That little system east of windwards looks like Iris

[cycloneye]

If any of you remember hurricane Iris a very small hurricane but reached cat 4 status as it made landfall in Belize.But I am not saying at all that this system will be a hurricane as I am focusing on the little area that it covers but it has a well established circulation.Little systems like this go ahead and develop rapidly or fade away also fast so let's see what will be the route for this system developement or not.

[Stormsfury]

Very interesting summation you bring up, Ceye ... That's the tricky nature of small circulations ... they can break down very quickly or they can spin up very quickly ... Small circulations are very, very susceptible to their immediate environmental surroundings and if this one capitalizes on a window of opportunity, it could develop very quickly ...

SF

[Ola]

You know what the difference is between this one and TD 2 and the last atl invest? This one as a better established LLC with 1009mb which is lower that those other two had. For that reason the convection has been able to regenerate around the center after it dies out and its not falling appart even after convection weakens. If we get a big flareup then pressure will go down and once it gets under 1008 then I dont see anything stoping it for a day or two. It wont get too strong because of marginal moisture but like I said, if it gets under 1008, it shouldnt weaken. It needs one more big flareup in the next 24 hours or it could just open up.

[Ola]

One more thing. It might be moving too fast. It could have a hard time stacking low and mid level circualations if it encounters any shear, even weak one.

[Stormsfury]

One more thing. It might be moving too fast. It could have a hard time stacking low and mid level circualations if it encounters any shear, even weak one.

Another good point ... the last I checked it was moving around 18 mph. Pretty fast generally to get something started ...

[Derek Ortt]

This more resembles Chantal than Iris

[Colin]

Very interesting points everyone... but like Ola said, it may be moving too fast for any development. Only time will tell..

[Steve H.]

Seems to be holding together rather well. There is some dry air in there but it is sucking moisture from the SW which the others didn't. The last couple of frames seem to indicate thta it wants to broaden out a bit (enlarge) somewhat and is gaining latitude slowly, which it will have to do in order to survive. I wouldn't follow the model guidance too closely. The Atlantic ridge isn't exceptionally strong, and may have some weaknesses in it. Could get interesting later this week.....or not! Cheers!!

[Andrew92]

This thing kinda reminds me of an early Lili even! As I recall, when Lili was forming, it took a while to initially develop, and shearing even opened Lili up, but when it got away from the shearing, look what happened...

Maybe I'm wrong. But if this thing develops, it could follow a similar path to Lili! I will say this: I doubt it gets as intense as Lili got by a longshot. Heck, I don't even know what will be in the western Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico if it gets there to start. We'll see, but right now, I will say no hurricane out of this thing.....weak tropical storm is my call at best.

Maybe it'll not even be as strong as Chantal ever was. Hope it doesn't develop, but if it does, I'm hoping it's nowhere near as strong as that one.

-Andrew92