Hybrid system off SE Coast?

[Ed Mahmoud]

I've highlighted key words.

The CMC and the GFS are absolute crap at predicting even a few days out, especially in April. I wouldn't get worried, enjoy this quiet while it lasts.

Nothing else going on, other than unusual coldness, this side of the Date Line,so we need to talk about something, plus there is always a chance, however remote.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Ok, this is on the cold side of the front, in rather cool air, so it isn't tropical in any way, but it looks like it has separated itself from the front, and it is over warm water, so I dare suggest it has some chance of becoming, relative to the cool air around it, lukewarm core. If there is such a thing.


Satellite loop

GFS supports a brief period of lukewarm core-ness

[HURAKAN]

[Ed Mahmoud]

Independent verification that I am not the only person looking real hard at anything that has even the faintest whiff of tropical/sub-tropicalness in the Western Hemisphere.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Way too cold for anything tropical. Most likely a Cold Core.

Hence the reason it is in USA Weather and not Talking Tropics.

Tropical Debate is fun.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I like it, it looks very pretty.

[Category 5]

Way too cold for anything tropical. Most likely a Cold Core.

Hence the reason it is in USA Weather and not Talking Tropics.

Tropical Debate is fun.

Yes it is, but this is a frontal system.

[HURAKAN]

[Ed Mahmoud]

It'd be nice to know temp and dewpoint at that buoy or ship near the center, to see if it is still frontal.

[HURAKAN]

More non-tropical than ever!!!

[Ed Mahmoud]

More non-tropical than ever!!!

It may be tied to the cold front by an occlusion, but if only this had stayed a bit further South, it might have had a chance. It is drifting up to the far Northern limits of the Gulf Stream now, and its window is closing.


But in April, one takes what one can get.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Of course, it was July or August, but in 1980, IIRC, Tropical Storm Charley formed off the mid-Atlantic coast from a frontal low on an occlusion on the cold side of the frontal system. It parked over the Gulf Stream for a few days, the cooler air modified over warmer water, it became sub-tropical, and eventually, IIRC, became a purely tropical system.


Granted, it might be 3 months early for that kind of thing.

[Category 5]

Frontal system + April = Frontal System

[HURAKAN]

Frontal system + April = Frontal System

Not always. Remember Ana in 2003.

[Category 5]

Frontal system + April = Frontal System

Not always. Remember Ana in 2003.

Granted, but this is showing zero sign of duplicating that, and in April, theres not exactly a bounty of favorable conditions to work with.

[HURAKAN]

Frontal system + April = Frontal System

Not always. Remember Ana in 2003.

Granted, but this is showing zero sign of duplicating that, and in April, theres not exactly a bounty of favorable conditions to work with.

If it happens once, it will most likely happen again. Nonetheless, I agree odds are very low.

[Category 5]

If it happens once, it will most likely happen again. Nonetheless, I agree odds are very low.

Absolutely, it's always possible, this just doesn't look like the one.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Yes it is, but this is a frontal system.

LOL I was joking when I said tropical