY -- WILL ALSO PROGRESS EWD/SEWD...MOVING
INTO/ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY REGION WHILE SHIFTING MORE SLOWLY SEWD
ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION AND VICINITY.
ALONG WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR AS A RESULT OF STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND
FIELD ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER SYSTEM...PERSISTENT NWD FLUX OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH FAIRLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALOFT
SHOULD YIELD AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR A POTENTIALLY-SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER EVENT -- CENTERED ON THE MID MS VALLEY REGION.
...MS VALLEY REGION FROM SRN WI/ERN IA SWD TO E TX/MS/LA...
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ALONG THE
SURFACE FRONT -- LIKELY FROM NRN AND WRN MO SWD TOWARD ERN OK.
THESE STORMS -- AIDED BY MOISTENING/DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT AND
FAVORABLE SHER -- WILL LIKELY REMAIN LOCALLY SEVERE THROUGH THE
MORNING. BY EARLY AFTERNOON...COMBINATION OF WARM SECTOR HEATING
AND MOISTENING BENEATH FAVORABLY-STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD
ALLOW ONGOING STORMS TO INCREASE IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.
THOUGH STRONGEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SPREAD ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA...SHEAR MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WILL LIKELY
EXTEND ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE WARM SECTOR -- FROM E TX/NRN
LA/WRN MS NWD. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT THE MOST FAVORABLE
SHEAR/INSTABILITY COMBINATION WILL EXIST BETWEEN 02/21Z AND 03/03Z
FROM ROUGHLY CENTRAL IL/SERN MO SWD ACROSS ERN AR/NWRN MS. ALONG
WITH POTENTIALLY A MORE LINEAR ZONE OF STORMS -- WITH EMBEDDED
ROTATION -- INVOF THE SURFACE FRONT...MORE ISOLATED STORMS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR INVOF MORE SUBTLE
BOUNDARIES. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND DEWPOINTS WELL
INTO THE 60S ACROSS A LARGE AREA...TORNADOES -- A FEW POTENTIALLY
STRONG/LONG-LIVED -- ARE ANTICIPATED. DEGREE OF INSTABILITY ALSO
SUPPORTS LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS WITH
LONG-LIVED/WELL-ORGANIZED STORMS -- BOTH LINEAR AND CELLULAR.
CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE SHIFTING EWD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY THROUGH
THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT...AND THOUGH A SLOW DECREASE IN SEVERE THREAT
IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...SOME THREAT WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH 03/12Z.
...IA/SRN WI/NRN IL EWD INTO SRN LOWER MI/NWRN OH...
WHILE LESSER INSTABILITY IS FORECAST ACROSS THIS REGION COMPARED TO
AREAS FURTHER S...SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR
SEVERE/SUPERCELL STORMS. WITH LOW-LEVEL FLOW BACKED NEAR/E OF
SURFACE LOW ACROSS IA DURING THE AFTERNOON...TORNADO THREAT MAY
EXTEND NWWD INTO THIS REGION DESPITE THE LIKELIHOOD OF LESSER
INSTABILITY. OTHER SEVERE/SUPERCELL STORMS WILL LIKELY OCCUR EWD
ACROSS THE MIDWEST/LOWER GREAT LAKES...WHERE PERSISTENT WARM
ADVECTION IS ANTICIPATED.
..SELECT A FORECASTER.. 05/01/2008
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1242 PM CDT THU MAY 01 2008
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN MO/SWRN IL SWD INTO
ERN AR/WRN TN/NWRN MS/NRN LA...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE AREA CENTERED
ALONG THE MS VALLEY...
CORRECTED WORDING WITHIN THE MODERATE RISK HEADLINE
...SYNOPSIS...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW CENTERED ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY IN
THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD TOWARD THE MO VALLEY WITH
TIME. AS THIS OCCURS...SURFACE COLD FRONT -- TRAILING SSWWD FROM A
LOW INVOF THE MID MO VALLEY -- WILL ALSO PROGRESS EWD/SEWD...MOVING
INTO/ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY REGION WHILE SHIFTING MORE SLOWLY SEWD
ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION AND VICINITY.
ALONG WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR AS A RESULT OF STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND
FIELD ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER SYSTEM...PERSISTENT NWD FLUX OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH FAIRLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALOFT
SHOULD YIELD AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR A POTENTIALLY-SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER EVENT -- CENTERED ON THE MID MS VALLEY REGION.
...MS VALLEY REGION FROM SRN WI/ERN IA SWD TO E TX/MS/LA...
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ALONG THE
SURFACE FRONT -- LIKELY FROM NRN AND WRN MO SWD TOWARD ERN OK.
THESE STORMS -- AIDED BY MOISTENING/DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT AND
FAVORABLE SHER -- WILL LIKELY REMAIN LOCALLY SEVERE THROUGH THE
MORNING. BY EARLY AFTERNOON...COMBINATION OF WARM SECTOR HEATING
AND MOISTENING BENEATH FAVORABLY-STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD
ALLOW ONGOING STORMS TO INCREASE IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.
THOUGH STRONGEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SPREAD ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA...SHEAR MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WILL LIKELY
EXTEND ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE WARM SECTOR -- FROM E TX/NRN
LA/WRN MS NWD. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT THE MOST FAVORABLE
SHEAR/INSTABILITY COMBINATION WILL EXIST BETWEEN 02/21Z AND 03/03Z
FROM ROUGHLY CENTRAL IL/SERN MO SWD ACROSS ERN AR/NWRN MS. ALONG
WITH POTENTIALLY A MORE LINEAR ZONE OF STORMS -- WITH EMBEDDED
ROTATION -- INVOF THE SURFACE FRONT...MORE ISOLATED STORMS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR INVOF MORE SUBTLE
BOUNDARIES. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND DEWPOINTS WELL
INTO THE 60S ACROSS A LARGE AREA...TORNADOES -- A FEW POTENTIALLY
STRONG/LONG-LIVED -- ARE ANTICIPATED. DEGREE OF INSTABILITY ALSO
SUPPORTS LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS WITH
LONG-LIVED/WELL-ORGANIZED STORMS -- BOTH LINEAR AND CELLULAR.
CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE SHIFTING EWD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY THROUGH
THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT...AND THOUGH A SLOW DECREASE IN SEVERE THREAT
IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...SOME THREAT WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH 03/12Z.
...IA/SRN WI/NRN IL EWD INTO SRN LOWER MI/NWRN OH...
WHILE LESSER INSTABILITY IS FORECAST ACROSS THIS REGION COMPARED TO
AREAS FURTHER S...SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR
SEVERE/SUPERCELL STORMS. WITH LOW-LEVEL FLOW BACKED NEAR/E OF
SURFACE LOW ACROSS IA DURING THE AFTERNOON...TORNADO THREAT MAY
EXTEND NWWD INTO THIS REGION DESPITE THE LIKELIHOOD OF LESSER
INSTABILITY. OTHER SEVERE/SUPERCELL STORMS WILL LIKELY OCCUR EWD
ACROSS THE MIDWEST/LOWER GREAT LAKES...WHERE PERSISTENT WARM
ADVECTION IS ANTICIPATED.
..SELECT A FORECASTER.. 05/01/2008
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