Wed., 9th of April 08 till Friday 11th outbreak-thread

[Texas Snowman]

Friend in Whitesboro, Texas said that he and family hid in neighbor's tornado cellar. Upon their exit, he saw what he described as a vortex near the SE part of town.

Storm chaser on KXII TV in Sherman also reported a brief spin-up in that same area. He was also observing a definite wall cloud north of Hwy. 82.

[RL3AO]

Six reported tornadoes seems low, but the SPC has probably been too busy to update.

[6SpeedTA95]

Looks like an overnight outbreak coming...

If that does happen, would it be expected or unexpected? It looks pretty severe out there right now and I thought tonight wasn't going to be that big.

From my point of view mets who suggested an upgrade were not that wrong.

I agree.

The tulsa mets expect it. They showed the moderate encompassing the entir etulsa metro, including Osage county, washington county and a few counties in southern kansas.

[6SpeedTA95]

As strong as the storms are over west texas it is pretty concerning since the atmosphere will become more prime for severe weather the further east and the later in the night these storms go.

[6SpeedTA95]

Six reported tornadoes seems low, but the SPC has probably been too busy to update.

That may be about right, they issued a lot more warnings but not telling how many were actually on the ground. I think we've got one or two confirmed in texas, 2 or 3 in oklahoma and one in arkansas so that seems about right at least at this point.

[6SpeedTA95]

lol jesus....I40 is being reported as icy due to tennis ball sized hail west of fort smith

[wx247]

6Speed... how late are you up for tonight?

[RL3AO]

SPC should add a 5z day 1 outlook. It seems strange to go from 1z to 12z without an outlook. Especially during these overnight situations.

[6SpeedTA95]

Spiro oklahoma in the path of a dangerous storm. Ft smith under the gun again.

[6SpeedTA95]

6Speed... how late are you up for tonight?

Oh, I'll probably hit the sack shortly because it looks like i'll be back up around 3:30 or 4am

[wx247]

Haha, all right! It looks like an active night lifting north into your area before too long. I am waiting to see what kind of watch goes up within the hour.

[CrazyC83]

SPC should add a 5z day 1 outlook. It seems strange to go from 1z to 12z without an outlook. Especially during these overnight situations.

Few people are up overnight though to catch and use the outlooks though. They should issue special outlooks when warranted though (like the NHC special advisories), and this would be a good time for one - extending the MDT north and east.

[6SpeedTA95]

Haha, all right! It looks like an active night lifting north into your area before too long. I am waiting to see what kind of watch goes up within the hour.

Yea me to. I sent the wife to bed, I told her thi smay be a long night. Judging from TX that looks like its going ot be the case.

[wx247]

Agreed crazy! I think a special update is warranted very rarely, but when it is needed... should be done.

[6SpeedTA95]

McAlester has just been slammed tonight.

[6SpeedTA95]

lol winterstorm warning in colorado, wyoming, nebraska, south dakota and minnesota


National weather service earning their money tonight, wow.

[Bunkertor]

MAF seems to be under the gun right now. Three tornado signatures and some MCS out there.

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0610
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1001 PM CDT WED APR 09 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NWRN TX INTO S-CNTRL/SERN OK

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 179...180...

VALID 100301Z - 100400Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 179...180...CONTINUES.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES...
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ALONG RETREATING
WARM FRONT. A NEW TORNADO WATCH /REPLACING WW/S 179 AND 180/ WILL
BE REQUIRED PRIOR TO 04Z.

LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATED PRIMARY SURFACE LOW S OF MAF WITH
ATTENDANT LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING NEWD TO ABI..W OF
GYI...TO SECONDARY SURFACE LOW OVER FAR E-CNTRL OK. THIS PRIMARY
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEWD INTO NWRN OR N-CNTRL TX BY
10/06Z...LIKELY RESULTING IN THE NWD MOVEMENT OF ATTENDANT WARM
FRONT. AIR MASS S OF THIS BOUNDARY IS QUITE MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID/UPPER 60S...SUPPORTING MLCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG INVOF WARM
FRONT TO 1500-2000 J/KG FARTHER S IN THE WARM SECTOR.

VWPS FROM ABI AND FTW INDICATE A CONSIDERABLE INCREASE OF LLJ IN THE
0.5 - 1.0 KM LAYER WHICH IS RESULTING IN EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES OF
400-600 M2/S2 ALONG RETREATING BOUNDARY. THUS...EXPECT
ONGOING...SURFACE-BASED TSTMS OVER N-CNTRL TX AND SERN OK TO
CONTINUE WITH A THREAT OF TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

FARTHER UPSTREAM...THE MAJORITY OF TSTM ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY
ELEVATED N OF SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE TX LOW ROLLING PLAINS...NWRN
TX INTO CNTRL OK. WITH TIME...ADDITIONAL SURFACE-BASED STORMS MAY
FORM INVOF RETREATING FRONT...AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW AND EVOLVING
LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. SHOULD MORE DISCRETE...SURFACE-BASED TSTM
DEVELOPMENT OCCUR...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE
OF LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR.

..MEAD.. 04/10/2008


ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...

32939898 33599890 34629741 35499648 35659544 35399524
35309492 34589507 33229541 32979607 32849849

[Category 5]

Any updates on Fort Smith? Any confirmations/damage reports?

[Texas Snowman]

Squall line really getting cranked near Midland...