95L invest for wave east of windwards

[cycloneye]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Well here we have the new invest for this well organized system that may be TD#4 and maybe Claudette.

[Toni - 574]

Looks good this AM! Most of the convection appears to be out front of the spin though. We need to give it time to get it's act together today. At this stage of development looks like it has a good chance to show it's stuff!

[rainstorm]

looks to me like it is too far south, moving too fast, and its too dry. i think it will be a wave as it goes through the islands

[Guest]

Miss Anti-thesis of tropical weather - I think this one might just surprise everyone. It might not slam into the island as a cat 5 storm - but nevertheless its trying to get its act together.

Patricia

[southerngale]

There is dry air but basically no shear....hmmm....I'll think we'll be back in business before too long. JMO

Maybe I'll come home from church this week and find Claudette like I did with Bill last week. j/k

[mf_dolphin]

Lots of dry air in front of the storms. WV looks like the dry air may be encroaching this morning

[wxman57]

I think that the steering patterns in the North Atlantic have been "off" for so long that many have forgotten just where storms that reached the Gulf USED to form in the past. The Bermuda high has been so week in the past decade (for the most part), that storms were forming way up at 13N-15N and clipping the islands before heading out to sea. This system is far enough south to pretty-much ensure it won't be carried out to sea to the north. Interestingly, it's forming very close to where Lili did:

Lili, just after it developed near 10N/48W:
11.20 -50.40 09/22/12Z 30 1006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION

Now there have been cases of storms forming between 10N-11N clipping northern South America, but the current flow patterns (Bermuda High positio) would probably allow for a track toward 280 deg or so, enough to miss SA. I think that this sysem will probably cross the islands near Grenada tomorrow niight, probably as a 35-40kt TS (assuming the NHC ever upgrades it).

Shear looks minimal, and SSTs increase in the Caribbean, so it would be a "GO" for development there. The very tiny size if this storm means it'll have a better chance than a larger storm of avoiding any unfavorable shear areas that pop up.

In the long run, the BAMM doesn't look too bad, taking it close to eastern Honduras in 120hrs. But beyond that point, it's running out of ridge to the north, so I'd expect a NW turn (unless the ridge shifts west). Too early to say if it'll enter the southern Gulf next Saturday/Sunday or track across the Yucatan into the BOC then Mexico.

I may be heading into work shortly. I hope that this isn't a regular "Sunday thing".

[GulfBreezer]

SUNDAY is becoming a very interesting tropical day isn't it? I wonder if there is a pattern here?! J/K The GOM needs no more tropical moisture at all, much less winds! We have had enough, today is the first day in a while that the dopplar is clear. The way things have happened so far just show me that the GOM may see one if its most active years ever. What are the stats on GOM landfalls in one year? Perry, I know you have an answer for me!!

[rainstorm]

i disagree some. if a system goes into the carib south of 15n it will have a VERY hard time, especially this time of year. even if it were a cane now, i would expect considerable weakening as it got into the carib. lili formed much later in the season. maybe it will do something in the western carib. even if it is classified before it hits the islands, i expect it to be a wave in the eastern carib.