Wed., 9th of April 08 till Friday 11th outbreak-thread

[CrazyC83]

889
WWCN11 CWTO 111726
SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 1:26 PM EDT FRIDAY 11 APRIL 2008.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN ONTARIO...

TORNADO WATCH FOR:
=NEW= WINDSOR - ESSEX - CHATHAM-KENT
=NEW= SARNIA - LAMBTON.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE
LIKELY LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH A TORNADO THREAT ALSO.

THIS IS AN ALERT TO THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES AND
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS..LISTEN FOR UPDATED STATEMENTS.
IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES..TAKE IMMEDIATE SAFETY
PRECAUTIONS.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==DISCUSSION==
A WINTER STORM OVER IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE TOWARDS LOWER
MICHIGAN TODAY. A BROAD AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO.

TORNADO WATCH..THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A COLD FRONT. THERE IS A STRONG
POTENTIAL THAT THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REACH SEVERE LIMITS AS THEY
MOVE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE WINDSOR AND SARNIA AREAS WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY. THERE IS ALSO A THREAT FOR TORNADO
DEVELOPMENT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE WINDSOR TO
SARNIA AREAS AROUND MID AFTERNOON. THE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST PUBLIC FORECASTS FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

END/RUDDICK

[RL3AO]

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1231 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2008

ALC057-093-127-133-111745-
/O.CON.KBMX.TO.W.0082.000000T0000Z-080411T1745Z/
FAYETTE AL-WALKER AL-WINSTON AL-MARION AL-
1231 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1245 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN MARION...SOUTHWESTERN WINSTON...NORTHWESTERN WALKER AND
NORTH CENTRAL FAYETTE COUNTIES...

AT 1231 PM CDT...A TORNADO WAS REPORTED. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED
NEAR GLEN ALLEN...OR ABOUT 6 MILES EAST OF WINFIELD...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
6 MILES NORTHWEST OF KANSAS AND 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF CARBON HILL BY
1240 PM CDT...
LYNN...NAUVOO AND 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NATURAL BRIDGE BY 1245 PM
CDT...

[CrazyC83]

SEL7

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 197
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
130 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTH CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 130 PM UNTIL 600
PM EDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTHWEST OF JACKSON
KENTUCKY TO 45 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LONDON KENTUCKY. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 195...WW 196...

DISCUSSION...SUPERCELLS IN TN WILL SPREAD ENEWD INTO KY AS THE LOW
LEVELS DESTABILIZE IN THE WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTION.
MEANWHILE...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN STRONG OVER THIS
AREA...SUPPORTING A THREAT FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES...IN ADDITION
TO LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24045.


...THOMPSON


SEL7

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 197
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
130 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTH CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 130 PM UNTIL 600
PM EDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTHWEST OF JACKSON
KENTUCKY TO 45 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LONDON KENTUCKY. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 195...WW 196...

DISCUSSION...SUPERCELLS IN TN WILL SPREAD ENEWD INTO KY AS THE LOW
LEVELS DESTABILIZE IN THE WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTION.
MEANWHILE...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN STRONG OVER THIS
AREA...SUPPORTING A THREAT FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES...IN ADDITION
TO LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24045.


...THOMPSON


Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.

WOUS64 KWNS 111724
WOU7

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 197
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
130 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2008

TORNADO WATCH 197 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM EDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

KYC001-013-021-025-045-051-053-057-065-079-087-109-113-121-125-
129-131-137-147-151-155-167-169-171-189-193-197-199-203-207-217-
229-231-235-237-112200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0197.080411T1730Z-080411T2200Z/

KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADAIR BELL BOYLE
BREATHITT CASEY CLAY
CLINTON CUMBERLAND ESTILL
GARRARD GREEN JACKSON
JESSAMINE KNOX LAUREL
LEE LESLIE LINCOLN
MADISON MARION MCCREARY
MERCER METCALFE MONROE
OWSLEY PERRY POWELL
PULASKI ROCKCASTLE RUSSELL
TAYLOR WASHINGTON WAYNE
WHITLEY WOLFE


ATTN...WFO...LMK...JKL...





Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.

SAW7
WW 197 TORNADO KY 111730Z - 112200Z
AXIS..65 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
35NW JKL/JACKSON KY/ - 45SW LOZ/LONDON KY/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 55NM E/W /54NNE LOZ - 36SW LOZ/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24045.

LAT...LON 37888263 36618348 36618583 37888502

THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU7.


Watch 197 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.

[CrazyC83]

1705 2 N LAWRENCEBURG LAWRENCE TN 3527 8734 HOUSES DAMAGE/DESTROYED...TREES AND POWERS LINES DOWN...BUFFALO RD 2 MILES NORTH OF STATE RD 64. (OHX)

[Weatherfreak14]

Strong Rotation with the Tornado Warn in KY.



Still lotta Rotation with the one in TN

[Ed Mahmoud]

Forecast sounding in Hillsdale, MI, where my brother teaches college, looks quite favorable for tornadoes.

I just e-mailed him about the new watch.

[RL3AO]

206 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 230 PM EDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN MCCREARY...WAYNE AND PULASKI COUNTIES...

AT 202 PM EDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD.
THIS LIKELY TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR STEUBENVILLE...OR NEAR
MONTICELLO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 56 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
BRONSTON...BURNSIDE...GENERAL BURNSIDE S.P. AND QUINTON BY 215 PM
EDT...
ELIHU...SOMERSET PULASKI AIRPORT...FERGUSON AND SLOANS VALLEY BY
220 PM EDT...
GRADE AND RUTH BY 225 PM EDT...

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0637
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0115 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN MS...WRN/NRN AL...MIDDLE-ERN
TN...SERN KY...EXTREME NWRN GA.

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 195...196...

VALID 111815Z - 112015Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 195...196...CONTINUES.

SUPERCELLS WITH POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES ARE MOVING ENEWD-NEWD ACROSS
PORTIONS SSERN KY AND MID TN AND NWRN AL. AT LEAST 3 TORNADOES
ALREADY HAVE BEEN REPORTED DURING PAST COUPLE HOURS IN
LAWRENCE/MARSHALL/DICKSON COUNTIES TN...FROM SUPERCELL CROSSING
BEDFORD COUNTY TN AT 18Z. MORE TORNADOES AND HAIL ARE
LIKELY...ALONG WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING DOWNDRAFT GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WW
ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS ERN TN SWWD TOWARD CENTRAL OR
SRN AL DURING NEXT 1-2 HOURS AS
1. SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND MOVE NEWD OUT OF PRESENT
WW AND
2. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION...NOW DEVELOPING FROM SERN MS THROUGH SERN
AL -- ALSO MOVES NEWD AND INTENSIFIES.

FAVORABLE WEDGE OF UNSTABLE AIR AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY NARROWS
CONSIDERABLY WITH NWD EXTENT ACROSS TN/SERN KY...BUT SHOULD EXPAND
NEWD WITH TIME. MODIFIED MODEL SOUNDINGS AND RAOBS -- INCLUDING 15Z
JAN AND 17Z BMX SOUNDINGS -- SUGGEST CONTINUED SFC HEATING WILL
BOOST MLCAPES TO 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE OVER SERN MS AND S-CENTRAL
AL...500-1000 J/KG OVER NERN AL AND SERN TN...AND LESS THAN 500 J/KG
OVER NERN TN AND SERN KY. STRONGEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL EXTEND
FROM CENTRAL AL NNEWD...WITH 0-1 KM SRH REMAINING UP TO 500 J/KG
INVOF TN/KY BORDER...NEAR AND S OF RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. 45-55
KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN COMMON OVER ALL OF WW AREAS
ALONG/AHEAD OF PRIMARY TSTM BAND. MOST FAVORABLE BUOYANCY/SHEAR
OVERLAP IS FCST TO SHIFT SLOWLY NEWD ACROSS NRN AL...MIDDLE/SERN
TN...AND SMALL PART OF NWRN GA.

..EDWARDS.. 04/11/2008


ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...

32649076 33748888 35098744 36418610 37108463 37398347
37148312 36528358 35348449 34288528 31988684 30818846

[Weatherfreak14]

Nice Hook Now in Bedford Co. TN This has been a very consistant cell on producing strong rotation and a couple of confirmed tornados.

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0638
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0141 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN LOWER MI...NRN IND...NWRN OH

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 196...

VALID 111841Z - 112015Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 196 CONTINUES.

OVERALL TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY BE MORE LIMITED THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY IN THE WRN PORTION OF WW 196...OWING TO
MIXING OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW-LEVELS TO THE SURFACE. STILL...DISCRETE
LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS WILL POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

18Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE DEW POINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE
UPPER 40S AS TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER 70S FROM THE
AZO TO SBN...AHEAD OF COLD FRONT LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM BEH TO EVV.
DEW POINTS ARE AROUND 8 TO 10 DEG LOWER THAN 17Z RUC FORECASTS FOR
THESE SAME LOCATIONS. DESPITE A FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILE
/DEPICTED IN NORTH WEBSTER IND VAD/...THIS DEGREE OF VERTICAL MIXING
WILL LIKELY MITIGATE ANY SUBSTANTIAL TORNADO THREAT WITH TSTMS JUST
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.

FARTHER EAST ACROSS SERN LOWER MI/NWRN OH...SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE
BEEN MAINTAINED IN THE MIDDLE 50S. BUT AS SAMPLED BY 18Z DTX RAOB
AND RECENT ACARS DATA...A SIGNIFICANT DRY INTRUSION CENTERED NEAR
850 MB MAY VERY WELL RESULT IN SURFACE DEW POINTS DROPPING FURTHER
AS HEATING CONTINUES. AS SUCH...EXPECT THE GREATEST TORNADIC THREAT
TO EVOLVE IMMEDIATELY ALONG WARM FRONT /LOCATED FROM AROUND MKG TO
BAX AT 18Z/...WHERE AMBIENT TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS WILL BE
MINIMIZED.

..GRAMS.. 04/11/2008


ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...IND...

42758253 41278372 40508453 40428592 40518672 41388627
42418597 43158610 43808572 43838430 43828307 43548236

[Weatherfreak14]

I think today is really more of a bigger outbreak than it was yesterday. I say watch out in AL, TN and later GA.

[Squarethecircle]

I see a lot of rotating cells from TN down through western Mississippi. I'm surprised actually that a lot of them don't have TORs.

[RL3AO]

Nice looking cell is Mississippi.

[RL3AO]

431 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM EDT FOR MORGAN
AND ROANE COUNTIES...

AT 427 PM EDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD ON
THE MORGAN COUNY LINE. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR OAKDALE...OR 7
MILES SOUTH OF WARTBURG...MOVING EAST AT 33 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
PETROS BY 445 PM EDT...
OLIVER SPRINGS AND 8 MILES NORTH OF OAK RIDGE BY 455 PM EDT...

[RL3AO]

200!

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 200
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
505 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2008

Previous watch #200 dates

2007- April 29
2006- April 18
2005- April 23
2004- May 13
2003- May 1

[CrazyC83]

Coverage on ABC 33/40 showing a couple good cells...

[RL3AO]

Heres the three TORs in Bama.

[RL3AO]

Blount Co storm looks good

[RL3AO]

Doesn't get much better than James Spann

[CrazyC83]

Doesn't get much better than James Spann

I agree!