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southerngale · #1 Postby **southerngale** » Sun Jul 06, 2003 8:55 am

Nothing is supposed to develop here but I can't help but notice the convection developing around the ULL in the GOM.

Just an observation...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-ir4-loop.html

#2 Postby **wxman57** » Sun Jul 06, 2003 9:25 am

Oh, it's certainly possible for a TS to develop in such a situation - if there's enough time to build storms near the center and get the core warm. That can take days, though. This upper low should be moving inland into southwest Louisiana tomorrow night, though. Just not enough time.

Thunder44 · #3 Postby **Thunder44** » Sun Jul 06, 2003 9:28 am

Accuweather this morning thinks it needs to be watched for development.

#4 Postby **wxman57** » Sun Jul 06, 2003 10:08 am

Of course, <b>everything</b> needs to be watched for possible development this time of year. Nothing new there. Just standard talk for any system in the region in July.

Colin · #5 Postby **Colin** » Sun Jul 06, 2003 10:47 am

Accuweather? :lol:

Of course, it does need to be watched, but like wxman said, it should be moving into Louisiana, therefore it does not have enough time to develop.

Thunder44 · #6 Postby **Thunder44** » Sun Jul 06, 2003 11:00 am

This is the latest from Accuweather...

Storm Summary
Today's Discussion
July 6, 2003 11:09 a.m.
Currently, there is an upper level low pressure area just to the north of the Yucatan peninsula. A few showers and thunderstorms are associated with this activity. The system is forecast to move towards the northwest over the next couple of days, with any development slow to occur. Farther east, there is a large area of high pressure in the upper levels of the atmosphere over the Caribbean, which will keep systems from developing over the next couple of days. A tropical wave located near 63W and 10N is bringing showers close to the coast of Venezuela. This wave does not look impressive at the moment. Another wave located south of 16N and 48W is more impressive with some convection present. This will affect the lesser Antilles by Tuesday morning, and will have to continue to be monitored. A third tropical wave south of 15N and near 32W lacks convection at the moment.

I think they are more serious about development than you guys think.

#7 Postby **wx247** » Sun Jul 06, 2003 11:15 am

I am just curious... don't you need high pressure in the upper levels in order for a system to organize? Or did I dream that up?

Derek Ortt · #8 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Sun Jul 06, 2003 11:44 am

One thing about Inaccuweather

Grad students are paid more than are Inaccuweather mets. That should tell you something about the qualify of forecasters at Inaccuweather. The good ones go to NWS, private sector and the very good ones go to grad school. The worst end up at Inaccuweather

Stormsfury · #9 Postby **Stormsfury** » Sun Jul 06, 2003 12:29 pm

wx247 wrote:I am just curious... don't you need high pressure in the upper levels in order for a system to organize? Or did I dream that up?

No, you didn't just dream that up ... the healthier systems have anticyclones over the top of them which vents the system ...

Colin · #10 Postby **Colin** » Sun Jul 06, 2003 1:28 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:One thing about Inaccuweather

Grad students are paid more than are Inaccuweather mets. That should tell you something about the qualify of forecasters at Inaccuweather. The good ones go to NWS, private sector and the very good ones go to grad school. The worst end up at Inaccuweather

You're exactly right... I couldn't of said it any better than you just did!

#11 Postby **wx247** » Sun Jul 06, 2003 4:27 pm

Stormsfury wrote:
wx247 wrote:I am just curious... don't you need high pressure in the upper levels in order for a system to organize? Or did I dream that up?

No, you didn't just dream that up ... the healthier systems have anticyclones over the top of them which vents the system ...

I am glad I didn't dream that up, but then that just shows flaws in the Accuweather forecast...

This is the latest from Accuweather...

Storm Summary
Today's Discussion
July 6, 2003 11:09 a.m.
Currently, there is an upper level low pressure area just to the north of the Yucatan peninsula. A few showers and thunderstorms are associated with this activity. The system is forecast to move towards the northwest over the next couple of days, with any development slow to occur. :roll:

Farther east, there is a large area of high pressure in the upper levels of the atmosphere over the Caribbean, which will keep systems from developing over the next couple of days :roll:

. A tropical wave located near 63W and 10N is bringing showers close to the coast of Venezuela. This wave does not look impressive at the moment. Another wave located south of 16N and 48W is more impressive with some convection present. This will affect the lesser Antilles by Tuesday morning, and will have to continue to be monitored. A third tropical wave south of 15N and near 32W lacks convection at the moment. :roll:

[/b]

Stormsfury · #12 Postby **Stormsfury** » Sun Jul 06, 2003 4:36 pm

Garrett, in the case of that discussion. The high pressure is not only at the upper levels but at all levels in actually ... furthermore, that region is very dry as well ... looking at WV imagery ...

At times, well develop systems will develop their own anticyclone and the strongest systems can actually influence the environment around them ...

SF

#13 Postby **wx247** » Sun Jul 06, 2003 4:39 pm

Okay. Thanks Storms. I obviously have a lot to learn. I just thought it was a silly statement that was made by Accuweather. Of course, if I listened to Accuweather I would still be digging out of the 1,000 inch snows we were supposed to get last winter. :lol:

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