Severe weather/outbreak? - April 23-25
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
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- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Should have been a Tornado Watch IMO:
SEL1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 231
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
130 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN IOWA
WESTERN INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS
CENTRAL INTO NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 130 PM UNTIL 800
PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF ROCKFORD ILLINOIS TO 50 MILES EAST OF COLUMBIA
MISSOURI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND DEVELOP ENEWD ACROSS WW ALONG STRONG SURFACE COLD
FRONT NOW MOVING INTO ERN IA/CENTRAL MO. STRONG ASCENT AND MARGINAL
INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT BROKEN LINE OF STORMS...WITH SUFFICIENT
SHEAR FOR SMALL LINES AND A FEW SUPERCELLS. PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT
WILL BE MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL INITIALLY...ALTHOUGH POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AND EVEN A BRIEF TORNADO WILL LIKELY INCREASE THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 25035.
...EVANS
SEL1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 231
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
130 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN IOWA
WESTERN INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS
CENTRAL INTO NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 130 PM UNTIL 800
PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF ROCKFORD ILLINOIS TO 50 MILES EAST OF COLUMBIA
MISSOURI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND DEVELOP ENEWD ACROSS WW ALONG STRONG SURFACE COLD
FRONT NOW MOVING INTO ERN IA/CENTRAL MO. STRONG ASCENT AND MARGINAL
INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT BROKEN LINE OF STORMS...WITH SUFFICIENT
SHEAR FOR SMALL LINES AND A FEW SUPERCELLS. PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT
WILL BE MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL INITIALLY...ALTHOUGH POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AND EVEN A BRIEF TORNADO WILL LIKELY INCREASE THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 25035.
...EVANS
Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.
WOUS64 KWNS 251824
WOU1
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 231
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
130 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2008
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 231 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
IAC031-045-057-061-087-095-097-101-103-105-107-111-113-115-139-
163-177-183-260100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0231.080425T1830Z-080426T0100Z/
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CEDAR CLINTON DES MOINES
DUBUQUE HENRY IOWA
JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON
JONES KEOKUK LEE
LINN LOUISA MUSCATINE
SCOTT VAN BUREN WASHINGTON
ILC001-007-009-011-013-015-017-037-057-061-067-071-073-083-085-
095-099-103-105-107-109-113-117-123-125-129-131-137-141-143-149-
155-161-167-169-171-175-177-179-187-195-201-203-260100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0231.080425T1830Z-080426T0100Z/
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BOONE BROWN
BUREAU CALHOUN CARROLL
CASS DEKALB FULTON
GREENE HANCOCK HENDERSON
HENRY JERSEY JO DAVIESS
KNOX LA SALLE LEE
LIVINGSTON LOGAN MACOUPIN
MARSHALL MASON MCDONOUGH
MCLEAN MENARD MERCER
MORGAN OGLE PEORIA
PIKE PUTNAM ROCK ISLAND
SANGAMON SCHUYLER SCOTT
STARK STEPHENSON TAZEWELL
WARREN WHITESIDE WINNEBAGO
WOODFORD
MOC007-019-027-045-051-103-111-113-127-135-137-139-163-173-199-
205-260100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0231.080425T1830Z-080426T0100Z/
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUDRAIN BOONE CALLAWAY
CLARK COLE KNOX
LEWIS LINCOLN MARION
MONITEAU MONROE MONTGOMERY
PIKE RALLS SCOTLAND
SHELBY
ATTN...WFO...DVN...LSX...ILX...LOT...
Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW1
WW 231 SEVERE TSTM IA IL MO 251830Z - 260100Z
AXIS..70 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
40WNW RFD/ROCKFORD IL/ - 50E COU/COLUMBIA MO/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 60NM E/W /39E DBQ - 38W STL/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25035.
LAT...LON 42408844 38818998 38819258 42409119
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU1.
Watch 231 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.
SEL1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 231
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
130 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN IOWA
WESTERN INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS
CENTRAL INTO NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 130 PM UNTIL 800
PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF ROCKFORD ILLINOIS TO 50 MILES EAST OF COLUMBIA
MISSOURI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND DEVELOP ENEWD ACROSS WW ALONG STRONG SURFACE COLD
FRONT NOW MOVING INTO ERN IA/CENTRAL MO. STRONG ASCENT AND MARGINAL
INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT BROKEN LINE OF STORMS...WITH SUFFICIENT
SHEAR FOR SMALL LINES AND A FEW SUPERCELLS. PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT
WILL BE MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL INITIALLY...ALTHOUGH POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AND EVEN A BRIEF TORNADO WILL LIKELY INCREASE THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 25035.
...EVANS
SEL1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 231
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
130 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN IOWA
WESTERN INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS
CENTRAL INTO NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 130 PM UNTIL 800
PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF ROCKFORD ILLINOIS TO 50 MILES EAST OF COLUMBIA
MISSOURI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND DEVELOP ENEWD ACROSS WW ALONG STRONG SURFACE COLD
FRONT NOW MOVING INTO ERN IA/CENTRAL MO. STRONG ASCENT AND MARGINAL
INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT BROKEN LINE OF STORMS...WITH SUFFICIENT
SHEAR FOR SMALL LINES AND A FEW SUPERCELLS. PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT
WILL BE MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL INITIALLY...ALTHOUGH POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AND EVEN A BRIEF TORNADO WILL LIKELY INCREASE THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 25035.
...EVANS
Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.
WOUS64 KWNS 251824
WOU1
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 231
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
130 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2008
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 231 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
IAC031-045-057-061-087-095-097-101-103-105-107-111-113-115-139-
163-177-183-260100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0231.080425T1830Z-080426T0100Z/
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CEDAR CLINTON DES MOINES
DUBUQUE HENRY IOWA
JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON
JONES KEOKUK LEE
LINN LOUISA MUSCATINE
SCOTT VAN BUREN WASHINGTON
ILC001-007-009-011-013-015-017-037-057-061-067-071-073-083-085-
095-099-103-105-107-109-113-117-123-125-129-131-137-141-143-149-
155-161-167-169-171-175-177-179-187-195-201-203-260100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0231.080425T1830Z-080426T0100Z/
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BOONE BROWN
BUREAU CALHOUN CARROLL
CASS DEKALB FULTON
GREENE HANCOCK HENDERSON
HENRY JERSEY JO DAVIESS
KNOX LA SALLE LEE
LIVINGSTON LOGAN MACOUPIN
MARSHALL MASON MCDONOUGH
MCLEAN MENARD MERCER
MORGAN OGLE PEORIA
PIKE PUTNAM ROCK ISLAND
SANGAMON SCHUYLER SCOTT
STARK STEPHENSON TAZEWELL
WARREN WHITESIDE WINNEBAGO
WOODFORD
MOC007-019-027-045-051-103-111-113-127-135-137-139-163-173-199-
205-260100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0231.080425T1830Z-080426T0100Z/
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUDRAIN BOONE CALLAWAY
CLARK COLE KNOX
LEWIS LINCOLN MARION
MONITEAU MONROE MONTGOMERY
PIKE RALLS SCOTLAND
SHELBY
ATTN...WFO...DVN...LSX...ILX...LOT...
Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW1
WW 231 SEVERE TSTM IA IL MO 251830Z - 260100Z
AXIS..70 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
40WNW RFD/ROCKFORD IL/ - 50E COU/COLUMBIA MO/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 60NM E/W /39E DBQ - 38W STL/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25035.
LAT...LON 42408844 38818998 38819258 42409119
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU1.
Watch 231 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.
0 likes
-
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re:
Bunkertor wrote:Hm, you can often see Tornado warnings to develop out of a severe thunderstorm watch. Does anyone know the reason ?
It's quite common, and there are several reasons:
1) Tornadoes can occur in any severe thunderstorm, local/small-scale wind patterns can spin up tornadoes unexpectedly.
2) When a severe thunderstorm watch is issued, the tornado risk is never zero (they always give a small number), just that they are generally too few in number to warrant a tornado watch (the main threats are wind and/or hail).
3) Sometimes patterns can change quickly and the atmosphere can unexpectedly turn favorable for tornadoes. (Usually when that happens, a tornado watch is issued shortly thereafter.)
It is common also to see severe thunderstorm or tornado warnings when there are no watches in effect.
0 likes
-
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0729
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0210 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...WI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 251910Z - 252015Z
LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA INDICATES SFC LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NWD AND
IS NOW INTO EXTREME SERN MN WHERE SFC TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO
THE 60S. DOWNSTREAM...WARM FRONT HAS RETREATED ACROSS SRN WI AND
AIRMASS IS BECOMING MORE BUOYANT ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE WARM
SECTOR. 18Z SOUNDINGS FROM DVN AND ILX SUGGEST EML HAS YET TO BE
REMOVED WITH SIGNIFICANT CAPPING STILL EVIDENT ESPECIALLY AT DVN.
HOWEVER...LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS ACTING ON THE WARM SECTOR...PER
RECENT EXPANSION OF BOUNDARY LAYER STRATUS...AND INHIBITION WILL
WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SRN WI OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...RADAR DATA ACROSS SERN MN
INDICATES A NARROW LINE OF FORCED REFLECTIVITY THAT EXTENDS FROM
MCLEOD COUNTY MN...SEWD TO STEELE COUNTY MN. LATEST THINKING IS
ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD NEWD OUT OF IA INTO SWRN WI...WITH
NEW DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ALONG AFOREMENTIONED LINE OVER SERN MN.
ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE SOMEWHAT OF AN ISSUE...IT APPEARS SEVERE
THREAT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS WI SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT.
ISOLATED TORNADOES...OR PERHAPS SOME HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS MAY
OCCUR WITH STRONGEST STORMS.
..DARROW.. 04/25/2008
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0210 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...WI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 251910Z - 252015Z
LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA INDICATES SFC LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NWD AND
IS NOW INTO EXTREME SERN MN WHERE SFC TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO
THE 60S. DOWNSTREAM...WARM FRONT HAS RETREATED ACROSS SRN WI AND
AIRMASS IS BECOMING MORE BUOYANT ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE WARM
SECTOR. 18Z SOUNDINGS FROM DVN AND ILX SUGGEST EML HAS YET TO BE
REMOVED WITH SIGNIFICANT CAPPING STILL EVIDENT ESPECIALLY AT DVN.
HOWEVER...LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS ACTING ON THE WARM SECTOR...PER
RECENT EXPANSION OF BOUNDARY LAYER STRATUS...AND INHIBITION WILL
WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SRN WI OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...RADAR DATA ACROSS SERN MN
INDICATES A NARROW LINE OF FORCED REFLECTIVITY THAT EXTENDS FROM
MCLEOD COUNTY MN...SEWD TO STEELE COUNTY MN. LATEST THINKING IS
ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD NEWD OUT OF IA INTO SWRN WI...WITH
NEW DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ALONG AFOREMENTIONED LINE OVER SERN MN.
ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE SOMEWHAT OF AN ISSUE...IT APPEARS SEVERE
THREAT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS WI SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT.
ISOLATED TORNADOES...OR PERHAPS SOME HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS MAY
OCCUR WITH STRONGEST STORMS.
..DARROW.. 04/25/2008
0 likes
-
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0730
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0215 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MO...NWRN AR...SERN OK...NERN TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 251915Z - 252045Z
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY EACH ARE FCST TO SLOWLY INCREASE
ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTN. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED
FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AND EVOLVE INTO A BROKEN LINE
ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS SW MO AND STRETCHING SWWD INTO SERN OK.
12Z RAOBS SHOW RELATIVELY WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPS /8-9 DEG C AT 700 MB/
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SUGGESTING THE REGION IS STILL LARGELY CAPPED AS SUGGESTED
BY THE UNDULATING APPEARANCE OF A WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECK OVER THE
NRN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...18Z SHV RAOB DOES SUGGEST THE
CAP IS WEAKENING ACROSS THE GENERAL AREA. STORM COVERAGE WILL
LIKELY INCREASE AS THE CAP WEAKENS FURTHER AND AS UPPER SYSTEM MOVES
CLOSER TO THE REGION.
THE STRONGEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ANTICIPATED TO LARGELY REMAIN
BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUT 30-40 KTS EFFECTIVE SHEAR SHOULD AID
IN STORM ORGANIZATION. MODEST INCREASES IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
SURFACE HEATING WILL YIELD MODERATE INSTABILITY /1000 - 2000 J/KG/.
ATTM...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREATS
AS STORMS BEGIN TO INTENSIFY.
..SMITH.. 04/25/2008
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0215 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MO...NWRN AR...SERN OK...NERN TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 251915Z - 252045Z
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY EACH ARE FCST TO SLOWLY INCREASE
ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTN. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED
FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AND EVOLVE INTO A BROKEN LINE
ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS SW MO AND STRETCHING SWWD INTO SERN OK.
12Z RAOBS SHOW RELATIVELY WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPS /8-9 DEG C AT 700 MB/
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SUGGESTING THE REGION IS STILL LARGELY CAPPED AS SUGGESTED
BY THE UNDULATING APPEARANCE OF A WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECK OVER THE
NRN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...18Z SHV RAOB DOES SUGGEST THE
CAP IS WEAKENING ACROSS THE GENERAL AREA. STORM COVERAGE WILL
LIKELY INCREASE AS THE CAP WEAKENS FURTHER AND AS UPPER SYSTEM MOVES
CLOSER TO THE REGION.
THE STRONGEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ANTICIPATED TO LARGELY REMAIN
BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUT 30-40 KTS EFFECTIVE SHEAR SHOULD AID
IN STORM ORGANIZATION. MODEST INCREASES IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
SURFACE HEATING WILL YIELD MODERATE INSTABILITY /1000 - 2000 J/KG/.
ATTM...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREATS
AS STORMS BEGIN TO INTENSIFY.
..SMITH.. 04/25/2008
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You was right, Crazy
=====================================
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 232
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
240 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2008
TORNADO WATCH 232 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
WIC001-021-023-025-027-039-043-045-047-049-053-055-057-059-063-
065-077-079-081-089-101-103-105-111-117-121-123-127-131-133-137-
139-260100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0232.080425T1940Z-080426T0100Z/
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS COLUMBIA CRAWFORD
DANE DODGE FOND DU LAC
GRANT GREEN GREEN LAKE
IOWA JACKSON JEFFERSON
JUNEAU KENOSHA LAFAYETTE
LA CROSSE MARQUETTE MILWAUKEE
MONROE OZAUKEE RACINE
RICHLAND ROCK SAUK
SHEBOYGAN TREMPEALEAU VERNON
WALWORTH WASHINGTON WAUKESHA
WAUSHARA WINNEBAGO
$$
ATTN...WFO...ARX...GRB...MKX...
=====================================
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 232
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
240 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2008
TORNADO WATCH 232 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
WIC001-021-023-025-027-039-043-045-047-049-053-055-057-059-063-
065-077-079-081-089-101-103-105-111-117-121-123-127-131-133-137-
139-260100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0232.080425T1940Z-080426T0100Z/
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS COLUMBIA CRAWFORD
DANE DODGE FOND DU LAC
GRANT GREEN GREEN LAKE
IOWA JACKSON JEFFERSON
JUNEAU KENOSHA LAFAYETTE
LA CROSSE MARQUETTE MILWAUKEE
MONROE OZAUKEE RACINE
RICHLAND ROCK SAUK
SHEBOYGAN TREMPEALEAU VERNON
WALWORTH WASHINGTON WAUKESHA
WAUSHARA WINNEBAGO
$$
ATTN...WFO...ARX...GRB...MKX...
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- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
SEL2
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 232
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
240 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 240 PM UNTIL 800
PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH OF CAMP DOUGLAS
WISCONSIN TO 20 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF JANESVILLE WISCONSIN.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 231...
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INCREASING/DEVELOPING
ACROSS WW THIS EVENING AHEAD OF STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY.
SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NWD INTO NWRN WI THROUGH THE EVENING WITH
TRAILING WARM FRONT SHIFTING NORTH INTO CENTRAL WI. THIS WILL
SUPPORT MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITHIN SUFFICIENT LOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR
FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS AND SMALL LINES OVER SRN AND CENTRAL WI...WITH
ATTENDANT THREATS OF ISOLATED TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND/OR ISOLATED
DAMAGING WINDS.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23030.
...EVANS
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 232
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
240 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 240 PM UNTIL 800
PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH OF CAMP DOUGLAS
WISCONSIN TO 20 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF JANESVILLE WISCONSIN.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 231...
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INCREASING/DEVELOPING
ACROSS WW THIS EVENING AHEAD OF STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY.
SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NWD INTO NWRN WI THROUGH THE EVENING WITH
TRAILING WARM FRONT SHIFTING NORTH INTO CENTRAL WI. THIS WILL
SUPPORT MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITHIN SUFFICIENT LOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR
FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS AND SMALL LINES OVER SRN AND CENTRAL WI...WITH
ATTENDANT THREATS OF ISOLATED TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND/OR ISOLATED
DAMAGING WINDS.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23030.
...EVANS
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- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Tornado threat increased to 10% in Wisconsin:
SPC AC 251937
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0237 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2008
VALID 252000Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN/EVE FROM PARTS OF THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWARD THRU THE SRN PLAINS....
...MID MS/LWR OH VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IMPULSE IS JUST NOW IN THE PROCESS OF TAKING ON
A MORE NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE TILT AS IT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AND...WITH THE MID LEVEL COLD CORE LAGGING TO
THE WEST OF THE MOIST WARM SECTOR OF SURFACE CYCLONE NOW MIGRATING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT
AS STEEP AS THEY COULD BE. COUPLED WITH CONSIDERABLE LINGERING
LOW-LEVEL CLOUD COVER BENEATH A SUBSIDENT/ CAPPING MID-LEVEL DRY
SLOT...PRE-FRONTAL MIXED LAYER CAPE IS STILL WEAK AND GENERALLY ONLY
MAXIMIZED IN A NARROW BAND ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING
NORTHEAST OF THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO THE SURFACE LOW CENTER.
THIS HAS SLOWED THE INTENSIFICATION OF ONGOING DEVELOPING FRONTAL
CONVECTIVE BAND...BUT RUC GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT MIXED LAYER
CAPE WILL PROBABLY APPROACH/EXCEED 1000 J/KG IN THE PEAK AFTERNOON
HEATING. IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR NEAR A 70+ KT
500 MB JET CORE...WHICH IS PROGGED TO STRENGTH EAST OF THE UPPER
TROUGH LATER TODAY/TONIGHT...EVOLUTION OF SEVERE SQUALL LINE WITH
POSSIBLE EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS...IS EXPECTED TO PROCEED ACROSS EASTERN
MISSOURI/EXTREME EASTERN IOWA INTO ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN/ EASTERN
WISCONSIN INTO EARLY EVENING.
IN THE WAKE OF AN INITIAL MID-LEVEL IMPULSE ALREADY LIFTING THROUGH
MICHIGAN...AND PROGGED INTO ONTARIO BY EARLY EVENING...VEERING
SURFACE FLOW IS REDUCING THE SIZE OF LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS BENEATH
35-40 KT SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW. AND...A STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL CAP
MAY CONTINUE TO INHIBIT ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN ADVANCE
OF FRONTAL SQUALL. THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING
THE EXTENT OF TORNADO POTENTIAL IN PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE CYCLONE.
BUT...LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL STILL BE LARGE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A
RISK FOR TORNADOES IN SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE AND PERHAPS
JUST AHEAD IT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN
WISCONSIN. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH STORM
DEVELOPMENT NOW OCCURRING IN ADVANCE OF INITIAL IMPULSE ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL
WILL EXIST WITH MOST STORMS...AND FAST SQUALL LINE MOTION WITHIN A
40+ KT SOUTHWESTERLY MEAN ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO WANE LATE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...BUT SPORADIC WIND DAMAGE/HAIL MAY CONTINUE IN
CONVECTION SPREADING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY
OVERNIGHT.
...TEXAS...
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS WEAK...BUT DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD BETWEEN
THE POLAR TROUGH TO THE NORTH...AND THE SUBTROPICAL STREAM TO THE
SOUTH...PROBABLY WILL ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NOW UNDERWAY
ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS. WITH
MIXED LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2000-3000 J/KG AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...PARTICULARLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT/DRY LINE
INTERSECTION SOUTHWEST OF THE AUSTIN/TEMPLE AREA...SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AS INHIBITION WEAKENS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL IS
LIKELY IN MOST ACTIVITY. AND...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WITH A FAIRLY
DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND LOW MID-LEVEL HUMIDITY LEVELS...COULD
PROVE SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED STRONG DOWNBURSTS AND SURFACE COLD POOL
DEVELOPMENT.
..KERR.. 04/25/2008
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 2001Z (4:01PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
SPC AC 251937
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0237 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2008
VALID 252000Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN/EVE FROM PARTS OF THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWARD THRU THE SRN PLAINS....
...MID MS/LWR OH VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IMPULSE IS JUST NOW IN THE PROCESS OF TAKING ON
A MORE NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE TILT AS IT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AND...WITH THE MID LEVEL COLD CORE LAGGING TO
THE WEST OF THE MOIST WARM SECTOR OF SURFACE CYCLONE NOW MIGRATING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT
AS STEEP AS THEY COULD BE. COUPLED WITH CONSIDERABLE LINGERING
LOW-LEVEL CLOUD COVER BENEATH A SUBSIDENT/ CAPPING MID-LEVEL DRY
SLOT...PRE-FRONTAL MIXED LAYER CAPE IS STILL WEAK AND GENERALLY ONLY
MAXIMIZED IN A NARROW BAND ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING
NORTHEAST OF THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO THE SURFACE LOW CENTER.
THIS HAS SLOWED THE INTENSIFICATION OF ONGOING DEVELOPING FRONTAL
CONVECTIVE BAND...BUT RUC GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT MIXED LAYER
CAPE WILL PROBABLY APPROACH/EXCEED 1000 J/KG IN THE PEAK AFTERNOON
HEATING. IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR NEAR A 70+ KT
500 MB JET CORE...WHICH IS PROGGED TO STRENGTH EAST OF THE UPPER
TROUGH LATER TODAY/TONIGHT...EVOLUTION OF SEVERE SQUALL LINE WITH
POSSIBLE EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS...IS EXPECTED TO PROCEED ACROSS EASTERN
MISSOURI/EXTREME EASTERN IOWA INTO ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN/ EASTERN
WISCONSIN INTO EARLY EVENING.
IN THE WAKE OF AN INITIAL MID-LEVEL IMPULSE ALREADY LIFTING THROUGH
MICHIGAN...AND PROGGED INTO ONTARIO BY EARLY EVENING...VEERING
SURFACE FLOW IS REDUCING THE SIZE OF LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS BENEATH
35-40 KT SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW. AND...A STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL CAP
MAY CONTINUE TO INHIBIT ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN ADVANCE
OF FRONTAL SQUALL. THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING
THE EXTENT OF TORNADO POTENTIAL IN PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE CYCLONE.
BUT...LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL STILL BE LARGE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A
RISK FOR TORNADOES IN SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE AND PERHAPS
JUST AHEAD IT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN
WISCONSIN. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH STORM
DEVELOPMENT NOW OCCURRING IN ADVANCE OF INITIAL IMPULSE ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL
WILL EXIST WITH MOST STORMS...AND FAST SQUALL LINE MOTION WITHIN A
40+ KT SOUTHWESTERLY MEAN ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO WANE LATE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...BUT SPORADIC WIND DAMAGE/HAIL MAY CONTINUE IN
CONVECTION SPREADING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY
OVERNIGHT.
...TEXAS...
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS WEAK...BUT DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD BETWEEN
THE POLAR TROUGH TO THE NORTH...AND THE SUBTROPICAL STREAM TO THE
SOUTH...PROBABLY WILL ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NOW UNDERWAY
ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS. WITH
MIXED LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2000-3000 J/KG AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...PARTICULARLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT/DRY LINE
INTERSECTION SOUTHWEST OF THE AUSTIN/TEMPLE AREA...SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AS INHIBITION WEAKENS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL IS
LIKELY IN MOST ACTIVITY. AND...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WITH A FAIRLY
DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND LOW MID-LEVEL HUMIDITY LEVELS...COULD
PROVE SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED STRONG DOWNBURSTS AND SURFACE COLD POOL
DEVELOPMENT.
..KERR.. 04/25/2008
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 2001Z (4:01PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
306 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2008
IAC087-101-115-183-252030-
/O.CON.KDVN.TO.W.0010.000000T0000Z-080425T2030Z/
JEFFERSON IA-HENRY IA-WASHINGTON IA-LOUISA IA-
306 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2008
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM CDT FOR WEST
CENTRAL LOUISA...SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON...NORTHERN HENRY AND EAST
CENTRAL JEFFERSON COUNTIES...
AT 302 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY NEAR
WINFIELD...OR 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF COLUMBUS JUNCTION...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. AT 306 PM...HENRY COUNTY LAW ENFORCEMENT RELAYED
A REPORT OF A WALL CLOUD IN WINFIELD.
OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO CAIRO
AND COLUMBUS CITY
THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE IN A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT OR INTERIOR ROOM
OR HALLWAY ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A BUILDING.
THIS STORM IS ALSO PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT FRIDAY
EVENING FOR EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.
LAT...LON 4129 9138 4117 9123 4098 9163 4108 9172
TIME...MOT...LOC 2006Z 233DEG 60KT 4117 9140
$$

TORNADO WARNING
IAC031-103-115-139-183-252045-
/O.NEW.KDVN.TO.W.0011.080425T2001Z-080425T2045Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
301 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2008
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CEDAR COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA...
SOUTHEASTERN JOHNSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA...
NORTHWESTERN MUSCATINE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA...
NORTHWESTERN LOUISA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST IOWA...
NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST IOWA...
* UNTIL 345 PM CDT.
* AT 257 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO NEAR LONE TREE...OR 11 MILES NORTH OF COLUMBUS JUNCTION...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 42 MPH.
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
WEST LIBERTY AROUND 315 PM CDT...
ATALISSA AROUND 320 PM CDT...
TIPTON AROUND 335 PM CDT...
BENNETT AROUND 340 PM CDT...
THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 80 IN IOWA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 247 AND 270.
THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE IN A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT OR INTERIOR ROOM
OR HALLWAY ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A BUILDING.
PLEASE REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER OR DAMAGE TO YOUR LOCAL LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY FOR RELAY TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
THIS STORM IS ALSO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL THE SIZE OF
QUARTER SIZE.
THIS STORM IS ALSO PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING.
LAT...LON 4171 9150 4189 9130 4174 9091 4135 9139
4142 9154
TIME...MOT...LOC 2001Z 221DEG 36KT 4146 9138
$$
ERVIN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
306 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2008
IAC087-101-115-183-252030-
/O.CON.KDVN.TO.W.0010.000000T0000Z-080425T2030Z/
JEFFERSON IA-HENRY IA-WASHINGTON IA-LOUISA IA-
306 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2008
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM CDT FOR WEST
CENTRAL LOUISA...SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON...NORTHERN HENRY AND EAST
CENTRAL JEFFERSON COUNTIES...
AT 302 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY NEAR
WINFIELD...OR 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF COLUMBUS JUNCTION...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. AT 306 PM...HENRY COUNTY LAW ENFORCEMENT RELAYED
A REPORT OF A WALL CLOUD IN WINFIELD.
OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO CAIRO
AND COLUMBUS CITY
THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE IN A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT OR INTERIOR ROOM
OR HALLWAY ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A BUILDING.
THIS STORM IS ALSO PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT FRIDAY
EVENING FOR EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.
LAT...LON 4129 9138 4117 9123 4098 9163 4108 9172
TIME...MOT...LOC 2006Z 233DEG 60KT 4117 9140
$$

TORNADO WARNING
IAC031-103-115-139-183-252045-
/O.NEW.KDVN.TO.W.0011.080425T2001Z-080425T2045Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
301 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2008
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CEDAR COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA...
SOUTHEASTERN JOHNSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA...
NORTHWESTERN MUSCATINE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA...
NORTHWESTERN LOUISA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST IOWA...
NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST IOWA...
* UNTIL 345 PM CDT.
* AT 257 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO NEAR LONE TREE...OR 11 MILES NORTH OF COLUMBUS JUNCTION...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 42 MPH.
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
WEST LIBERTY AROUND 315 PM CDT...
ATALISSA AROUND 320 PM CDT...
TIPTON AROUND 335 PM CDT...
BENNETT AROUND 340 PM CDT...
THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 80 IN IOWA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 247 AND 270.
THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE IN A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT OR INTERIOR ROOM
OR HALLWAY ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A BUILDING.
PLEASE REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER OR DAMAGE TO YOUR LOCAL LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY FOR RELAY TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
THIS STORM IS ALSO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL THE SIZE OF
QUARTER SIZE.
THIS STORM IS ALSO PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING.
LAT...LON 4171 9150 4189 9130 4174 9091 4135 9139
4142 9154
TIME...MOT...LOC 2001Z 221DEG 36KT 4146 9138
$$
ERVIN
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...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN LOUISA...NORTHWESTERN MUSCATINE...SOUTHEASTERN JOHNSON
AND CEDAR COUNTIES...
AT 320 PM CDT...TRAINED SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO ON THE GROUND
1/2 MILE SOUTHWEST OF ATALLISA. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY NEAR ATALISSA...OR 13 MILES NORTHWEST OF
MUSCATINE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 42 MPH.
THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
LIME CITY...ROCHESTER AND 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CEDAR VALLEY AROUND
330 PM CDT...
TIPTON AND 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TIPTON MATTHEWS AIRPORT AROUND 340
PM CDT...
BENNETT AROUND 345 PM CDT...

NORTHWESTERN LOUISA...NORTHWESTERN MUSCATINE...SOUTHEASTERN JOHNSON
AND CEDAR COUNTIES...
AT 320 PM CDT...TRAINED SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO ON THE GROUND
1/2 MILE SOUTHWEST OF ATALLISA. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY NEAR ATALISSA...OR 13 MILES NORTHWEST OF
MUSCATINE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 42 MPH.
THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
LIME CITY...ROCHESTER AND 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CEDAR VALLEY AROUND
330 PM CDT...
TIPTON AND 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TIPTON MATTHEWS AIRPORT AROUND 340
PM CDT...
BENNETT AROUND 345 PM CDT...

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Oh, fun, our first tornado watch. It's quite humid outside, but the sun wasn't out for long today. Sky is very dark right now, and we're getting rained on, but the severe stuff is directly to the west, and then to the southwest. I have rehearsal tonight and won't get to keep up to date with what's going on. Hopefully our stage manager will have access to a weather radio or something similar should a tornado develop while we're there....
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Re: I nearly forgot - my 700th post
Bunkertor wrote:so feel invited
Yay, thanks, Bunk! Reminds me..I have a bottle of wine that I picked up in Freiburg that I should probably pop open one of these days....
Wind's picking up a lot now. They extended the SVR to the west so it's just barely missing Madison by the north and west. This little bit will miss us I think. Not so sure about the stuff in northern IL and NE IA....
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Re: Severe weather/outbreak? - April 23-25
Not streaming, but weather updates with severe weather video can be found: http://www.nbc15.com/weather. It's possible they stream during Madison warnings, but I'm not sure yet.
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