Tropical wave east of windwards is well organized

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jul 05, 2003 6:18 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg

That wave has increased some convection and it has a weak low pressure around 10n-48w at the time I am typing this post.Some models show this feature entering the caribbean as a strong wave but let's see in next runs what they show but the ITCZ has been active so early this season and that may signal a cape verde season that may be more active than the past 3 years.

Ola · #2 Postby **Ola** » Sat Jul 05, 2003 6:29 pm

Yes Cyc, I was watching that too, in the last few frames from visible before night fell you could see what looked like a weak llc forming. Convection has increased some, even though its nothing impresive yet. NHC mentioned it on their outlook but said significant development is not anticipated. Is there quickscat showing anything yet?

Stormsfury · #3 Postby **Stormsfury** » Sat Jul 05, 2003 6:56 pm

QuikScat Scattermeter winds are inconclusive at this time ... given lack of data ... There are some signs of bending of winds but no clear cut LLC is showing up ... but there is a lot of missing data ...

That area has suddenly flared up after I posted by Tropical Outlook earlier ...

#4 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jul 05, 2003 7:18 pm

As stormsfury said no data yet by quicScat on this wave but only looking at the floater pics you can see a good signature of it and some little bands going from SW to NE.Convection must persist for 24 hours and if by tommorow at this time it has done so then things can get interesting.

chadtm80 · #5 Postby **chadtm80** » Sat Jul 05, 2003 7:18 pm

Sure does Look Interesting.. Loop http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

ColdFront77 · #6 Postby **ColdFront77** » Sat Jul 05, 2003 7:26 pm

It appears that it has a bit of a northerly component... doesn't need much of one to miss South America.

Lindaloo · #7 Postby **Lindaloo** » Sat Jul 05, 2003 9:00 pm

Certainly looks like a spin to me.

chadtm80 · #8 Postby **chadtm80** » Sat Jul 05, 2003 9:27 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook

Statement as of 10:30 PM EDT on July 5, 2003

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
Cloudiness...showers...and thunderstorms over the western Caribbean
Sea...the southeastern Gulf of Mexico...the Yucatan Peninsula...and
portions of Central America are associated with a tropical wave
interacting with an upper-level low. Tropical cyclone formation is
not expected.
A westward-moving tropical wave is located about 900 miles east of
the Windward Islands. Shower activity associated with this system
has increased slightly this evening. Additional development...if
any...is likely to be slow.
Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through
Monday.
Forecaster Pasch

Toni - 574 · #9 Postby **Toni - 574** » Sat Jul 05, 2003 10:37 pm

Well, you don't have to look at that loop for long to see that there is a nice spin. Does need to climb a little bit to stay over water. If it doesn't collide with land we may be in for business again real soon! :o

#10 Postby **wxman57** » Sat Jul 05, 2003 11:14 pm

It's not too far south. In fact, it's right about where Lili formed:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

[url]

But finding a low-level circulation on such a weak systsem with IR imagery is not very easy. It's easy to be fooled at night, particularly with color-enhanced images. The changing colors can trick you into thinking you see a rotation. Best to wait for visible images in the morning.[/url]

Steve H. · #11 Postby **Steve H.** » Sat Jul 05, 2003 11:39 pm

For the Caribbean. If this keeps merrily rolling along I think we'll see our next TD by 24, maybe 36 hours. Then Claudette. Like the environment and its in a moist atmosphere....high to the north. What more could da girl want?? Seriously though, looks like the best shot from the eastern Caribbean/Atlantic yet....warmer waters ahead now. Cheers!!

Toni - 574 · #12 Postby **Toni - 574** » Sat Jul 05, 2003 11:59 pm

wxman57 wrote:It's not too far south. In fact, it's right about where Lili formed:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

[url]

But finding a low-level circulation on such a weak systsem with IR imagery is not very easy. It's easy to be fooled at night, particularly with color-enhanced images. The changing colors can trick you into thinking you see a rotation. Best to wait for visible images in the morning.[/url]

Lili formed and headed for the Gulf, Let's not have a repeat!

If it's spinning with visibles tomorrow, then we may in fact just see this thing start to take off. Thanks for the info wxman!

OtherHD · #13 Postby **OtherHD** » Sun Jul 06, 2003 12:00 am

Shear doesn't look to be a problem as long as the trough ahead doesn't come to a screeching halt. It's been moving in tandem with the wave and is well ahead of it. Check a CIMSS shear tendency analysis and there is basically no shear at all. Dry air though...that may be a problem.

Toni - 574 · #14 Postby **Toni - 574** » Sun Jul 06, 2003 6:24 am

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Looks like a clear spin to me this AM at about Lat. 10 and Lon. 50. Looks like a lot of good outflow also. I would not be suprised to see this thing get kicking today. 8-)

jabber · #15 Postby **jabber** » Sun Jul 06, 2003 6:29 am

Looks pretty healthy to me. The NHC even gives here a chance. Need to go look some model runs.

#16 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Jul 06, 2003 6:30 am

http://www.storm2k.org/Weather-Central/ ... lantic.htm

Discussion from TPC says it has potential for some development and has a low of 1009 mbs at 11n-49w.Pressures are low in the area so guys this may well develop if organization continues and convection persists.

Stormsfury · #17 Postby **Stormsfury** » Sun Jul 06, 2003 9:30 am

The only thing the system hasn't done just yet is ... close off a LLC, otherwise ... This morning's visible and IR runs reveal a clear spin with the system and it continues to maintain convection quite nicely ...

There's a couple of problems, though .... dry air to the north, and the system is progressing into the Eastern Caribbean, if it doesn't hit land ...
If the system hasn't developed by the time it hits the Eastern Caribbean (climatology speaking), it probably won't develop there, which is the funny thing is I don't see shear being a problem with this one.

Colin · #18 Postby **Colin** » Sun Jul 06, 2003 10:46 am

Good points, SF......this system will definitley be something to watch.........I give it a 15-25% chance of developing at this time......

#19 Postby **wxman57** » Sun Jul 06, 2003 11:08 am

It already does appear to have a circulation (using satellite) - the hardest part for any disturbance. Center looks to be near 10.7N/51.8W. However, QuickSCAT continues to show just a wave:

http://manati.wwb.noaa.gov/dataimages21 ... MBas26.png[url]

It could be this system's center is just too tiny for Quickscat to pick up, though. I'd say that chances for development would be in the 50-60% range. It's at a very delicate point now - the slightest unfavorable conditions could wipe it out.[/url]

#20 Postby **wx247** » Sun Jul 06, 2003 11:12 am

The NHC says that recon. may investigate tomorrow. They also say that a TD could form here in a day or so. Looks like things are starting to get interesting again...

Tropical wave east of windwards is well organized

Tropical wave east of windwards is well organized

Not Too Far South

I like this One....the Best Shot So Far

Re: Not Too Far South

Circulation Evident

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